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June 2002

El Niño situation and prospects

Agrometeorology Group,
Environment and Natural Resources Service
FAO Research, Extension and Training Division

07 June 2002

At present, the El Niño risk is best described by the sentence "enhanced likelihood relative to an average year" (IRI, the International Research Institute on Climate Prediction). In practice, uncertainty continues to prevail about a full-fledged El Niño, with Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) remaining slightly above average, while the typical response of the atmosphere is still not setting in. A warm phase is likely, but a full-intensity ENSO phase (El Niño proper) could hardly develop by the end of the year from the current situation.

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For related information, please see:

• El Niño situation and prospects - May 2002
• El Niño situation and prospects - April 2002