Publications Archive

· Conflict at the border between South and north Sudan is likely to affect agricultural activities. · Humanitarian intervention is urgently needed to settle the high number of returnees, refugees and IDPs in South Sudan. · Households still faced food shortage as high food prices continued in all the States. · Land preparation and cultivation activity is ongoing as seasonal rainfall commenced in April…………

With reference to IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) monthly bulletin April 2012, the climate outlook indicates likelihood of normal to above normal rainfall over South Sudan during May 2012 except for the border areas between Sudan and South Sudan. This has implication of good prospect for high agricultural production as the season has started well. Occurrence of crop diseases outbreak inflicted by weather parameters and flooding of homesteads in flood prone areas of South Sudan is also expected.

Food security situation in South Sudan is deteriorating following the cereal production deficit occasioned by extended period of dry spells in 2011. As the result, about 4.7 million populations are anticipated to be potentially food insecure and about 1 million populations are likely to be severely food insecure. In South Sudan, the food insecurity is regularly driven by inadequate rainfall and inter-communal conflicts. Increases of inter-communal conflicts or cattle raiding in states like Jonglei, Upper Nile, Unity and Warrap State affected not only food availability but also food access to the affected households.

Increasing demand and tightened supply (due to poor harvest and tightened imports) are causing food shortages and accelerating inflation in Sudan. Global food prices have also increased for the second consecutive month in February, and remain high with prices of most commodity groups monitored rising again (FAO Food Price Index)........

Cereal prices typically decline during the main summer harvest (October – January). Counter to expectations, cereal prices failed to decline during the 2011/12 harvest in most Sudanese markets, holding steady at levels significantly above historical average levels throughout 2011 and the beginning of 2012. Since July 2011, in particular, cereal prices have either increased further or remain flat for few months widening the gap between current and average prices

The cereal harvest for the Republic of the Sudan is estimated at 2.773 million tonnes, comprising 2.089 million tonnes of sorghum, 0.365 million tonnes of pearl millet and a low forecast for a wheat harvest in March-April 2010, only partially planted during the assessment, of 0.324 million tonnes plus small amounts of maize and rice. Cereal production is less than half last year’s estimate of an extremely good harvest due to poor rains leading to a reduced area harvested and lower yields in the rainfed sector........

Contrary to the traditional post harvest decline in prices expected at this time of the year, cereal prices in most Sudanese markets continue to be either stable at historically high levels or increased in December 2011. Prices continue to be substantially higher compared to their 2007-2010 averages and were more than 60 percent higher for all major cereals and markets compared to December 2010 prices, which were also historical record highs......

It is becoming evident that the 2011 rain-fed agricultural season has come to an end. Based on satellite rainfall estimates cumulative rainfall analysis for October to November suggests that normal to below normal rainfall has been observed in many of the western parts of the region (Fig. 1)

The food security situations in South Sudan have mixed trends as projected during Livelihood Analysis Forum (LAF) that was organised in Yei from 5th-10th Sept 2011. As indicated in figure 1, the Greenbelt and Ironstone Platea livelihood zones could potentially be in better food security situations as from Sept-Dec compared to other livelihood zones of Western Flood Plains, Nile Sobat Rivers, Eastern Flood Plains, Hills and Mountains and Pastoral zone which are likely to be in crisis phase. The crisis condition in these livelihood zones were caused by a combination of factors.

Significant increases in cereal prices followed by very high inflation rates, including of input prices, will have an impact on reducing next year’s input utilization thereby reducing planted area and harvest for the coming season. Unless an immediate solution is forwarded, it may be too late to curb the problem, which may result in significant depletion of productive assets. Continued increases in cereal prices over the coming months would aggravate the recently worsened food security in conflict affected and chronically food insecure areas............................