Name Aziz Arya Age 38 Place of birth Afghanistan Languages English, Italian, Persian, Pashtu, Hindu/Urdu,

Job title
Economist

“I work for FAO’s Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture. Our job is to stay on the look out for possible food crisis and sound the alarm if we see one coming. I monitor the food situation in countries of the former Soviet Union, the Balkans and Afghanistan.

How can we forecast a food crisis?

First we estimate how much food each country needs based on its population. Then we measure the country’s ability to meet these needs.

This means that we have to keep track of lots of different things. Has enough rain fallen to grow crops? Has there been too much rain? Are fields flooded? What is the state of the reservoirs? Have there been serious locust infestations or other pest outbreaks?

Economics are just as important. If crop prices fall, farmers can face poverty. Will they be able to afford farm supplies for next years’ crops? Will they be able to buy food? We also look at exchange rates and income levels. If a country’s currency loses value, imports become more expensive. Will people be able to afford imported food?

We use this very detailed information to make up a country’s food balance sheet. If our forecasts show that a country is heading towards a crisis, we work with WFP to organize a mission to find out what things are like on the ground.

People often have ways of coping with hard times. They can usually find ways of getting by until things get better. But when a country has gone through years of drought or conflict and is extremely poor, it doesn’t take much to create a situation where mass starvation is a real possibility.

When we see an emergency coming, we alert governments and donors. If we sound the alarm one or two months ahead we’re too late. We aim for six-month warning.

It’s important work. If we don’t do this I’m convinced there would be silent starvations. Governments would be afraid to sound the alarm out of shame or a fear of looking incompetent. Many people would die.”