LONG-TERM TRENDS OF FOREST RESOURCES AND FOREST PRODUCT MARKETS IN EUROPE
The following information provides important background data for a correct interpretation of the country profiles.
Please read before using the drop-down menu on the bottom of this page. Feedback from country experts is welcome to
improve the information and further increase reliability.
Please contact:volker.sasse@fao.org
General Assumptions and Notes on Methodology
The long-term country profile sheets which follow, provide comprehensive information about the major outcomes of the
European Forest Sector Outlook Study (EFSOS). EFSOS is a joint venture of FAO and
UNECE1.
The forest resources and forest products markets data presented are derived from statistics, analytical work on
historical trends and three forecast scenarios ("Baseline", "Integration" and
"Conservation"). For further information about the methodologies applied please refer to the background
EFSOS publications.
The tables and graphs are structured by countries, which are aggregated into the three sub-regions:
EU/EFTA2,
CEEC3 and
CIS4
(map) as well as Europe as a whole.
Such a comprehensive overview presents an efficient information base for governments and intergovernmental
organizations, the private forest sector industry and non-governmental organizations as well as for the public in
general. The overview is valuable for the scientific community as it invites researchers to verify the EFSOS outcomes,
based on their own knowledge.
Forest resources, historical trends
The information provided is based on the special analysis
The Development of European Forest Resources, 1950-
2000.
Forest area data presented refer to the definition of Forest Available for Wood Supply (FAWS). The volume of growing
stock, increment and fellings is shown in m3 over bark (m3 o.b.), removals in m3
under bark (m3 u.b.).
The area of FAWS and volume of growing stock and increment are calculated as ten-year averages by linear interpolations
between the data points provided by the national correspondents or taken from historical Forest Resource Assessment
(FRA) publications on Europe.
Removals data are taken from the UNECE/FAO timber database and converted into fellings. The ratio between fellings and
removals is taken from the TBFRA 2000 main report (ECE/TIM/SP/17), dividing removals (Table 50) by fellings (Table 47). These ratios
differ significantly between countries, and are questionable in a few cases.
In case of missing historical data the average growth rates of the previous countries were used to estimate the
historical developments in "new" countries (see more detailed explanation in "Production, net trade and
consumption, historical trends" below). Production, net trade and consumption, historical trends:
The source for production and consumption information is the UNECE/FAO Timber Database, which was analysed in a special
study Historical Trends in Forest
Products Markets, to be published in the Discussion Paper series of UNECE/FAO. Net trade is calculated as
the difference between consumption and production (by convention "+" = net exports, "-" = net
imports).
All information presents 10 year averages (1970: (1966-1975), 1980: (1976-1985), 1990: (1986-1995)). The data for 2000
is taken from the market modelling outcomes, where an average for the last five years (1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000)
was used as the base period for the projection scenarios.
It should be noted that there may be minor differences between the UNECE/FAO Timber Database, the current country
profiles, the analytical paper mentioned above and the econometric modelling database. They are constantly evolving as
information is validated or improved.
In order to produce totals for the sub-regions, in particular for CEEC and CIS, missing historical data for the period
of 1970 and 1980 (e.g. for countries which have emerged after the collapse of planned economies in Eastern Europe) were
estimated on the basis of additional hypothesis. It is assumed that forest products markets in the "new"
countries have developed with similar growth rates as in the previous state. The same approach was used for
historical trends of forest recourses. Forest resources, forecast scenarios The information is taken from the
Outlook for Forest Resources in Europe country tables, to be published in the Discussion Paper series of
UNECE/FAO.
The input data (FAWS, growing stock, net annual increment) were gathered from a special inquiry sent out to the TBFRA
national correspondents. Some countries did not reply to this inquiry, thus the TBFRA 2000 information was used for the
scenario modelling for the starting year (2000), neglecting that in various cases the inventory refers to some years
before 2000.
In some cases the roundwood removals, generated by the
EFISCEN model, did not fit to the derived roundwood demand generated by the market model. In case of a
"shortage" (i.e. EFISCEN removals data lower than the level of removals forecast in the trade and markets
model), additional net imports of roundwood were assumed and calculated in the following tables under net trade. In
most of the cases the volumes are negligible or can be explained, as in the case of Russia (see below).
In some other cases (Austria, Denmark, Greece, Turkey, Slovenia, Slovakia, Moldova and partly Ukraine) the original
EFISCEN roundwood removals are much higher than the derived roundwood demand from the trade and markets model. This is
obviously caused by problems in the data transfer between the market and forest resource modelling. In these cases the
UNECE/FAO secretariat has suppressed the "oversupply" by showing the derived roundwood production figure
also under roundwood removals.
As a result roundwood removals and roundwood production are identical in all following tables.
It should be noted, that in all cases where adjustments have been made to the differences between roundwood removals
provided by the EFISCEN model and derived roundwood demand (production) given by the market model, the growing stock
and increment data have not been attuned to the forecast of roundwood removals and fellings.
The "Conservation" scenario was not estimated partly because of limited resources, but also because it
appeared less of an issue. The reason for this is that the lower level of consumption and production of forest
products would lead to a derived roundwood demand lower than in "Baseline" and "Integration"
scenarios. Thus the pressure on forest resources to fulfil this demand would be lower than in these two scenarios.
However, the potential reduction in the area of FAWS due to higher conservation requirements and the resulting
decline in the production potential of the forest were not modelled.
In the case of Russia only the western part of this country is reflected in the EFSICEN outcomes, while the historical
trends of forest resources as well as production, net trade and consumption of forest products relate to the Russian
Federation in total. Thus the UNECE/FAO secretariat has applied the growth rates of forest resources for the forecasts,
using the most recent historical data as a starting point. It should be noted that this approach takes no account of
the much lower dynamic in the development of forest resources in the Eastern part of the Russian Federation, related
to the lower levels of increment and harvesting activities there. The western part of the country is more intensively
managed and intrinsically more productive, and accounts for less than a quarter of the country’s growing stock.
Further information is necessary before drawing reliable conclusions about the future development of the Russian forest resource with
the given level of removals. Production, consumption and net trade projections
The information for production and consumption is taken from the econometric analysis published under the title:Outlook for Forest Products Markets. The
country sheets of that report provide the base for the following tables.
"Production of roundwood" presents a derived roundwood demand, calculated on the basis of the
consumption, trade and production of sawnwood, wood based panels and paper and paperboard, with further assumptions
about the use of residues and recovery of waste paper.
Net trade is calculated as the difference between consumption and production.
The graphs on forest products production and consumption represent all forest products: roundwood, sawnwood, wood-based
panels, pulp, paper and paperboard, to provide an overall picture. It has to be recognized that a certain double
counting is inevitable in this approach.
The demographic data is gathered from UNECE Statistics. Global forest sector data
For a comparison of European and global developments an attempt was made to collect global data. In some cases an
extrapolation of the available data was necessary to complete the set. In particular the long term trends should be
used with a certain caution. The goal was however, to demonstrate differences between European and global trends.
The global data sets were collected from different sources (as of mid 2003):
