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Climate resilience in Central Asia’s mountains

26.04.2018

Kyrgyzstan is one of the most vulnerable countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia to the impacts of climate change, primarily due to the sensitivity of its agricultural systems to climatic changes. Higher temperatures could cause altered precipitation patterns and more frequent heat waves, leading to increased aridity and drought, particularly in mountain pastures. Since Kyrgyzstan’s land area is 90 percent mountainous, it is increasingly important to build the resilience of mountain communities to climate change so they can continue thriving.

The University of Central Asia (UCA)’s Mountain Societies Research Institute (MSRI) conducted household surveys to measure climate-resilience trends. They developed case studies of villages in the Naryn, Bazar-Korgon and Batken regions of Kyrgyzstan, which are classified by the World Food Programme as having high recurrences of poverty and high or medium risk of natural climate change shocks.

The MSRI used a new tool to conduct the household surveys. The tool uses generalized and shock-specific subjective resilience measures to evaluate households and takes into account different contexts and demographics. “This new measuring tool has been designed using a subjective approach to question design that emphasizes the power of local people to understand and communicate their own resilience capacities without the need for long and complex surveys,” said Lira Sagynbekova, MSRI Research Fellow.

The new tool is an alternative to the traditional approach of choosing and evaluating household characteristics to measure resilience. “It was tested during a household survey and the results show that it is a strong predictor of household food security,” said Abbie Clare, Researcher with the Pathways to Resilience in Semi-Arid Economies (PRISE) project at the London School of Economics (LSE) and Political Science.

The MSRI in collaboration with LSE organized a workshop on “Predicting future food security: a new method for measuring resilience using data from Kyrgyzstan” on 13 April 2018, in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. At the workshop, the tool was presented by Clare, Sagynbekova and Akylbek Rahmanberdi from the Alliance of Central Asian Mountain Communities (AGOCA). The workshop targeted stakeholders involved in the practical aspects of planning, delivering and/or analysing field surveys on the topics of food security, climate change adaptation and development.

The event brought together researchers, representatives of the Kyrgyz State Agency for Environmental Protection and Forestry, the Ministry of Emergency and the Ministry of Agriculture of Kyrgyzstan, and experts from non-governmental organizations and development agencies including the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the World Food Programme.

Developed within the framework of the PRISE project, the tool is context-transferable and can identify which households can maintain their food security in the face of shocks and stressors. During the workshop, Rahmanberdi stressed the practical use of the tool and how results have proved its efficiency. “After testing the tool, we have found a strong demand for a methodology to assess the resilience of our [AGOCA] member villages. There is also a possibility to use the survey’s short subjective resilience questions as a monitoring tool or as an early warning system,” said Rahmanberdi. “They are quick, could be done over the phone, and may provide early indication of slow onset shockssuch as drought or livestock disease.”

The PRISE project is a five-year project funded by the International Development Research Centre of Canada and the Department of International Development of the United Kingdom spans seven countries, including Burkino Faso, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Senegal, Tajikistan and Tanzania. It aims to spur climate-resilient development in these countries by working with local communities, universities and policy-makers to produce research and policy outputs that explore themes such as value chain management, private sector development, local community resilience and the impacts of migration.