Will there be a
wood shortage? Several studies on global supply and
demand on fibre and wood products have been
produced within the last decade in order to address
this question.
Few of the studies,
with the exception of the FAO Forest Resources
Assessment, are based on inventory data. Instead,
most use models based on past production and
consumption to quantify fibre availability.
Long-term
Trends and Prospects in World Supply and Demand for
Wood...
"World forests are
biologically capable of supplying the quantity and
type of wood consistent with the highest demand
projections." - European Forest Institute
The horns of the
dilemma is well illustrated by the above quote. The
messages being conveyed by previous studies vary
from "no fibre crises" to "global shortage",
depending on the underlying methodology.
"Fibre supply" has
to be understood as the vailability of wood,
recovered paper and non-wood fibre for the
production of sawn timber, wood-based panels, and
pulp and paper.
In 1995, in order
to obtain more reliable information on supply, the
Advisory Committee on Paper and Wood Products
(ACPWP) recommended that FAO carry out the Global
Fibre Supply Study (GFSS).
The first steps
taken to implement this study were presented in the
ACPWP meeting held in Marrakech, in April 1996.
The GFSS is guided
by a Steering Committee, which is chaired by Mr.
Kevin Lyden (CEO Shotton Paper Company plc),
co-chaired by Mrs Lise Lachapelle, President of the
Canadian Pulp and Paper Association, and includes
other industry representatives. Its main task is to
advise and monitor the work in progress.
The GFSS forms an
integral part of the FAO Forestry Department
Outlook Studies. It will provide information on
estimated commercial forest volumes, based on the
most recent inventory reports and other primary
data sources. Relevant data and trends on recovered
paper and non-wood fibre have been addressed in the
database.
The major phases
are: the development of a database at a country
level, the production of background documents on
factors affecting fibre supply, and the production
of future projections up to the year 2050 (with
emphasis on likely developments up to the year
2010).
The GFSS and the
FAO Global Forest Products Model, will be the
background model and documentation for a Global
Outlook on supply and demand. With this
information, FAO will produce a final report on the
implications for global forest policy.
Land Use under
the GFSS
The diagram above
describes the underlying land classification scheme
used in GFSS. The classification of 'forest' has
been broken down into area available and
unavailable for wood supply.
The GFSS attempts
to delineate between these two types of forest at
the national level, by eliminating any forest land
that is legally protected or inaccessible for any
reason. All available literature has been reviewed
to make estimates of the areas that are
unavailable.
With this
classification scheme, it is possible to make an
initial estimate of volumes that are likely to be
commercially available.
Progress
Preliminary GFSS
estimates of commercial growing stock are currently
in place for all countries in Asia, Africa, and
Latin America. For countries in the CIS region, the
area and volume information was obtained from the
International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis
(IIASA). European data will come from primarily the
ETTS V inventory project. North American
inventories will be taken from previously compiled
sources.
A Working Group
meeting was organized in Rome, 24-25 February 1997,
with the participation of a number of international
experts on industrial fibre supply and outlook
studies.
A methodology for
supply forecasting is under development. The model
has been tested using sample data from three
countries and it is expected to be completed early
this summer
Projected Future
Fibre Supply Indonesia under current trends
The example above
is a preliminary projection of Indonesia's future
fibre supply, following current trends, using data
found in the GFSS database.
Several key points
should be considered:
- Under current
trends, the natural forest area available for
wood supply will be at least partially harvested
by the year 2030. Some of this area will be
transformed into semi-natural forest, while the
remainder will have been permanently turned to
agricultural uses.
- By the year
2050, industrial plantations are expected to
become the major source of wood fibre for
Indonesia.
- Short-term
projections cannot be considered sufficient for
planning purposes. The projected fibre supply
composition in 2010 using the GFSS model is not
significantly different from that of 1996;
however, by 2030, fibre supply composition
changes dramatically.
Effect of Wood
Type on Supply
(Indonesia)
The type of wood
being considered can be related to the
reference
diameter class used in volume estimates. Here is an
illustration of the dramatic impact that diameter
class can have on forecasting fibre volume.
For Indonesia, the
cumulative difference between fibre supply
projections based at 10 cm and 50 cm is over 1.8
billion cubic metres.
The end uses of the
wood will dictate the appropriate diameter class to
use. In countries where industry is mostly
concerned with large-diameter sawlogs, for example,
the fibre supply projections should be based on the
50 cm diameter class. However, where industry can
make use of pulpwood and small diameter sawlogs,
the 10 cm diameter class is appropriate as a
reference.
The choice of
reference diameter class leads to differences in
the estimating of available commercial fibre
supply.
Background
Studies
Draft background
studies have been completed on factors affecting
fibre supply, such as sustainable forest
management, material efficiency, tree improvement
for industrial forest plantations and recovered and
non-wood fibres.
Investigations into
the relationship between reference diameter class
and volume are continuing. We aim at developing
equations to translate volumes at different
diameter classes.
An analysis of the
harvesting and logging residues statistics will be
initiated in May. The logging residues statistics
will be useful in filling the gap between
commercial growing stock and the Forest Products
Yearbook statistics.
A study on land use
change will analyze the extent and rate of
converting forest land into agricultural land. This
work intends to act as a verification of our
deforestation assumptions by analyzing the
projection being made for agricultural land
increases.
Issues
Several key issues
have been identified by the GFSS team.
- Data
validation. Input from governments, the private
sector, and NGOs is essential in order to
improve the validity of GFSS. Each of these
parties is invited to critique and improve upon
supply estimates. To do this, a series of
regional discussions in key countries is
suggested.
- Policy
development. It is important to sensitize
governments to the importance of GFSS for policy
development. The depth of the data search, in
conjunction with the scope of the model, has
made GFSS an invaluable tool in creating future
forest policy.
- Forest
resources information. The information provided by the
GFSS model is only as good as the database
behind the numbers. Continued efforts towards
improving forest data will result in better
future fibre supply projections.
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