An FAO/GIEWS Crop Assessment Mission visited Sudan from 28 March to 7 April to forecast the outcome of the 1995 wheat harvest, review the final estimates of the main 1994/95 coarse grain crop and revise the cereal supply/demand balance for the 1994/95 marketing year. The Mission visited all of the wheat growing areas and received full cooperation from staff of the UN organizations, the relevant Government ministries, parastatal organizations and farmers.
The Mission forecasts the national output of wheat from the 1995 harvest at 514 000 tons. This is more than in either of the previous two years when yields were depressed by high temperatures but well below the exceptional production achieved in 1992. Government policy is to decrease the area of wheat in the large public agricultural corporations by excluding areas with irrigation problems or low fertility and to expand wheat production in the northern states, where temperatures are cooler and higher yields are obtained. Hence the area harvested is 19 percent less than last year. However, because temperatures were below or close to average for most of the season, supply of irrigation water was improved, input supply was adequate and there were no serious problems with pests and diseases, yield is forecast to be 33 percent higher.
National 1994/95 sorghum output is estimated at 3.5 million tons, 15 percent less than originally forecast in December, mainly due to lower yield in the mechanized rainfed sector.
Total cereal production is forecast at 4.8 million tons. Imports of cereals, mostly wheat, are forecast at 475 000 tons while exports of sorghum are anticipated to reach 400 000 tons. Reflecting the good harvest, stocks are expected to be replenished from the low levels of last year. The Mission estimates that stock build up will be 471 000 tons.
The Mission's forecast of 1994/95 wheat production is shown in Table 1. Table 2 shows the time series and percentage changes on last year. Total wheat production is forecast at 514 000 metric tons. This is more than in both of the previous two years when yields were depressed by above-average temperatures. The area harvested is 19 percent less than in 1993/94. Areas sown to wheat have declined from their peak in 1991/92 reflecting current government policy to concentrate wheat in the most productive areas. In the public agricultural corporations (Gezira, White Nile, Rahad, New Halfa), which account for about 70 percent of total production, areas of low fertility, with irrigation problems or a history of low yields, have been excluded. Government policy is to expand wheat production in the north, where temperatures are cooler and higher yields are obtained. Thus the total area harvested in Northern and River Nile States has increased by 23 percent. This is attributed to the provision of finance to open up new areas of wheat cultivation and for rehabilitation of pumps, and to the stated intention to pay farmers a grant of 7 140 Sudanese pounds (Ls) per hectare of wheat planted in these states.
Wheat is not tolerant of high temperatures and therefore in Sudan it is grown as a winter crop. As there is no rainfall from November to April its production is confined to the irrigated sector. Temperatures in 1994/95 were generally below average in November, December and February, and close to average for the rest of the season. As a result of the decline in area planted, adequate quantities of water were available and most crops received close to the optimum number of irrigations. However, in the large schemes problems of water distribution, due to silting and aquatic weeds, persist. A shortage of irrigation water was reported in White Nile State, where supplies were restricted by the Ministry of Irrigation and engine oil for pumps was scarce.
Reflecting the more favourable weather conditions, average wheat yield is forecast to be 1.77 t/ha, 33 percent higher than in 1993/94, but still 24 percent lower than in the record year of 1991/92.
The costs of wheat production have escalated mainly as a consequence of the continued decline in value of the Sudanese pound. In the Gezira and Managil scheme, where most wheat is produced, costs have increased from 5 020 Ls/hectare in 1990/91 to a reported 71 430 Ls/hectare in 1994/95, mainly due to increases in the costs of material inputs, particularly fertilizer. Although wheat prices have also increased, net returns to farmers from this crop are substantially lower than those obtained from cotton, sorghum and groundnuts. In some schemes it was reported that for farmers achieving average or below-average yields, wheat production was not profitable. As a consequence, and because wheat is not their staple cereal food crop, many farmers are now reluctant to grow wheat or do not apply optimal husbandry practises, negatively affecting yield potential. However, they are unable to grow alternative crops as they are required to follow a cropping pattern that is fixed by the rotation adopted by the central management. Difficulties in financing wheat production were reported in all centres.
At the start of the season sufficient quantities of seeds were available. Although problems with weed contamination and varietal purity were reported and also noted by the Mission during field visits, these factors are not considered to have had a large detrimental effect on yield. Supplies of fuel and availability of machinery for planting were also adequate. Land preparation and the quality of seedbeds were reported to be good. In most production centres crops were sown and received their first irrigation (effective sowing date) around the optimum time (mid-November). Sowing extended into December but was not considered to be late, except in White Nile and River Nile States, where it was delayed due to late provision of funds.
Sufficient quantities of fertilizers were available in the country. The amounts applied and timing of application were close to current recommendations except in White Nile and River Nile States, where shortages of funds resulted in late delivery and less than the required amounts being available to farmers.
In some production centres a single spraying was carried out for control of aphids, but no serious pest and disease problems were reported. The Mission noted that some crops in Rahad and New Halfa were badly infested with weeds. This was attributed to poor water distribution, causing flooding, resulting in poor crop growth and increased weed competition.
At the time of the Mission's visit harvesting had commenced, but insufficient combine harvester capacity slowed progress. However, it is envisaged that all wheat will be harvested before the onset of rains in late May.
Approximately 60 percent of total wheat production comes from the Gezira and Managil scheme. The area of wheat planted was less than in the last three seasons as a result of policy decisions made by the corporation to adhere to the rotation throughout the scheme and to exclude areas with a known history of low wheat yields, low fertility or irrigation problems. Adequate financial resources, seeds and fuel were available at the start of the season. Land preparation started in November and 65 percent of the total area had received its first irrigation by the end of the month. The balance of the area received its first irrigation by 15 December. The quality of seedbeds was reported to be good as a result of increased use of disc harrows during land preparation. Most of the scheme received fertilizer but the proportion of farmers applying less than the fully recommended amount was reportedly higher than last year, mainly because of increased costs. Although sufficient quantities of irrigation water were available, silting and aquatic weeds in the canals resulted in problems of water distribution in some areas. The whole of the scheme received 1 spray of pesticide for aphid control although the problem was not considered to be serious.
At the time of the Mission's visit 5 percent of the total wheat area had been harvested. Although the area planted was 26 percent less than last year, yield is forecast higher, mainly as a result of lower temperature.
Of the total wheat area in the state, 74 percent is administered by the White Nile Corporation and 26 percent is in private schemes. The area in private schemes was 74 percent less than last year as farmers switched from wheat to other winter crops, mainly vegetable and salad crops, because of the low returns from wheat production.
Sowing of wheat in the White Nile Corporation was delayed due to water supply restrictions imposed by the Ministry of Irrigation and late availability of funds to finance sowing operations. Scarcity of funds also resulted in late delivery of fertilizer and lower than recommended dosages. A shortage of engine oil restricted pumping of irrigation water. There were no serious pest problems and one spray, for aphid control, was applied to most of the area.
At the time of the Mission's visit harvesting had started in the private schemes, and was about to start in the corporation's areas. Local officials of the corporation reported that they had only recently been able to secure funds to start harvesting. However, they anticipated being able to complete the process before any substantial grain losses were incurred.
Although yield is forecast to be higher than last year, total production for the state is forecast to be 30 percent lower than last year, due to the decrease in area in the private sector.
Wheat is no longer grown by the Blue Nile Corporation, it having been replaced to some extent by sunflower. The area sown peaked at 13 000 hectares in 1990/91. However, yields obtained were consistently low, mainly due to problems of high temperature and water distribution. It is now grown only in an adjacent area by a small number of private farmers.
The area of wheat sown in the Rahad scheme was 23 percent less than last year. It was decreased because a decision to exclude areas where low yields had been obtained in the past and because farmers in the scheme are reluctant to grow wheat. All of the area sown received the recommended amounts of fertilizer and no shortage of irrigation water occurred. Pests were not a serious problem. However, some areas were badly affected by weeds as a result of rains in November, and, particularly, flooding due to poor land levelling.
Harvesting started on 21 March 1995. At the time of the Mission's visit only 25 combine harvesters were operating, in comparison to an estimated need of 40, due to difficulties in financing the harvesting operation.
Production is forecast to be 17 percent higher than last year, the increase in yield as a result of lower temperatures more than offsetting the 20 percent decrease in area.
In New Halfa Scheme the area of wheat planted was 12 percent less than last year. No problems with land preparation and sowing were reported and fertilizer was applied at the recommended rate to the whole area. Part of the scheme received one spray for control of aphids and no serious pest problems were reported.
The start of harvesting was delayed by lack of funds and at the time of the Mission's visit less than 1 percent of the total area had been harvested. The corporation had 23 combine harvesters available but another 37 would be required if the harvesting operation were to be completed within one month. Production is forecast to be 59 percent more than last year, mainly due to increased yields.
In the Northern State wheat is grown on individual farms or in larger schemes using irrigation water that is either pumped directly from the Nile or from boreholes. Areas adjacent to the Nile, including small islands, may be flooded in August. In these areas sowing may be delayed but soil fertility is improved by the silt that is deposited when the flood recedes. Local officials reported that in 1994 flooding had been quite extensive and although some canals and pump sites had been damaged, the level of the water table was high and considered to be suitable for permanent pumping.
In 1994/95, sowing started in mid-November and continued up until mid-January. It was reported that 75 percent of the total area was sown after the end of November, but most was completed by the end of December. The area sown was 46 percent more than in 1993/94. The state government had received 300 million Sudanese pounds (Ls) to bring new areas into wheat cultivation, and additional funds for rehabilitation of pumps. In addition, farmers were offered a grant of 7 140 Ls per hectare of wheat cultivated. At the time of the Mission's visit this had not been paid.
Most farmers interviewed reported that they had applied urea fertilizer, that conditions for wheat production in 1994/95 were generally better than in 1993/94 and that they were expecting higher yields. At the time of the Mission's visit harvest had just started.
Local officials reported that banks here faced severe difficulties in financing agricultural operations at the start of the season. This resulted in some delays in sowing, which started in early November but which was not completed until mid-January. The shortage of funds also resulted in the total area of wheat planted being 12 percent less than that originally planned despite, as in the Northern State, farmers being offered a grant of 7 140 Ls per hectare. In addition, a stock of only 35 000 sacks of urea was available for distribution against a requirement of 112 000 sacks. No problems had apparently been encountered with water supply or pests. At the time of the Mission's visit harvesting had just started. Local officials reported that although weather conditions were more favourable, yields were expected to be similar to those attained in 1993/94 because of the financing problems.
Revised estimates of yield and harvested area of sorghum and millet were obtained for all production centres in the irrigated and mechanized sectors. These account for over 75 percent of the total production of sorghum but less than 10 percent of the total production of millet. In the traditional rainfed sector revised estimates were available for sorghum in some states, but not from the main production centres in Kordofan and Darfur. In the case of millet, no revised estimates were available and the forecasts of the FAO/WFP December 1994 Mission have been used to calculate total cereal production. This will need to be revised when final estimates of production from the traditional rainfed sector are available.
A summary of the revised forecasts is shown in Table 3. Production of irrigated sorghum is only 1 percent less than originally forecast. However, production of mechanized rainfed sorghum is 22 percent less than originally forecast, mainly due to lower yields of late sown crops in the southern part of Gedaref, the largest production centre, but also delays in harvesting. At the time of the Mission's visit the harvest of sorghum was virtually complete and grain was being transported into storage.
The revised forecast of total cereal production is shown in Table 4. Total cereal production is forecast at 4.8 million tons. This is 12 percent less than originally forecast in December 1994, mainly due to lower yield and reduced production of sorghum from the mechanized rainfed sector. Production of wheat is 5 percent lower than forecast in December, mainly because yield was lower than expected in those schemes where financial difficulties were encountered.
The revised 1995 projected balance between grains availability and utilization is shown in Table 5.
Following this year's good cereal harvest and because of difficulties for exporting sorghum, stocks are expected to be replenished from the low levels of last year. A stock build-up of some 471 000 tons is estimated by the Mission.
From the total domestic availability of 4.3 million tons, 15 percent has been deducted for seed, livestock feed, other uses and losses. At the projected mid-1995 population level of 26.3 million and using "status quo" annual per caput consumption of 140 kg, total food consumption needs is close to 3.7 million tons. A switch from sorghum to millet consumption is expected this year as a result of the larger availability of millet in the traditional deficit areas in the west of the country. Reflecting both the downward revision in sorghum production and problems exporting the crop because domestic FOB prices are higher than the international prices, exports in marketing year 1995 (November/October) are forecast at 400 000 tons. Information supplied to the Mission indicated that by the end of March 1995, 200 000 tons of sorghum had already been exported, mainly through barter agreements. It is expected that the continued devaluation of the Sudanese Pound will favour exports in the remainder of the marketing year.
With total utilization of cereals of 4.8 million tons, the cereal import requirement in 1994/95 is estimated at 475 000 tons, mainly wheat, to be covered by commercial imports.
Rome, 19 April 1995