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Economic analysis of supply and demand for food up to 2030 – Special focus on fish and fishery products

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Year of publication: 2014
Pages: 106pp
Job Number: I3822
Office: Fisheries and Aquaculture Department
Corporate author: Fisheries and Aquaculture Economics and Policy Division
Personal author: Lem, A.; Bjorndal, T.; Lappo, A.


With the world’s population expected to reach 8.2 billion people by 2030, and with 842 million people estimated as having been undernourished in the period 2011–13, food supply will present a growing challenge in the next two decades. With increases in income along with demographic changes related to family size, population ageing and urbanization, and consumer trends such as concerns for healthy eating and sustainable production, there will be great shifts in demand and major changes in the composition of demand. This will in turn have an impact on food supply, which will need to both increase and become more efficient if it is to grow within the constraints presented by the availability of natural resources and existing technology. This publication presents projections of future food supply up to 2030, building on existing analyses but also providing more economic perspectives on the future evolution of food production. It thus looks at the main drivers of future demand and supply, with a particular focus on fisheries and aquaculture production. The analysis is supplemented with a number of new scenarios on fish production in the period until 2022.

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