"Food for Thought" Scenario Booklet
FAONILE published a booklet; “Demand Scenarios for Agricultural Produce in the Nile Basin for 2030”. It presents the results from the “Food for Thought” (F4T) scenario exercise, which aimed to examine the uncertain future of the main driver of water demand in the Nile basin: demand for agricultural produce.
Agricultural activities in the Nile countries account for 80% of all water use in the basin, while it represents the dominant economic sector in nine out of ten Nile riparians. Future agricultural development will inevitably impact the demand on the scarce Nile resource and is therefore a key-parameter in developing benefit-sharing plans. Local demand for agricultural produce is anticipated to grow in line with population increase and income growth, while commercial farming is increasingly producing agricultural commodities for export.
Projections of demand for food and other agricultural produce in the Nile countries are needed to estimate agricultural water use in the year 2030. This requires a set of demand scenarios describing possible futures in terms of population growth, the distribution between rural and urban populations, the development of commercial agriculture, and other drivers.
Scenarios are stories about the future, stories that can help us recognize and adapt to changing aspects of our environment. They are stories about the external environment that show how important events might evolve over time, and describe the logic behind these possible developments. They do not predict what will happen but identify what might happen.
This publication presents the results of an interactive process – Food for Thought (F4T) – in which some 25 participants from all Nile countries engaged in a joint scenario building exercise.
Four scenario stories were developed as a result of this process:
- Nile on its Own
- Joint Effort
- Unintended Consequences
- Double Burden
Click here to download the booklet