Table of Contents

• I. INTRODUCTION
• II. PROJECTIONS RESULT
  • A. Pineapples
  • B. Mangoes
  • C. Avocados
  • D. Papayas
• III. GENERAL CONCLUSIONS

I. INTRODUCTION

1. This document provides an analysis of market prospects for fresh tropical fruits to the year 2005. Using the FAO medium-term model, the projections to 2000 presented at the International Consultation on Tropical Fruits in Malaysia in 1996 were extended to 2005. The fresh fruits included in these projections are pineapples, mangoes, avocados and papayas, as data limitations prevented analysis for other tropical fruits. Projections were made on the basis of import demand analysis as supply availabilities were assumed to be sufficient to meet needs over the next decade. The demand projections were based on the assumption of constant real prices at 1993-95 levels, using United Nations population and income projections, supplemented by a trend factor to take account of changes in consumer tastes and preferences.

II. PROJECTIONS RESULT

2. Demand prospects for tropical fruits are expected to be favourable over the next decade. The four fruits analysed represent on average approximately 75 percent of total fresh tropical fruit production and approximately 90 percent of exports in fresh form. Over the medium term, the projected global average annual growth in demand for the four fruits would range from 3 to 4.5 percent. Compounded over ten years from a base period of 1993-95, import demand would increase by an average of 40 percent by the year 2005.

3. The projections from the FAO medium-term model apply only to fresh fruit. Projections for processed tropical fruits are not accounted for in the model, due to constraints on trade information and conversion factors between fresh and processed forms. For future studies, the FAO hopes to have this information made available and for processed tropical fruits to be included in the projections

A. PINEAPPLES

4. The market for fresh pineapple imports is expected to expand over the next decade, although growth will not be equal in all markets. Global imports of fresh pineapple are projected to increase by 35 percent, to 922 000 tonnes, by the year 2005. The bulk of the increase would be in developed countries as their global share is estimated to increase from 89 percent to 90 percent, while the share of imports by developing countries is estimated to decline from 11 percent to 10 percent. Europe is expected to remain the largest import market, with 484 000 tonnes by the year 2005. Imports into the EC would amount to 461 000 tonnes, or 50 percent of global pineapple imports. France would account for a large proportion of EC imports. By 2005, consignments to that country are projected to reach 133 000 tonnes, or 29 percent of total EC imports.

B. MANGOES

5. World imports of fresh mangoes are projected to increase by 53 percent to 459 000 tonnes by the year 2005, with demand expected to rise as consumers become increasingly aware of the taste and culinary possibilities of mangoes. The share of developed and developing countries in global mango imports would be essentially unchanged. The largest importing region would continue to be North America, accounting for 42 percent of global mango imports, followed by Europe accounting for 24 percent, the Far East with 17 percent and the Near East accounting for 14 percent. Japan is not a significant importer of mangoes, and the market share of this country is estimated to remain at 3 percent.

6. Mangoes are one of the few tropical fruits that are imported in significant volumes by both developed and developing countries. The Near East and the Far East regions account for the largest volume of imports by developing countries. Consumers in the Far East are familiar with mango and mango products, and trade is mostly intra-regional.

C. AVOCADOS

7. World imports of fresh avocados are projected to increase by 55 percent to 287 000 tonnes by the year 2005. The growth in imports is expected to be mainly in developed countries, with their share of the global market for avocados increasing from 91 percent in the base period to 95 percent by the year 2005. The largest importing region would continue to be Europe, where France would remain the biggest importing country. By the year 2005 imports into France are expected to reach 108 000 tonnes and account for 57 percent of avocado consignments to the EC and 46 percent of total avocado imports into Europe. Fresh avocado imports to North America are projected to be only 38 000 tonnes by the year 2005, as the United States produces avocados domestically for internal consumption. Avocado imports into Japan are projected to increase to 5 000 tonnes in 2005. Among developing regions, Latin America and the Caribbean is the largest producing and consuming region. Avocado imports into Latin America are expected to increase marginally from 12 000 tonnes to 13 000 tonnes by the year 2005.

D. PAPAYAS

8. Global fresh papaya imports are expected to increase by 46 percent to 118 000 tonnes by the year 2005. Developed countries would account for 56 percent of world papaya imports and developing countries would account for 44 percent. Almost all the growth in import demand in developing countries would be concentrated in the Far East, where papaya imports are projected to increase by 36 percent from 36 000 tonnes in the base period to 49 000 tonnes by the year 2005. In developed countries, the consumer market is still evolving. The United States would continue to be the largest importing country with imports projected to increase to 40 000 tonnes by the year 2005, representing almost 60 percent of papaya shipments into developed countries.

III. GENERAL CONCLUSIONS

9. Developed countries currently account for about 80 percent of world imports of fresh tropical fruits, and this should remain unchanged over the next decade. The share of fresh tropical fruit imports by developing countries is currently around 20 percent, with the countries of the Far East accounting for the bulk of this amount.

10. Europe is expected to remain the world's largest import market, with shipments by the year 2005 accounting for an estimated 47 percent of trade in fresh tropical fruits. Within Europe, the EC would remain the largest market, and France would continue to be the largest importing country. The share of Europe in global imports of all fresh tropical fruits, except mangoes, is projected to increase by the year 2005.

11. North America is expected to remain the world's second largest market for fresh tropical fruits. The North American share of global imports is expected to increase for pineapples, mangoes and papayas, but decrease for avocados. The United States, the largest importing country within this region, also produces a small amount of tropical fruits in the southern states and Hawaii, which partially satisfies their own domestic consumption needs. Overall, the North American market exhibits signs of slower growth, around 4 percent over the next decade, as it could be considered a more mature market for these fruits. In addition, there is a vast selection of fruit available to the consumer, both tropical and temperate.

12. The import market in Japan is expected to decrease its share of global imports of fresh tropical fruits to less than 10 percent by the year 2005. Pineapples would remain the dominant tropical fruit imported. Like the United States, Japan is a more mature market and there is a very wide selection of fruit available to consumers.

13. In developing countries, import preferences are traditionally for temperate fruits, as tropical fruits grow in abundance in these countries. Imports of tropical fruits occur mainly in countries that lack available land resources such as Singapore and China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.

Table 1 Summary Table of Imports of Major Tropical Fruits by Main Countries/Regions

Base period is 1993 to 1995.

1_/ Incl. Switzerland, Russia, Eastern Europe and Other Western European Countries.

2_/ Including intra-EC trade

Table 2: Pineapples: Projections of imports to 2000 and 2005

Base Period: 1993-1995.

1/ Include. Switzerland, Russia, Eastern Europe and Other Western European Countries.

2/ Including intra-EC trade.

Table 3: Avocados: Projections of imports to 2000 and 2005

Base Period: 1993-1995.

1/ Include. Switzerland, Russia, Eastern Europe and Other Western European Countries.

2/ Including intra-EC trade.

Table 4: Mangoes: Projections of imports to 2000 and 2005

Base Period: 1993-1995.

1/ Include. Switzerland, Russia, Eastern Europe and Other Western European Countries.

2/ Including intra-EC trade

Table 5: Papayas: Projections of imports to 2000 and 2005

Base Period: 1993-1995.

1/ Include. Switzerland, Russia, Eastern Europe and Other Western European Countries.

2/ Including intra-EC trade