Publications Archive

This MARF livestock and Fisheries bulletin is produced monthly to provide an indicative market price of major livestock commodities traded in major terminal markets and to examine pastoral households’ cereal access through sale of male goat. The analysis further looks into how well or bad the entire rangelands of southern Sudan have performed during July and in the first dekad of August 2010(i.e. first 10 days of August). The core aims of producing this MARF bulletin are to update policy makers, livestock producers, traders, consumers, market analysts and programmers on the recent and current performance of livestock markets and pastures conditions in the entire region of southern Sudan. The production of this bulletin has been possible by a joint effort between the State Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Resources and Fisheries and the GOSS Ministry of Animal Resources and Fisheries with technical and financial supports from SIFSIA Programme and European Commission, respectively. The raw datasets for this bulletin production are aggregated from the web-based Crops and Livestock Market Information System (CLiMIS): www.southsudan-climis.org. These price data are updated weekly by the ten state marketing Focal Persons in the Ministries of Agriculture, Animal Resources and Fisheries.

Institutions contributing to this study: CBS, SSCCE, African Development Bank, Statistics Norway, UNDP, and FAO. This report was prepared by staff members from the CBS, SSCCSE, and SIFSIA following their participation in the International Demonstration Centre (IDC) on food security and consumption statistics derived from household surveys held in Rome in April and May 2010. The process of development of the report resulted from technical assistance on statistical analysis of food consumption data provided by the FAO Statistics Division for the technical support provided during and after the IDC in Rome.

Cereal prices continued to show their typical trend in Sudan, either increasing or remain stable at a very high level during the month of June 2010. Given last year’s poor agricultural performance, which made conditions even worse this hunger season, cereal prices have been higher than normal this June. Staple prices in selected markets are higher than they were last month and higher than the five year average for this time of year. Because the lowest 20% of poor people spend more than 70 percent of their total budget on food, these high level and excessive increases and fluctuations in cereal prices have a significant impact on their food security adversely affecting their nutritional status. With cereal prices continuing to climb towards their seasonal peak levels, poor households will be at ever increasing risk of food shortages. Prices are particularly high in the conflict affected areas where supplies of grains are already very limited due to inaccessible transport routes. Close monitoring of prices will be crucial in evaluating the food security status of the poor in the coming months.

During June 2010 the rainfall belt gradually advanced its position northward, bringing favourable conditions to agriculture in central parts of the country. Sowing and planting conditions could be started by mid and late June in central Sudan. See Page (1) Fig (1.1 and 1.2) and page (2) Fig (2.1, 2.2, 2.3 and 2.4). · Suitable planting and early crop development conditions have been spread northwards in late June, but delays have happened particularly in areas of Eastern parts of the country and in South Kordufan States. See Page (3) Fig (3). · June is very humid throughout Western and Northern Bahr El Gazal, Western and central Equatoria, Warab, southern parts of Upper Nile, Blue Nile and southern parts of Sinnar state with above average rainfall amounts, although There are some pockets of dryness through southern parts of Jonglei state, northern parts of Sinnar and Gadarif states and throughout of East Equatoria state. See Page. (4) Fig. (4) · Vegetation has significantly developed to average levels in the areas of Unity state, South Kordufan state, southern Darfur and Western Darfur states, while below average development was shown in Jonglei, Upper Nile, southern parts of western Bahr El Ghazal state and southern parts of southern Darfur state. See text for further detail. See Page 4. Fig (5.1 and 5.2). · Forecasts for July-August-September rainfall from different sources (SMA, IRI and ECMWF) have become more consistent. SMA updated its seasonal forecast for the rainfall of July-August-September (JAS) 2010, see Page (6).Fig (6). According to this forecast, JAS rainfall is expected to be above average to average throughout different climatic zones of the country, with a somewhat lower chance of above average rainfall in the southwest region.

Highlights: Southern Sudan Council of Ministers resolves to remove taxes on essential food commodities… Halve the population of Southern Sudan living on less than a $ 1 (2.4 SDG) a day... Vulnerable households still face food shortages...

Contrary to the international prices of key food staples, the food inflation rates in Sudan continued to rise indicating a rise in effect of the vulnerable group. May 2010 prices for most of the major cereal grains also increasing at a very high level and generally higher than the five years average of 2004 - 2009. While the main drivers for the international price decline are attributed to the increase in world supplies, a significant decline in local production and its supply are the key factors for price increases in Sudan. Cereal prices are expected to increase further or at least stabilize at their very high May levels as stocks held by big traders dwindle for the coming lean season. However, the level and quality of the upcoming summer harvest could influence price changes in either direction. On the other hand, the world market looks to be heading towards another stable season, which could put further downward pressure on international prices (FAO-Food Outlook, June 2010). Local consumers - especially the rural poor – will be forced to buy a small amount of their consumption and other household necessities. It will be, therefore, essential to achieve some degree of price stabilization, to minimize the adverse effects of price hikes on the poor.

A number of food security related policies/strategies/programmes developed by relevant ministries and commissions in the Government of Southern Sudan where reviewed to identify the gaps in each policy/strategy and develop benchmarks for monitoring the implementation of the policies.

Cereal prices continued to rise and remain stable at a high level in April and are substantially above historical average levels. Moreover, food and cereal inflation rates continued to rise both in rural and urban settings. In addition to the considerable increases in cereal prices, the typical seasonal behavior of prices changed throughout 2009/10. Prices increased all through the year even during the harvest season of October – December when cereal prices usually decline. These higher than normal prices will have the worst effects on the poorest households, who access the majority of their food from the market. Increasing prices exacerbate the already poor condition of these net-consumers and could result in serious food shortages. If well designed stabilization programs are implemented ahead of schedule, they may help to smooth out consumption shortfalls when food prices rise.

- First season promising in Central Equatoria and Lakes State - Floods threaten low lying areas of Central Equatorial, Jonglei, Lakes and NBG states - Vegetation growth threatened by the dry spell in WBG, Unity, eastern part of Western Equatoria

Cereal price increases, induced by poor performance of 2009/10 summer and winter seasons and the corresponding fall in production, have continued much above their historical averages. The upward trend persisted even during the harvest season (September to December) when prices are expected to decline, if not stabilize. With stability in world market prices, wheat prices somehow stabilized during the first half of 2009 and have been steadily increasing since then. Current price trends are very worrying, particularly for sorghum, with current prices often reaching to historical record highs. Further decline in the income sources can be expected during the 2010/11 season unless the current high level trend is reversed. The level and quality of the upcoming summer season could further influence price changes in either direction.