MAFAP Theory of change
FAO is initiating the second phase of its Monitoring and Analysing Food and Agricultural Policies (MAFAP) programme, to be implemented from today until 2019. During the first phase of the programme, implemented between 2009 and 2013, FAO worked with governments and national policy research institutes in ten African countries to create a consistent set of analyses assessing the effect of policy on prices in countries’ key agricultural value chains and on public expenditure. In addition, FAO developed national capacity to institutionalize policy monitoring in national institutions, promoting evidence-based policymaking that is conducive to agricultural development.
The quantitative and coherent ex-post analysis of policy effects provides important evidence on policy-motivated and structural disincentives, national policy inconsistencies, public expenditure misallocations, and market distortions, which constrain the achievement of national and international agricultural development goals.
In Phase II, MAFAP will move beyond the (ex-post) analysis alone. Based on partner governments’ policy priorities, commitments and demand, and building on inclusive policy dialogue, it will support governments in developing countries to articulate alternative policy reform options and analyze the costs and benefits of reform, so that governments are better placed to assess and approve policy changes based on reliable and relevant evidence.
At the same time, FAO recognizes that policy change does not take place in a vacuum, nor do reform processes generally follow a pattern of linear change. For that reason, FAO will consistently use tools for political economy analysis to support its policy engagement. Where appropriate, it will seek partnerships with sector stakeholders, including the private sector, producers’ organizations, NGOs and donors. As a result, MAFAP II will follow a strategy that is based on both internal (government and related agencies) and external (other sector stakeholders) engagement. This document sets out the pathway of expected change processes that will allow MAFAP to achieve its program outcomes and long-term impact.
