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The cereal harvest for the 15 northern states of the Republic of the Sudan is estimated at 5.707 million MT, comprising 4.606 million MT of sorghum, 0.667 million MT of pearl millet and a low forecast for a wheat harvest in March-April 2010, only partially planted during the assessment, of 0.443 million MT plus small amounts of maize and rice. Food security situations improved in many states due to good harvesting season. However, some 3.2 million people require humanitarian assistance in the 15 Northern states of Sudan during 2011.

Following the seasonal pattern, sorghum and millet prices are dropping significantly in real terms and more moderately in nominal terms. This period normally lasts through March or April. However, wheat prices have continued to increase mimicking the international wheat prices (though to a lesser extent). While wheat prices increased by about 70% in the international market between July and December, the local wheat prices increased only by 15% during the same period. Cereal prices have started to get lower than same time last year’s though still much above their previous five year’s average. Lower prices will benefit poor households, as they gain greater market access. But if prices persist to drop below their average and to the break-even point of cost of production, producers will be hurt as low prices translate into low revenues. Given current high but decreasing prices, stabilization efforts should be increased but with extra caution as it may also further exacerbate problems in Sudan’s fragile and volatile market. Prices will need to be monitored in the coming months to help decision makers take relevant balanced measures in this critical period of the year.

This report analyzes the wood energy situation in Darfur with special reference to the Internally Displaced Populations (IDP) and provides the basis for strategic wood energy planning in order to secure subsistence energy supply to vulnerable populations whilst reducing at the same time the unsustainable pressure on the resources of the region. The project was carried out by FAO (NRL, ERCU, and SIFSIA - N) with UNEP.

Over the past three months, there have been reports of large number of Southern Sudanese returning from Northern Sudan. This high inflow of returnees is expected to result in increased demand for food commodities which may in the coming months lead to food shortages. It is also reported that the northern traders who supply the northern regions of Southern Sudan are fearing possible referendum related violence. The harvest in 2010 agricultural season is promising in most parts of Southern Sudan, though crop production in some states has been affected negatively due to flood problems in Jonglei particularly in Akobo, Pochalla, Nyirol, and Northern Bahr El Ghazal (Aweil Centre) and Upper Nile State particularly in Maban and Longichuk. The food insecurity situation remains volatile among the flood affected

Rainfall estimates in the first dekad of November are observed to range from 0-10mm for northern areas of Unity state, Warrap, the Greater Bahr el Ghazal, Upper Nile state and the southern states of southern Sudan covering CES and EES except Magwi county that had received rainfall in the range of 10-40mm. Few spotted areas had rainfall range of 40-120mm covering areas of Tonj South in Warrap State, Cueibet, Rumbek center and east and Wulu in Lakes

According to the Nov10 FAO food outlook report, food import bills for the world’s low-income food-deficit countries are predicted to rise by 20 percent. If the international prices pass through the local market, the current trends will have severe implications for Sudan, which depends on 2 million tons of commercial imports of wheat in recent years and the demand is rising. Contrary to these international market price trends, prices of major cereals in Sudan declined by about 20 percent between July and October 2010. Khartoum sorghum and millet prices declined by 25 and 15%, respectively, between July and October 2010. Khartoum wheat prices increased by a mere 6% while international wheat prices increased by about 39% during the same period. Khartoum wheat prices further declined by about 8 percent in October compared to the previous month though international wheat prices stabilized at 3%. This may indicate that local prices are insulated from international market trends but with a high cost. The decrease in sorghum prices is particularly reassuring for consumers as sorghum is a major staple food for poor households with limited access to food in the market during most of the year. However, these low prices will need to provide adequate returns and maintain domestic production incentives.

For the last 31 days of the month of October, most areas in Southern Sudan received rainfall ranging from 10-20mm. A few areas mainly concentrated in the northern parts of Southern Sudan experienced rainfall ranging from 40-80mm. In the second dekad, the rainfall pattern improved as above average rainfall was received mainly along the western part of Southern Sudan covering areas at the border of Western Equatoria State, greater Bahr el Ghazal States, Central

Reports of nutrition surveys over the years before the signing of the CPA reveal an average trend of 22% Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) rates with Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) rates above 4%. This trend was confirmed during the Sudan Household Health Survey (SHHS) 2006, the first national survey that included nutrition data from all the 10 states. The findings of the SHHS are displayed in the

Reports from the regional consensus climate outlook for the September to December 2010 rainfall season indicate increased likelihood of near normal to above normal rainfall over the western and northern parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) of which southern Sudan is inclusive. Similar reports also reported that rainfall received during September to December months is relatively small in many parts of the sub-region relative to the normal totals for the same period.

اظهرت أسعار الذرة إنخفاضاً ما بين أغسطس و سبتمبر في معظم الأسواق المرصودة، و إن كانت لا تزال إلى حد ما أعلى من متوسطاتها للفترة سبتمبر 2005- 2009. وقد أشارت مصادر الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء أيضا الى أن التضخم فى أسعار المواد الغذائية انخفض من حوالي 20 ٪ فى مايو الى نحو 10 ٪ في سبتمبر 2010 . وبلغت نسبة الإنفاق الأسر على الغذاء في السودان 61.4% خلال 2009. مما يعني أن الأسرة في السودان تنفق فى المتوسط أكثر من ثلاثة أخماس مجموع منصرفاتها على المواد الغذائية. وقد بينت توقعات المحاصيل وحالة الغذاء الصادرة من منظمة الأغذية والزراعة أن أسعار القمح العالمية زادت نسبة تتراوح من 60 إلي 80 ٪ خلال الفترة يوليو الى سبتمبر 2010 بسبب انخفاض العرض. و إن كان هذا المستوى العالى لاسعار المحاصيل لا يزال أقل من ثلث ذروة الأسعار في عام 2008، ومع ذلك فإن من المتوقع أن ترتفع فاتورة الواردات للبلدان المستوردة بنحو 8 ٪. يجدر بالذكر أن السودان يستورد حوالي 2 مليون طن متري من القمح والدقيق كل عام، و بالرغم من ذلك لم تؤثر هذه الزيادات علي ما يدفعه المستهلك نتيجة إستمرار الحكومة في دعم هذه السلعة الاستراتيجية. ومن ناحية أخري ارتفعت أسعار القمح المنتج محلياً في الخرطوم من 103 جنيه (للجوال سعة 90 كيلوجرام)فى شهر يوليو إلي 120 فى سبتمبر 2010 (اي بنسبة 16%).