Posted April 1997
IN ORDER TO GAIN INSIGHT into problems related to the availability, collection and analysis of data for energy planning at area-based level, a case study was conducted by the FAO Regional Wood Energy Development Programme (RWEDP), based in Bangkok, Thailand, in Phrao District, Northern Thailand, that followed and documented the planning process from the identification of data requirements to the impact analysis of future trends and intervention options. Energy planning is hardly performed at this level as yet and it is desirable to perform planning at area-based level. Therefore the possibilities and limitations to come up with an energy plan using available data and analysis tools were studied, considering the required effort and skill for data collection and analysis. The study only used secondary data that are available from government agencies such as ministries, provincial and local administration offices and other organizations involved.
Several woodfuel demand and supply scenarios were developed, based on available data and background information. Uncertainty assessment was applied to evaluate the reliability and usefulness of the analysis. It was concluded that data collection was a time-consuming process because data had to be obtained from a wide variety of agencies, and some data were lacking. Nevertheless the assessment of the energy situation and forecasting through scenario development is possible and feasible at district level in the case of Thailand. A full report of the case study is available from RWEDP.
Many households, industries and other enterprises in developing countries depend on wood and other biomass as an energy source. Estimates on woodfuel consumption vary from 30 to 80 % of the total energy consumption for most countries and for all the member countries of the RWEDP , woodfuel consumption is still growing. Therefore it can be assumed that the dependence on woodfuels will not change in the near future. With an increasing population also the need for agriculture land increases, which may conflict with the need for wood. It is necessary to assess if these trends are sustainable and if not, which interventions are required. Therefore it is important to incorporate wood energy in the formulation and implementation of energy policies, plans and projects.
Policy formulation and planning requires the assessment and forecasting of the demand and supply of all forms of energy to identify (future) problems and to allow for the evaluation of intervention options. For this purpose data on several factors that have an impact on an energy system are needed. However, in most developing countries these data are hardly available to energy planners. Data that are used for energy planning are often based on information about sales of conventional fuels, supplied by its respective producers, and estimates of demand and supply of traditional fuels. Data that are required for wood energy planning may exist, but these usually have to come from different sources. Hence differences in objectives, definitions and scale may complicate comparison and integration.
The development of energy planning since the early seventies has shown the need for an integrated analysis of the demand and supply of all energy forms (including traditional) in relation to a countrys economy and environment, considering inter-sectoral relationships and social impacts of energy trends and policies. More recently it has become apparent that rural energy, due to its site-specific nature, requires a decentralized approach, i.e. the demand and supply assessment, forecasting and plan formulation and implementation for a distinct area, defined either by administrative boundaries or by factors such as agro-ecology, economy, social or cultural characteristics.
Unfortunately, at present energy planning in most RWEDP member countries occurs mainly at national level, with an emphasis on conventional fuels. Energy planning at local level is usually not conducted because it is assumed that data are not available and decentralized (energy) institutions do not exist or they lack the capabilities and responsibilities to formulate and implement decentralized energy plans. Few if any practical experience of area-based energy planning has been documented. Therefore possibilities and limitations of area-based energy planning with respect to data collection and analysis are hardly known.
For more information please contact:
Wim Hulscher (e-mail: Wim.Hulscher@field.fao.org)
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