1993 saw a deterioration in the world food situation: a sharp drop in global output combined with a significant drawdown of stocks brought supplies close to the minimum necessary tosafeguard world food security. Decreases in the production of staple foods are especially serious for the most vulnerable households. The situation was particularly acute in sub-Saharan Africa, where there were major localized food crises. In general, a large proportion of the developing countries experienced a decline in food security, both in 1993 compared with 1992 and in 1991/93 compared with 1988/90. To meet anticipated cereal consumption needs in 1994/95 and to avoid a further draw-down in the "safety net" that global cereal stocks represent for world food security, an increase in global cereal production of between 3and 4 percent is required in 1994.
The situation is particularly acute in vulnerable households of developing countries.
Production
In 1993, global production of staple foods fell almost 4 percent below production in 1992. This decline was almost entirely accounted for by maize output in the United States. Developing and low-income food-deficit (LIFD) countries, in contrast, increased estimated production by nearly 2 million and 3 million tonnes respectively. Nonetheless, percaput cereal production in the majority of the LIFD countries continued to fall in 1993, continuing adisturbing trend.
1993 world cereal production was estimated at 1875 million tonnes, 5 percent below the previous year. Wheat supplies showed a marginal gain, reaching 709 million tonnes. The only significant increase in wheat production was in Asia, where the harvest included above - average to record crops. In Africa, following another year of drought, production remained closet other educed levels of 1992. World production of coarse grains dropped by about 80 million tonnes to make it almost 9 percent less than in 1992. Rice (paddy) production experience done of its sharpest declines in the past decade, by 8 million tonnes (1.4 percent) to 520 million tonnes.
Root sand tubers, which rank second to cereals in importance as staple foods, have continued to grow in importance assources of energy in take form any developing countries where they provide 10 percent of totals taple food in grain equivalent. World production of roots and tubers, incontrast to cereals, was up by 2 percent in 1993, reaching 150 million tonnes in grain equivalent. The growth was particularly pronounced in developing countries, especially in the LIFD countries (almost 4percent) which account for over three -quarters of world production.
Among the roots and tubers, cassava showed the greatest growth in production, by 7 percent compared with 1992. This expansion was concentrated in the major producing countries in Africa, particularly Nigeria, where harvests reached a record following a significant increase in plantings and continued adoption of pest-resistant, high-yielding varieties. Growth resumed in several Latin American cassava-producing countries - namely Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia and Paraguay - but production declined in the Far East, reflecting smaller crops in China and India. In Africa, harvests of yams and other minor roots and tubers increased. By contrast, potato and sweet potato output fell in many countries, especially in Asia.
The most important high-protein staples for food security, especially in developing countries, are pulses. With a global output of nearly 58 million tonnes in 1993, production of pulses was up by almost 4 percent over the previous year, approaching the record levels of 1990 and 1991. Asia accounted for most of this increase; in India and China, which together account for about one-third of global output, production was estimated at average to above-average. Output of pulses in the United States and the EC expanded. Harvests were average in Africa, while in the Near East and Latin America total production of pulses declined.
Global milk production experienced a slight (1 percent) decline, to 581 million tonnes. This reduction occurred mainly in Europe and the CIS. In the developing countries - which account for a third of world output - an increase was registered. In India, the developing world's largest milk producer, a 4 percent increase was assessed.
World meat production, constrained by increased feed costs and animal disease outbreaks, showed almost no growth (1 percent) in 1993. The developing countries' share in global meat production rose, though there was a drop in their overall production growth compared with previous years. A decline in production in Africa - where meat plays an important role in household food security - caused particular concern.
Global production of fats and oils showed a 2 percent increase in 1993, to 87 million tonnes. In the developing countries, production was estimated to have grown by 6 percent, with significant increases in soybean harvests in Brazil and in groundnut crops in India. Palm oil output also rose substantially in Indonesia and Malaysia.
Carryover stocks
Cereal harvests below 1992 levels resulted in a tighter global cereal supply in 1993. Global end-of-season stocks for the crop years ending in 1994 are estimated at 46 million tonnes, 13 percent below their opening level. This will erode the substantial buildup achieved in 1992/93. Nonetheless, the ratio of global cereal stocks at the end of the 1993/94 season to anticipated utilization in 1994/95 is expected to remain at 17 to 18 percent - the minimum set by FAO for maintaining world food security.
By the end of 1994, 19 percent (38 million tonnes) of the expected reduction in global cereal stocks is forecast to occur in the developed countries. Within the developing countries, most of the reduction is forecast in the LIFD countries and notably in China. The most dramatic fall in carryover stocks in 1993/94 is anticipated in maize, though stocks of wheat and rice are also expected to decline. The only significant increase in wheat carryovers is expected in the United States, mainly as a result of smaller exports.
Global coarse grain stocks are anticipated to be at over 21 percent below their opening levels, most of the decline being in the United States because of reduced harvests, while stocks in Canada and the EC are forecast to rise. In a number of countries in southern Africa a return to more normal coarse grain production levels is expected to allow some replenishment of the stocks that were sharply reduced following severe drought in 1992. Reductions in world output of paddy should result in world rice stocks being lowered by almost 15 percent by the end of 1994, the third consecutive year of decline.
Consumption
Total global cereal consumption is forecast to remain at 1 754 million tonnes in 1993/94, unchanged in relation to 1992/93. While consumption actually increased in the developing countries, it declined in the developed countries by over 2 percent. Global per caput food use also remained virtually the same as the previous year.
For the first time since 1982, global meat consumption declined. This reflected, in particular, the difficult economic conditions that continued to limit purchasing power in central and eastern Europe and the former USSR. Per caput consumption of meat actually rose in most developing regions except for Africa, where it dropped.
Food aid
Estimates of the total volume of food aid in cereals to be made available in 1993/94 stand at 11.4 million tonnes, nearly 23 percent less than the 15.2 million tonnes provided in 1992/93. This reflects a generally reduced level of budgetary allocations from all major donors except Australia. Total shipments of food aid to developing countries were estimated at 7.8 million tonnes, well below the levels provided during previous years. In particular, cereal food aid shipments to LIFD countries fell to 7 million tonnes, nearly one-third less than in 1992/93 and substantially less than in previous years. Sub-Saharan Africa continues to be the major recipient of food aid, as much as 60 percent of which is earmarked to meet emergency needs of refugees, displaced persons and drought-affected households. The CIS and Eastern European countries received around 4 million tonnes during this period, compared with 4.4 million tonnes in 1992/93.
Although food aid in cereals accounts for only 9 percent of total cereal imports in the developing countries, it is highly significant for many of them. For the group of LIFD countries in Africa, the share has reached as much as 37 percent in recent years. Food aid has played an important role in establishing food supplies in countries that lack the necessary resources to import needed cereals. This is illustrated by the fact that while 26 African LIFD countries experienced declines in per caput staple food production in 1993, per caput supplies fell in only nine of them.
In addition to cereal food aid, donors provided approximately 1.7 million tonnes of aid in non-cereal commodities, mainly vegetable oil, pulses, dairy products, meat and fish.
Trade
FAO's forecast of world cereal trade in 1993/94 is placed at 188 million tonnes, some 19 million tonnes (9 percent) below the volume in 1992/93. This is the second consecutive year of decline. All of the fall is accounted for by lower imports of wheat and coarse grains, in aggregate down by about 20 million tonnes or 10 percent from the previous season. International trade in wheat and wheat flour is estimated to be at 90.5 million tonnes, 11 percent below the previous year and the lowest level since the mid-1980s. Most of this decline is forecast in the developed countries. World trade in coarse grains should be at 82 million tonnes in 1993/94, an 11 percent decline from the 1992/93 level and the smallest volume since the 1970s. In contrast, world rice trade in 1993 has been assessed at 15.3 million tonnes, five percent up from the previous year and a record. Principally, this reflects greater imports into Japan as a result of the country's lower harvests.
Sluggish economic growth and some tightening of trade barriers resulted in a 2 percent decline in the volume of meat imports in 1993, though international trade in meat products is expected to recover in 1994.
Aggregate imports into the developing countries were forecast to be 44 million tonnes, some 3 million tonnes less than the estimated volume in 1992/93. The most significant decline in trade is expected to take place in southern Africa.
Conclusion
The decline in world food security in 1993/94 as compared to previous years has affected a very large proportion of the developing countries; even some that have traditionally enjoyed relatively high food security status have experienced lower production of staple food crops, placing greater pressure on vulnerable households. Many of the developing countries with low or critically low household food security are those experiencing continued civil strife or the aftermath of strife. And although several of the southern African countries that experienced food security problems arising from drought during 1991/92 seem to be on the way to recovery, the situation remains precarious for a number of them. Localized food crises continue to be a prominent concern, especially in sub-Saharan Africa.