Sustainable Development Banner
Environment

Environment

Conventions and agreements

Energy and technology

Geoinformation, monitoring and assessment

Policy and integrated management


Calendar

Links

Publications

Specials

Site map

Comments?

Copyright

Institutions
Knowledge
People



About SD

December 2002

El Niņo situation and prospects

Agrometeorology Group,
Environment and Natural Resources Service
FAO Research, Extension and Training Division

3 December 2002

The major monitoring systems (IRI, the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, BOM, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, NOAA/CPC, the US Climate Prediction Center) confirm that there is a virtually 100% probability of El Niņo conditions to persist for the remainder of 2002 and into early 2003. The forecasts are based on both Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature and the associated atmospheric circulation pattern, in particular a reversal of the trade winds.

Most of the computer predictions are now in favour of neutral conditions in five months' time, indicating neutral conditions in April 2003.

It is most likely that this will remain a moderate El Niņo, which is significantly weaker than the 1997-98 event.

Seasonal forecasts for January-February-March indicate typical patterns correlated to the El Niņo event.

Click here to go to the full article

For related information, please see:



SD Homepage Back to Top FAO Homepage