Posted February 1998

Population Change - Natural Resources - Environment Linkages in East and Central Africa

1. Population and natural resources: the background

The degree of urbanization also varies considerably in the sub-region, but it is never very high. It is very low in the mountain countries as well as in Eritrea, but reaches 40 percent and more in Nigeria, Liberia and the Central African Republic. (Nigeria is virtually the only country in the region to have an extensive urban network, while in others the urban population tends to be largely concentrated in the capital.) The overall proportion of urban population is 29 percent, significantly under the averages for Africa (36 percent) or all developing countries (38 percent).

The overall growth of urban population is rapid by world standards: 5.3 percent annually during 1990-95, despite negative growth rates in two countries affected by civil strife. (During the same period, the corresponding rate was 2.4 for the whole world, 3.4 for developing regions and 4.4 for Africa.) Despite this rapid growth, however, the urban proportion in the majority of the 13 countries is not expected to reach 50 percent before the year 2030.

The amount of cropland per caput for the whole sub-region as of 1993 was 0.27 hectare, which is the average for Africa (the world average is 0.26 hectare, and that for all developing countries is 1.8 hectare).

The amount of forest and woodland per caput for the sub-region was 0.67 hectare, but most countries had much lower values (without Chad and the Central African Republic, the average would fall to 0.40 hectare). By comparison, the African average is 1.16 hectare and the world average is 0.75 hectare.

Renewable water resources vary enormously from one country to another. The sub-regional average is 11 cubic meters (m3) per caput per day, to be compared with the world average of 19 m3. Nine countries appear to have a low unit supply of under 10 m3; Kenya, Burundi and Rwanda are particularly affected.

Where apparent water abundance is explained by the existence of a large or relatively large stream, caution must be exercised in interpreting the indices because, depending on population distribution, the portion of the population that is actually able to use the water resources may be quite limited (in general, much of this type of supply is lost to the sea or to the next riparian country). In addition, water that is not available at the right place and time can be considered as a resource in a practical sense only at great cost, if at all, so interpreting data on average water availability necessitates in all cases to take into account the discrepancies [i] between the spatial distribution of the population and that of water resources; and [ii] between the distribution of human needs over the year and the seasonal fluctuations of availability.

2. Population and environment seen from Rio

2.1 Main environmental issues in the region

2.2 Population aspects of environmental issues and policies

• Sierra Leone included in its "problem areas" the population growth rate (2.8 percent per annum), the unbalanced rural-urban population distribution and the young age structure. Its account of policy measures addressing or contributing to address environmental problems included:
  • a reference to the National Population Policy, with an emphasis on regulating population size;
  • the draft sectoral plans, including agriculture and the environment but also maternal and child health and family planning;
  • the management of demographic change (by guaranteeing access to MCH/FP services for all);
  • the creation of a population and environment data bank.

• Ghana only mentioned urbanization as a problem, because of its impact on marine and coastal degradation. On the policy side, consequently, only the need to manage the urban environment was mentioned.

• Nigeria expressed concern over the projected continued population growth at 2.8-3 percent per annum and a resulting 300 million population size in 2022. In effect, when listing key priority areas for environment and development, the report placed "managing demographic change and population pressures" at the second rank. Those pressures were seen mainly in the urban context as the report emphasizes the enormity and complexity of the housing problem.

• The Central African Republic expressed concern in respect of:
  • the unequal distribution of the population over the national territory;
  • the rapid rate of population growth compared to that of economic growth (2.5 percent to 1.5 percent);
  • the unorganized migration and spread of human settlements, and the pressure it exerts on the forests, natural habitats and wildlife.

• For Uganda, a problem area was the high and increasing rate of population growth (2.5 percent) and the high proportion of dependent population (about 54 percent).

• Rwanda mentioned among problem areas the high population density(leading to progressive disappearance of farmland and depletion of natural reserves(and the high rate of population growth (3.7 percent). Consequently, "curbing population growth" appeared among the priorities on environment and development (the target of bringing the population growth rate down to 3.1 percent by 2000 was mentioned).

• The Burundi report cited the problem of population growth at about 3.1 percent, "which exerts pressure on meagre land resources". It also mentioned the difficulty "to protect nature reserves effectively and at the same time cater for the development of adjacent populations".

• Tanzania noted that the "population growth is high, and pressures on resources are likely to increase". The rate of population growth was also a concern for Kenya (at 3.4 percent), mainly cited as an exacerbating factor in the housing situation: urban growth "stands at 5-6 percent a year ... rapid urbanization is quickly followed by slums".

• Ethiopia also considered is population growth rate (just under 3 percent a year) as a problem area. At the response level, the report was the only one in the region that envisaged population distribution as a policy instrument: "To cope with the present population growth and environmental degradation, both permanent and seasonal migration should be promoted ... from densely populated areas to those with under-utilized land and labour deficits".

In practice, although the countries recognized the role of population factors in environmental degradation, few mentioned population policy as a facilitating factor in environmental protection. Let us now see how governments looked at a qualitative aspect of population factors(one of special interest to UNFPA programmes(namely the dimension of women's roles and place in environment and development policies.

• Sierra Leone posed as a principle the value of recognizing the role of women in improving the environment and population planning;
• Chad intended among other measures to 'sensitize' women and encourage them "to get involved in environmental and development activities".
• Rwanda listed a series of needed programmes for women, ranging from literacy and educational actions to specific actions in the environmental sector like "sensitizing women to rational management of freshwater and energy resources, hygienics and sanitation".

Finally, let us look at governments' declared intentions regarding environmental education, since programme-wise the latter can often be a convenient entry point for population themes:

• Sierra Leone cited among intervention areas the promotion of environmental education.
• Chad indicated its intention to promote environmental education, essentially through the school system.
• Central African Republic had plans to "educate, train and inform the people, especially women", integrating environmental considerations in school programmes; promoting actions oriented towards women in the area of environmental hygiene; etc.
• Burundi's strategy included the promotion of public awareness and education through the mass media, schools and literacy programmes, with a broadening of the role of NGOs in training and education.
• Tanzania aimed at the promotion of environmental education, awareness and knowledge, targeting policy makers, villagers, townspeople, school children and even tourists.

Overall, attention to population dimensions is widespread but not deep. Phenomena other than population growth are rarely mentioned, despite e.g. the relevance of population distribution, migration and urbanization for natural resource use and reciprocal impacts of population and the environment.

On the policy side, only four countries see some value in slowing population growth to facilitate population-environment adjustments. Likewise, few countries seem to perceive qualitative dimensions such as the relationship between a key group like women and the environment (to the management of which they largely contribute), or to appreciate the necessity to invest in environmental education in order to start transforming the population's attitude and practices. Certainly some advocacy work is called for in these areas.

3. Land degradation and its factors

3.1 Levels of degradation

The seriousness of de gradation also must be taken into account. A handy way of doing this is to assign weighting coefficients to the percentages of Table 3: assigning 1 to the percentage of lightly degraded areas, 2 to that of moderately degraded and 3 to that of strongly degraded ones, for instance, one sees that:

• Burundi and Rwanda are the two most affected countries (weighted indices: 137 and 135 respectively);
• then come Nigeria, Ethiopia/Eritrea and Uganda (56, 55 and 48);
• then Sierra Leone and Kenya (31 and 30);
• then Chad and Ghana (25 and 24).

3.2 Types of degradation

Chemical degradation has a relatively high impact in some of the countries reviewed here(Liberia, Sierra Leone, Burundi and Rwanda in particular. This class of problems includes: salinization; the loss of soil fertility (nutrients, organic matter), through depletion from cultivating poor or mediocre soils without sufficient fertilization or through erosion; and pollution.

Physical degradation has very little incidence in this sub-region. It consists mainly of soil compaction and the waterlogging of irrigated areas.

3.3 Causes of degradation and population factors

The GLASOD assessment addressed the direct causes of land degradation for each map unit, recognizing four causes:

• deforestation and removal of natural vegetation;
• over-exploitation of wood cover for domestic use;
• overgrazing;
• agricultural activities.

Deforestation is a cause of degradation when the land that is cleared is steeply sloping or has shallow or easily erodible soils, and when clearance is not followed by good management. It is the dominant cause in only two countries here (Liberia and Central African Republic) and usually does not reach the level of its relative incidence world-wide, where it accounts for 36 percent of total degradation. But it affects most countries to a significant extent.

The role of population dynamics vis-à-vis other factors in deforestation is a much debated issue. In much of the sub-region forest clearance appears to have occurred mostly under the pressure of needs for more cropland and pastures; in addition, forest degradation occurs because of excess livestock grazing in wooded areas as well as collection of wood for human use, especially fuel.

Overcutting of vegetation occurs when people cut forests, woodlands and shrublands(to obtain timber, fuelwood and other products(at a pace exceeding the rate of natural regrowth. This is frequent in semi-arid environments, where fuelwood shortages are often severe. The phenomenon is significant in three countries here (Chad, Nigeria and Central African Republic).

Overgrazing is the grazing of natural pastures at stocking intensities above the livestock carrying capacity; the resulting decrease in the vegetation cover is a leading cause of wind and water erosion. It accounts for 35 percent of the total extent of degradation world-wide. Here it affects eight countries, with a very high relative incidence in Chad, Kenya and Ethiopia/ Eritrea (50 percent or more of the degraded area).

Agricultural activities that can cause land degradation include shifting cultivation without adequate fallow periods, absence of soil conservation measures, cultivation of fragile or marginal lands, unbalanced fertilizer use, and faulty planning or management of irrigation(in other words, land mismanagement in general. At the global level they account for 28 percent of the total land degradation. In this sub-region they are a prominent factor in almost all countries (the exceptions being Chad, the Central African Republic and Ethiopia/Eritrea) and by far the major factor in Rwanda and Burundi.

The role of population factors in land degradation processes obviously occurs in the context of the underlying causes. Population pressure operates through giving rise to land shortages, and through other mechanisms as well. Improper agricultural practices, for instance, occur only under constraints such as the saturation of good lands under population pressure which leads settlers to cultivate too shallow or too steep soils, plough fallow land before it has recovered its fertility, or attempt to obtain multiple crops by irrigating unsuitable soils.

4. A note on water resource issues

Water issues in Africa are serious, generally due to the irregularity and unreliability of supply over time and space. Average (per caput) supply at the country level is often low, and continued population growth constantly reduces that supply as resources are fixed. In effect, situations in 2025 have been projected based on recent population projections and renewable water supply estimates (Engelman and LeRoy, 1993) using the classical scale of levels of competition for water [5]. Those calculations show that:

• Ghana, Tanzania and Uganda would be among the 15 countries (world-wide) suffering from water stress.
• The Ethiopia+Eritrea area, based on the figures assessed for the former Ethiopia PDR, would be among the 10 suffering from water scarcity.
• Burundi, Kenya and Rwanda would be among the 22 countries meeting the water barrier before 2025 [6].

Finally, in terms of the respective roles of agriculture, industry and domestic uses of water the region is characterized by:

1. a relatively high share of domestic uses in most countries: seven countries are at or above 20 percent; in five cases this is due to a level of agricultural uses substantially lower than the African average;
2. a low share of industrial use, in line with African characteristics, except in Liberia, Ghana and Nigeria; and
3. a level of agricultural use mostly in line with African standards, except for the five countries mentioned above.

An implication of these patterns is that there still is quite some potential for increases in water demand, as economies diversify and living standards rise. Unless large gains are made in efficient use of irrigation water and conservation or rehabilitation of damaged irrigated areas, the crunch is likely to severely damage economic competitivity in addition to health and the quality of life.

Annex: Regional patterns of land degradation

- Africa has 25 percent of wasteland (the highest proportion among regions), 12 percent lightly or moderately degraded and 4 percent strongly or extremely degraded land (also the highest proportion). The main type of degradation by far is the loss of topsoil (76 percent of the degraded area) followed by the loss of soil nutrients (9 percent). Burkina Faso, Burundi, Ethiopia (the then PDR), Lesotho, Madagascar, Morocco and Rwanda are particularly affected.

- North and Central America has 6 percent wasteland, 6 percent lightly or moderately degraded and 1 percent strongly degraded land. The main types of degradation are the loss of topsoil (75 percent of the degraded area) and terrain deformation from water erosion (16 percent, but 40 percent in Central America). Costa Rica, El Salvador and Panama are the most affected countries.

- South America has 1 percent wasteland, 11 percent lightly or moderately degraded and 1 percent strongly or extremely degraded land. The main types of degradation are loss of topsoil from water erosion (39 percent of the degraded area), loss of soil nutrients (28 percent) and terrain deformation from water erosion (12 percent). Brazil is particularly affected.

- Asia has 11 percent wasteland, 15 percent lightly or moderately degraded (the highest proportion among regions) and 3 percent strongly or extremely degraded land. Again the main type is loss of topsoil (71 percent of the degraded area), the next being terrain deformation (16 percent); salinization (7 percent) is significant. China, India, Thailand and Vietnam are the most affected countries.

- Australasia has 11 percent wasteland, 11 percent lightly or moderately degraded and a negligible proportion of strongly or extremely degraded land. For 95 percent, degradation consists in the loss of topsoil.

- Europe has a negligible proportion of wasteland, 22 percent lightly or moderately degraded and 1 percent strongly or extremely degraded land. The main types of degradation are loss of topsoil from water erosion (61 percent of the degraded area) and compaction (15 percent).

The Table below quantifies the area not affected by degradation or wasteland, as a proportion of total land area, by region:

Notes

2. All the quotes in this section are from United Nations (1992).

3. For a comparison of land degradation patterns among regions of the world, see the Annex.

4. Globally 83 percent of land degradation is in the form of erosion (70 percent mere loss of topsoil and 13 percent more severe terrain deformation). About 12 percent is in the form of chemical degradation and 5 percent in that of physical degradation.

5. Population pressures under 600 persons per flow unit (P/FU; 1 FU = 1 million cubic meters) are not considered a serious issue, although water quality problems and dry season supply problems may occur. Between 600 and 1000 P/FU, chances of more recurrent quantitative or/and qualitative supply problems increase notably: this is called the "water stress" stage. Between 1000 and 2000 P/FU such problems are common and affect human and economic development; this is the "scarcity" stage. 2000 P/FU is seen as the maximum population pressure that can be handled in the present state of technology and management capabilities; it has been labeled "water barrier". This scale was developed from the observation of areas where both per caput supplies and resource use problems were well documented.

6. Scarcity-related concepts are indicative, in view of the different adaptive capacities of countries. In particular, the water barrier concept should not be taken literally; even if water shortage is indeed a medium-term barrier to development, there is a priori no indication that solutions for the long term cannot be found. Rather than impending absolute physical limits, the indicator points to steeply increasing costs of supply on account of increased investment and recurrent expenditure for water supply, treatment and/or re-use; in turn, the cost issue points to likely social problems for cost recovery. On the other hand, "in arid conditions, the problem is more complex because of considerable seasonal variations in rainfall. The largest need for irrigation water is during the dry season when the water accessible to people can be as low as 10 percent of the annual flow. Even countries with an average competition level of only 50 [P/FU] have considerable allocation problems during the dry season"; in addition, "national figures do not reflect the stress on water resources quality in local areas exerted by rapid urbanization and industrialization" (Falkenmark and Widstrand, 1992).

References

Falkenmark, M. (1990): 'Rapid population growth and water scarcity: the predicament of tomorrow's Africa', in: "Resources, environment and population" (K. Davis and M.S. Bernstam, eds.), pp. 81-94. Supplement to Population and Development Review, vol. 16.

Falkenmark, M. and Widstrand, C. (1992): 'Population and water resources: a delicate balance'. "Population Bulletin" (Population Reference Bureau, Washington), vol. 47 no. 3.

FAO (1986): "African agriculture: the next 25 years". Rome.

FAO (1995): "Country tables. Basic data on the agricultural sector". Rome.

ISRIC (1991): "World map of the status of human-induced soil degradation", (by L.R. Oldeman, R.T.A. Hakkeling and W.G. Sombroek). Global Assessment of Soil Degradation (GLASOD)". Nairobi, UNEP.

Liamine, N. (1993): 'Desertification - The issues and challenges', "Ecoforum", vol. 17 no. 1/2 (April) pp. 11-21.

Nelson, R. (1990): "Dryland management - The 'desertification' problem". World Bank Technical Paper No 116. Washington.

United Nations (1977): "Round-up, Plan of action and resolutions of UNCOD". New York.

United Nations (1992): "Nations of the Earth report". UNCED national reports summaries. New York.

United Nations (1996): "World population prospects". New York.

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World Resources Institute (1996): "World resources 1996-97". New York, Oxford University Press.