Posted July 1999

Population and the current world food situation

Provisional estimates of food production in 1998 indicate an increase at the global level over 1997 of only 0.5 percent (Table 1). This would represent the lowest rate of global expansion since 1991 and would correspond to a contraction of 0.9 percent in per caput terms, the first such contraction at the global level since 1993 (Table 2). Both groups of developing and developed countries shared in the slowdown, with production actually contracting by an estimated 1 percent in the developed country group and growing only by a modest 1.8 percent in the developing countries.

Overall the developing country group experienced higher output growth over the last five years than the developed countries, and the developing countries - having experienced an increase in per caput food production - represent 77 percent of the developing country population. There are nevertheless major variations in performance, not only across countries but also across regions. Thus, alone among the developing country regions, Africa South of Sahara has suffered a decline in per caput terms over the 1994-98 period. Not only slow output growth, but also high rates of population growth have contributed to poor per caput production performances. For the group of low-income food deficit countries, in particular, 1998 appears to have been a very unfavourable year for crop and livestock production, which fell nearly 1 percent in per caput terms.

Table 3 shows, by region and globally, the distribution of developing country populations according to changes in per caput food production for the five-year period 1994-98. Although achieving per caput gains in food production is not an equally meaningful objective for all developing countries, per caput food production is nevertheless an important indicator for many of them. It emerges from the table that the countries that have achieved gains in per caput food production over the period represent 77 percent of the developing country population. If China and India (both of which have experienced increases in per caput terms) are excluded, however, such share falls to only 55 percent.

The table likewise shows that 7 percent of the developing country population lives in countries which have suffered a relatively sharp decline in per caput food production, exceeding 1 percent on average per year over the period. The share is 14 percent if China and India are excluded. The table, however, also highlights very sharp differences between the regions.

Figure 1 shows the relationship between the rate of change of total food production and population growth in the different countries for the five-year period 1994-98. It can be seen that production has lagged population growth in nearly half of the total number of countries considered. In some cases this has reflected strong demographic pressure rather than faltering performances of the agricultural sector (e.g. Guinea, Ethiopia where per caput production declined despite food production increases of 2.5 to 3 percent). Many other countries experienced a perverse combination of high population growth with stagnating or even declining production. (countries in the bottom-right area of the table).

Figure 1. Average annual rate of change of food production (crops and livestock) in relation to population growth for developing countries 1994-98

	Average population growth, 1994-97 (%)
Average rate of change of food output, 1994-1998 (%)	Below 1.0	1.0 to 1.5	1.5 to 2.0	2.0 to 2.5	2.5 to 3.0	Above 3.0
Above 5.0	Kuwait, Uruguay China, Mainland [1]	Guyana [1]	Bahamas, Morocco Tunisia, Peru [1]	United Arab Emirates Belize, Sudan Ecuador, Bolivia Costa Rica [1]	Syrian Arab Republic Benin, Cambodia Ghana, Chad [1]	Mozambique Jordan Angola Laos [1]
4.0 to 5.0		Argentina [1]	Egypt, Qatar Viet Nam [1]	Algeria Bahrain [1]	Pakistan Lebanon [1]	Niger [1]
3.0 to 4.0	Korea, Republic of [1]	Brazil [1]	Fiji Islands Chile [1]	Zimbabwe Central African Rep. [1]	Nicaragua, Guatemala Kenya Côte d'Ivoire Togo [1]	Eritrea [2]
2.5 to 3.0					Paraguay [2]	Guinea Ethiopia [3]
2.0 to 2.5		Mauritius [1]	Mexico India [1]	Iran Islamic Rep. of Philippines Mongolia [2]	Congo, Republic of Lesotho Gambia Cameroon [3]	Comoros [3]
1.5 to 2.0	Cuba China, Taiwan Prov. of Thailand [1]	Malawi [1]	Colombia Myanmar Turkey Bangladesh [2]	Sierra Leone El Salvador South Africa Guinea-Bissau [3]	Nigeria, Nepal Mauritania Tanzania, United Rep of [3]	Yemen Mali [3]
1.0 to 1.5	Jamaica Trinidad and Tobago [1]	Réunion [2]	Indonesia [3]	Malaysia [3]	Gabon Namibia [3]	Solomon Islands [3]
0.5 to 1.0	Sri Lanka [2]			Venezuela Sao Tome & Principe [3]	Vanuatu Honduras [3]	Maldives Oman [3]
0.0 to 0.5		Rwanda [3]	Cyprus, Haiti Dominican Republic [3]			Madagascar [3]
-0.5 to 0.0				Iraq [3]	Burkina Faso Swaziland [3]	Libyan Arab Jamahiriya [3]
-1.0 to -0.5				Burundi Brunei Darussalam [3]	Cape Verde Senegal [3]	Uganda [3]
Below -1.0	Puerto Rico [3]	Suriname [3]	Panama New Caledonia Singapore [3]	Botswana Zambia Papua New Guinea [3]	Equatorial Guinea Saudi Arabia [3]	Congo, Dem Rep of [3]
	1   Production > population     2   Production = Population     3   Production < Population
Note: The table includes developing countries for which up-to-date estimates are available for both overall food production and population up to at least 1997. For some countries, for which up-to-date statistics are not yet available for 1998 food production, the average refers to 1994-97 (rather than 1994-98). Source: FAO.

Relatively few countries with high rates of population growth, above 3 percent annually, have succeeded in keeping annual food production growth in line with or above the rate of growth of population. At the other end, an outstanding case, given the massive populations involved, is that of China (top left hand corner), which combined an average annual expansion of total food production of more than 5 percent with a rate of population growth of less than one percent.

Global production of staple food declined slightly in 1998, with most of the decline being in cereals, although developing country cereal production increased moderately. Global end-cereal stocks for the 1998/99 seasons are forecast to decline slightly, but to remain within the range of 17-18 percent of trend utilization which the FAO Secretariat considers as the minimum necessary to safeguard world food security.

For global fish production, estimates for 1998 are not yet available, but in 1997 total production expanded further to reach a peak of 122 million tonnes. The increase is due to continued growth in aquaculture production, while capture fisheries experienced a slight decrease.

The number of countries facing food emergencies as of mid-March stands at 38 compared to 37 towards the end of 1998, mainly due to adverse weather and civil strife:

• In Africa, the food situation in Somalia gives cause for serious concern, following six poor harvests in succession, while in Angola, Democratic Republic of Congo, Guinea-Bissau and Sierra Leone, food production is seriously hampered by persistent civil strife and large-scale population displacements. Elsewhere on the continent, adverse weather has significantly affected food security in Tanzania, while the ongoing war between Eritrea and Ethiopia has displaced large numbers of people along the common border.

• In Asia, severe food shortages persist in Korea DPR due to a combination of economic problems and adverse weather. In Indonesia, despite a favourable outlook for the rice harvest in March/April, food security remains precarious following 1998's sharply reduced rice crop and the effect of the economic crisis. In Afghanistan, the ongoing fighting in the northern provinces, which account for much of the country's cereal output, has hampered production. In Iraq, despite some easing of the food supply situation following the implementation of the oil-for-food deal, malnutrition remains a serious problem. Elsewhere in Asia, weather anomalies have affected production in Bangladesh, China and the Philippines.

• In Central America, hurricane "Mitch" devastated several countries, causing over 9 500 casualties, severely affecting more than 3 million. Worst affected were Honduras and Nicaragua. El Salvador, Guatemala and some south-western parts of Mexico, as well as Costa Rica and Panama, also suffered the effects of the hurricane.

• In the CIS, the financial crisis in the Russian Federation has disrupted the economies of most of the countries in the region and increased hardship. Vulnerable populations including the internally displaced, refugees and elderly in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and particularly Tajikistan continue to need targeted food aid.

Food aid shipments are estimated to have increased by about 9 percent in 1997/98 to 5.8 million tonnes, but remained lower than the average of the last five years. FAO currently forecasts a further increase in 1998/99 to a total of 8.5 million tonnes in the face of increased requirements from Asia, Central America and the CIS.

As a result of reduced import volumes, lower international prices and increased food aid shipments, developing country cereal import bills are expected to decline for the third consecutive year in 1998/99. Medium term prospects for the world food situation will depend to a large extent on developments in the world economy and the timing and strength of recovery from the financial crisis.

The world index of nominal export prices of principal primary agricultural products declined by almost 13 percent in 1998, dropping below the high levels of the mid-1990s but remaining well above the average for early part of the decade. Although commodity prices may be expected to stabilize somewhat after the pronounced falls since mid-1997, a substantial recovery appears unlikely in the short and mid-term in view of over capacity in many commodity markets, and the depressing effects of the financial crisis on world economic activity and import demand. The balance of the contrasting effects of the economic slowdown on income and food prices will yield uncertain results in terms of access to food for the poor consumers.