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Climate monitoring
Weather forecasts provide information about the weather expected over the next few days.
Seasonal forecasts provide information about long-term trends and normally provide outlooks for 3-month-averaged temperature and precipitation up to 6 months ahead. The outlooks are based on predicted probabilities for three categories; below normal, near normal and above normal for the region and time of year. Skill for these long-range outlooks is substantially lower than for the shorter-range predictions, and the techniques used here for seasonal forecasting are still at an early stage of development. With a knowledge of current sea surface temperatures in the tropical ocean basins, and model predictions of how the oceans will likely evolve during the next several months, numerical models of the atmosphere are used to predict mean seasonal patterns of temperature and rainfall. But because the atmosphere is a chaotic system, small changes in the current conditions can result in big differences in the seasonal patterns the model predicts. So, a single prediction does not tell the whole story. Each prediction is just one possible outcome. This problem is solved by doing a number of predictions. The combination of several of these predictions is the best estimate of the next season's mean climate.

Temperature and precipitation global prediction
Seasonal Forecast (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)
Global Forecasting Centre for Southern Africa (GFCSA)
Seasonal Weather Forecast (University College London)
Seasonal Forecasting (UK Met. Office)
Climate Update for Tropical South Pacific Islands (National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, New Zealand)
2000 - Agrometeorology and Sustainable Agriculture [99 kb]

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