Publications Archive

An increase in cereal production has led to significant price declines in the major markets of country...Close monitoring of prices is necessary in the next few months in order to ensure that market stabilization measures remain consistent with existing market conditions. Prices are also anticipated to start increasing again as of May along normal seasonal lines, reaching their peak during June-September. The magnitude of this increase will of course depend on the performance of the summer rains (June – September)...

Generally Food Insecure with moderate risk level. However, the large proportion of the populations within the Pastoral Zones (Eastern Equatoria, especially Greater Kapoeta and Bor Counties of Jonglei States), Eastern Flood Plain and Nile Sobat (Upper Nile and parts of Jonglei States) and Western Flood Plains (Unity, Warrap and Northern Bahr El Ghazal States) are in Acute Food and Livelihoods Crises with moderate risks while small proportion are in Humanitarian Emergency phase with high

The overall food inflation rates increased to 17.1% in March 2011 compared to the 14.8% level same time last year. The rates steadily increased from 9.8% in November 2010 to 17.1% in March. According to the Food & Agriculture Market Information System (FAMIS), food prices, including wheat followed international market price trends as Sudan is a net importer of the whole set of food commodities – Sudan imports between 1.5 – 2.0 million MT of wheat every year. Wheat prices in March increased by about 17% compared to last year. On the other hand, following a significant increase in production, sorghum (which is the main staple food) prices in Sudan declined by about 30% compared to same time last year.

For the last 31 days of the month of March most areas started to receive rainfall especially the equatoria region. In the first ten days of March rainfall performance was poor with the entire area of South Sudan receiving an average range of less than 10mm except for a few areas in Jonglei State (Pibor and Pochalla Counties) that received a range of 10-40mm of rainfall. The rainfall in Jonglei State was experienced due to proximity to Ethiopia where heavy rainfall is usually experienced in its highlands during this time of the year...............................

Prices of sorghum in the terminal market of Khartoum were unusually high during the June – July 2010 period, declining gradually from August 2010 to January 2011 in accordance with normal seasonal trends. Prices then stabilized in February, reflecting a widespread food price changes in the country. Sorghum prices are still 30% above their previous five year average. Wheat prices in Khartoum remained stable in February though still much higher than its respective average, has been increasing significantly since July 2010. With the increase in wheat prices, other prices may climb as consumers seek cheaper substitutes.....

Large number of returnees arrived to Southern Sudan in the last two months. This large influx resulted in high demand for food and pose threats to food security through stressing the already strained commodity prices. Reports from UN OCHA 10/02/2011, indicated that a total of two hundred thirteen thousand, eight hundred thirty two (213,832) returnees arrived since Oct. 2010. Increase of the number of returnees in the coming few months is expected to affect the food security situation in Southern Sudan. Close monitoring of the situation and developing contingency plan by GoSS and humanitarian and development partners is highly required. The Government and other development partners need to work urgently to speed up early reintegration of returnees as they reached their final destination to enable them participate in agricultural activities which will be starting in the coming few months in most parts of Southern Sudan.

Prices for all cereals but wheat declined in all selected major markets of the country. Such price declines in January may indicate increased supply to the market as many farming households attempt to meet their financial obligations (taxes, repayment of input credits, household & social expenses, etc.) by selling large quantities of their produce. However, wheat prices increased in several markets, in some significantly....The next couple of months will be critical in determining whether the current sorghum bulk purchases for stabilizing prices, persistent international price rises plus subsidy removal for imported items will have a long lasting impact or not.

This Food Security Update is designed to better inform decision makers and analysts in Sudan of current food security situations and future outlooks. FSTS in collaboration with the Humanitarian Aid Commission (HAC) started to produce monthly food security update since September 2010. The FSTS is represented by more than 10 core line-ministries and data sources for reports are coming from the available data collection system of these various line ministries.

Summary of Northern Sudan States Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC). Outlook for January to March 2011.

Cereal prices in most Sudan markets continue to decline since August as the estimated above average harvested crops reach the market. The exceptions are the traditional conflict affected areas of S. Kordofan, and the three Darfur States, where price volatility is high. As Sudan is in the midst of sorghum harvesting season, prices will keep on declining into Feb - Mar. Nevertheless, unlike the previous few months, wheat prices and inflation rates have significantly increased in December with serious implications on the poor. The food inflation, unabated by sorghum price declines, nearly doubled in December, reaching to 19.7% from a mere 11% in November and the non-food inflation increased to 8.9% from 6.9%. The increases are mainly attributed to the ongoing referendum related unstability and currency devaluation and speculation of possible removal of subsidies on petro, sugar and other products. The food inflation rise is also related to increases in international food prices in which Sudan is a net importer.