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El Nino
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El Niņo Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

El Niņo is a local warming of surface waters which takes place in the entire equatorial zone of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean off the Peruvian coast and which affects the atmospheric circulation world-wide. La Niņa refers to the "cold" equivalent of El Niņo.

Current ENSO condition and forecast (16 June, 2014)

Borderline of ENSO neutral to a weak El Niņo condition

Strong: 1.5°C and more; Moderate: 1.0°C and more; Weak: 0.5°C and more; Neutral less than 0.5°C above/below average SST.

(compiled from information published by NOAA CPC and IRI)

Typical ENSO-related temperature and precipitation patterns can be found on NOAA CPC web sites: El Niņo: map, discussion; La Niņa: map, discussion. They can be summarized in the following table.

El Niņo

Both seasons
Drier than normal northern Australia, Indonesia, the Philippines
December-Januray-February
Drier than normal southeastern Africa, northern Brazil
Wetter than normal west coast of tropical South America (coastal Ecuador, northwestern Peru) , Gulf of Mexco, southeast and southwest coast of the US, South America (southern Brazil to central Argentina), equatorial eastern Africa
Warmer than normal western Canada, Alaska, northeast US, southeastern Asia, southeastern Africa, Japan, southern Alaska, western/central Canada, southeastern Brazil, southeastern Australia
Cooler than normal Gulf coast of the US
June-July-August
Drier than normal northwest India, eastern Australia
Wetter than normal northwest US (mountains), central Chile
Warmer than normal west coast of South America, southeastern Brazil

La Niņa

December-Januray-February
Drier than normal southeastern US, west coast of tropical South America (coastal Ecuador, northwestern Peru), equatorial eastern Africa
Wetter than normal Indonesia, Malaysia, northern Australia, southeastern Africa, northern Brazil
Warmer than normal southeastern US
Cooler than normal Alaska, western Canada, northern Great Plains, western US, southeastern Africa, Japan, southeastern Brazil
June-July-August
Drier than normal South America (southern Brazil to central Argentina)
Wetter than normal the Philippines, northwest India, southeastern Australia
Cooler than normal India, southeastern Asia, west coast of South America, portionsl of Central America

Current ENSO conditions and forecasts:

General ENSO information:

Seasonal forecasts:

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