El Niño situation and prospects

Agrometeorology Group,
Environment and Natural Resources Service
FAO Research, Extension and Training Division

29 July 2002

IRI, the International Research Institute on Climate Prediction, and other leading sources now confirm that the likelihood of an El Niño taking place at the end of this year has risen to about 90%. Although it is difficult to quantify the "strength" of El Niño, it is also confirmed that we should expect a weak event with approximately one-third to one-half of the strength of the 1997-98 El Niño. Climate impacts should therefore be comparably weaker than those associated with the 1997-98 El Niño.

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For related information, please see:

El Niño situation and prospects - June 2002
El Niño situation and prospects - May 2002
El Niño situation and prospects - April 2002
An el Niño primer
El Niño fact files