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September 2016

COUNTRIES REQUIRING EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE FOR FOOD
(total: 36 countries)

 
Click on country to see details in the GIEWS Country Briefs

AFRICA ( 28 countries )

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Nature of Food InsecurityMain ReasonsChanges from last report1
Exceptional shortfall in aggregate food production/supplies
Central African Republic
Conflict, displacements and food supply constraints
The Internally Displaced Person (IDP) caseload declined from 4 482 000 in November 2015 to 384 000 in late July 2016, following a relative improvement of the security situation in some areas of the country. However, the security conditions continue to be volatile. According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), valid for the period November 2015–June 2016, about 1 787 000 people (36 percent of the total population), are in need of urgent assistance (IPC Phase 3: “Crisis” and IPC Phase 4: “Emergency”), 19 percent more than in November 2014. The areas most affected by food insecurity are the sub-prefectures of Kabo (Ouham prefecture) Mbrès (Nana-Gribizi prefecture) and Bambari (Ouaka prefecture).
Malawi
Sharply reduced cereal production in 2016 and higher food prices
Maize production in 2016 decreased by one-third compared to the five-year average, resulting in tighter supplies and higher prices. The number of people requiring assistance is estimated at 6.5 million.
Zimbabwe
Drought-affected 2016 production
The El Niño-induced drought resulted in a sharp decrease in the 2016 cereal production and the loss of livestock. An estimated 33 percent of the rural population require assistance during the October-December 2016 period. This number is projected to increase to 44 percent, approximately 4 million people, during the peak of the lean period (January–March 2017).
Widespread lack of access
Burundi
Civil insecurity and economic downturn
Disruption to markets, farming activities and livelihoods, coupled with limited humanitarian assistance and declining food import capacity, continue to seriously affect food security conditions of households, especially in Kirundo, Muyinga, Rutada and Makamba provinces, as well as rural areas near Bujumbura. About 2.3 million people are estimated to be severely food insecure.
Chad
Large caseload of refugees continues to put additional pressure on local food supplies
Over 388 000 refugees, 106 177 IDPs, as well as an estimated 92 058 Chadian returnees, continue to add pressure on local food supplies, negatively affecting food security. Over 1 million people are estimated to be in need of food assistance according to the latest “Cadre Harmonisé” analysis.
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Conflict and displacements in eastern provinces
As of early August 2016, the IDP caseload was estimated at 1.7 million. About 43 percent of the displaced population is located in the North Kivu province and the rest mainly reside in Sud-Kivu, Maniema and the former Katanga Province. An estimated 5.9 million people are in need of urgent humanitarian assistance in Eastern and Southern conflict-affected provinces (June 2016). Influx of refugees straining the already limited resources of host communities As of June, refugees from the CAR, mainly hosted in the northern Nord–Ubangi and Sud-Ubangi provinces (former Equateur Province), were estimated at about 112 800. As of early August, refugees from Burundi, mainly hosted in Sud-Kivu province, were estimated at about 25 000. As of mid-August, refugees from South Sudan, mainly hosted in Haut-Uele province, were estimated at about 18 600.
Djibouti
Inadequate pasture availability due to consecutive unfavourable rainy seasons
About 227 000 people are severely food insecure, down from previous estimates, mainly in pastoral southeastern areas and in the Obock Region.
Eritrea
Vulnerability to food insecurity due to El Niño-related drought and economic constraints
Ethiopia
Lingering effects of the 2015 severe drought on livestock and crop production
About 9.7 million people are severely food insecure, mainly in eastern areas of Oromia, Amhara and Tigray regions as well as in Afar and northern Somali regions.
Lesotho
Drought-reduced 2016 production and higher food prices
Cereal production declined steeply in 2016, while higher prices are negatively impacting on food access. As a result, almost 709 394 people are food insecure.
Mozambique
Drought affected 2016 production and higher food prices
Drought conditions resulted in lower cereal outputs in southern provinces and in parts of central provinces, while higher prices are adversely impacting food access. Approximately 2 million people are food insecure.
Niger
Recurrent severe food crisis
More than 657 000 people are estimated to be in Phase 3: “Crisis” and above according to the last “Cadre Harmonisé” analysis. Approximately 60 000 Malian refugees are estimated to be living in the country. Almost 114 000 people in the southeast Diffa Region have been displaced due to fear of attacks.
Nigeria
Economic downturn, population displacements and insecurity in northern areas
About 2.2 million people have been internally displaced due to the continuing conflict in northern parts of the country. About 3.4 million people, located mostly in Borno and Yobe, are estimated to be in need of food assistance according to the last “Cadre Harmonisé” analysis. The sharp depreciation of the naira (national currency), coupled with persisting civil conflict in northern states has contributed to the continuing strong upward trend of food prices.
South Sudan
Conflict, civil insecurity and severe economic downturn
Over 4.8 million people are severely food insecure, mainly in the conflict-affected states of Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile, but also in Northern Bahr el Ghazal State due to insecurity, trade disruptions and high prices.
Severe localized food insecurity
Burkina Faso
Food security conditions remain difficult in several regions, especially in Oudalan and Soum provinces, mostly due to rainfall and cereal production deficits in 2015. The country also continues to host a large number of refugees from neighbouring Mali
Over 33 000 Malian refugees are estimated to be living in the country. About 233 300 people are estimated to be in need of food assistance according to the last “Cadre Harmonisé” analysis.
Cameroon
Influx of refugees putting strain on host communities
The number of refugees from the Central African Republic (CAR), who mainly entered East, Adamaoua and North regions, was estimated at 274 000 in June 2016. About 66 000 refugees from Nigeria have entered the Far North and North regions since May 2013. In February 2016, the number of food insecure people was estimated at 2.4 million, more than twice the level in June 2015. The most affected area is the Far North Region. Population displacement In the Far North Region, insecurity along the borders with Nigeria has led to the internal displacement of 150 000 persons.
Congo
Influx of refugees straining the already limited resources of host communities
As of late March 2016, about 28 600 refugees from the CAR are sheltering in the country.
Guinea
The Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) epidemic has ended
All neighbouring countries have re-opened their borders with Guinea, which has led to a significant increase in trade flows. About 148 400 people are estimated to be in need of food assistance according to the last “Cadre Harmonisé” analysis.
Kenya
Adverse weather on pastoral livelihoods during the first semester of 2016
About 640 000 people are severely food insecure, mainly located in northeastern and southeastern pastoral areas, following the negative impact of poor March-to-May rains on herds and grazing resources.
Liberia
The EVD epidemic has ended
The country is hosting more than 20 000 refugees as of end-February 2016, most of them from Côte d’Ivoire. About 24 900 people are estimated to be in need of food assistance according to the latest “Cadre Harmonisé” analysis.
Madagascar
Drought conditions in southern areas
Prolonged dryness in southern regions cause a successive annual reduction in the agricultural output, resulting in severe food insecurity in these areas. At the national level, rice production is forecast to remain below average, but marginally up on last year’s reduced level.
Mali
Population displacements and insecurity in northern areas
About 39 182 people have been internally displaced in the country mostly residing in Timbuktu, the most affected region. About 115 000 people, located mostly in Timbuktu, Mopti and Bamako regions, are estimated to be in Phase 3: “Crisis” and above, according to the last “Cadre Harmonisé” analysis.
Mauritania
Refugee caseload continues to put additional pressure on local food supplies
About 49 700 Malian refugees remain in southeastern Mauritania in the Mbeera camp. Over 149 000 people are estimated to be in Phase 3: “Crisis” and above, according to the last “Cadre Harmonisé” analysis.
Sierra Leone
The EVD epidemic has ended
Sierra Leone was declared free of the Ebola virus transmission in the human population in November 2015 resulting in most public gathering restrictions being lifted, improving domestic food markets and trade activities. However, about 420 000 people are estimated to be in need of food assistance according to the latest “Cadre Harmonisé” analysis.
Somalia
Conflict, civil insecurity and localized drought conditions
About 953 000 people are estimated to be in need of emergency assistance, mainly IDPs and drought affected agro-pastoral communities in northern regions.
Sudan
Conflict, civil insecurity and high food prices
An estimated 4.4 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance, mainly IDPs in conflict affected areas and pastoral communities.
Swaziland
Reduced cereal output following drought conditions
The 2016 cereal harvest declined and livestock mortality rates increased on account of the drought conditions. Higher food prices are further affecting the food security conditions, with an estimated 638 251 people in need of assistance.
Uganda
Below average crop production
About 393 000 people in Karamoja region are estimated to be severely food insecure following consecutive unfavourable rainy seasons.
   No change    Improving    Deteriorating+ New entry

ASIA ( 7 countries )

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Nature of Food InsecurityMain ReasonsChanges from last report1
Exceptional shortfall in aggregate food production/supplies
Iraq
Escalation of conflict and large internal displacement
Over 2 million people have been displaced since January 2014. Some 1.8 million beneficiaries (IDPs, non-displaced food insecure in conflict areas and food insecure host families) are receiving food assistance. Reduced internal trade and access to stocks held in the areas under ISIL control.
Syrian Arab Republic
Worsening civil conflict
Agricultural production is significantly affected by conflict. About 13.5 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance, with caseloads increasing. Although some international food assistance is being provided, Syrian refugees are also putting strain on other host communities in neighbouring countries. World Food Programme (WFP) plans to reach 4.5 million people within the country with food assistance and 2 million people in neighbouring countries.
Widespread lack of access
Democratic People's Republic of Korea
Impact of drought and floods in 2015
Heavy rains from late August 2016 reportedly caused some localized floods across northeastern parts of the country, resulting in damage to arable land, housing and infrastructure. These areas were also negatively impacted by the floods in August 2015. Despite an expected partial recovery in the 2016 aggregate food production, supplies remain tight and 18 million people remain dependent on Government-distributed food rations. Given the overall tight supply situation, most households are anticipated to continue to experience borderline or poor food consumption rates.
Yemen
Conflict, poverty, and high food and fuel prices
Around 21.2 million people, 82 percent of the population, require some kind of humanitarian assistance to meet their basic needs or protect their fundamental rights. According to the IPC analysis of June 2016, out of the 14.12 million food insecure people (9.4 percent higher than the previous year), about 7 million were in IPC Phase: 4 “Emergency”, while 7.1 million were in IPC Phase: 3 “Crisis”. High risk to crops from increasing locust numbers. The full extent of infestations is not well known due to difficulties in mounting surveys in insecure and remote areas. Torrential rains in July 2016 resulted in floods and landslides.
Severe localized food insecurity
Afghanistan
Continuing conflict and population displacement
Some 2.1 million people are classified as very severely food insecure. Over 700 000 people are internally displaced, mostly in Helmand Province. About 1.7 million people are targeted with food assistance.
Myanmar
Impact of floods for a second consecutive year
Floods in 2016 severely affected an estimated 400 000 people. Households in Chin and Rakhine states still remain highly vulnerable, as they have not yet recovered from the impact of last year’s floods.
Nepal
Lingering impact of the 2015 earthquake and localized floods in 2016
An earthquake struck the country in April 2015, mostly impacting central and western parts and resulting in the loss of nearly 9 000 lives. Despite overall improved prospects for 2016 cereal production, localized flooding in several locations have caused some damage to the summer crops.
   No change    Improving    Deteriorating+ New entry

NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE AND OCEANIA ( 1 country )

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Nature of Food InsecurityMain ReasonsChanges from last report1
Severe localized food insecurity
Papua New Guinea
Impact of the prolonged drought, frost and forest fires
A prolonged El Niño-driven drought and frost in 2015 affected around 2.7 million people. Heavy rains in February and March resulted in localized flooding exacerbating the existing levels of vulnerability. Severe localized staple food production shortfalls, particularly in the Highlands Region, are expected to worsen the food insecurity situation of vulnerable groups.
   No change    Improving    Deteriorating+ New entry

 

COUNTRIES WITH UNFAVOURABLE PROSPECTS FOR CURRENT CROPS
(total: 3 countries)

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CountryMain ReasonsChanges from last report1
AFRICA ( 1 country )
Central African RepublicThe widespread conflict, which caused large-scale displacements, the loss and depletion of households’ productive assets and input shortages continue to weigh on 2016 production prospects
ASIA/NEAR EAST ( 1 country )
Timor-LesteCereal production prospects indicate a reduced 2016 crop for the second consecutive year
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN ( 1 country )
ParaguayWheat and maize outputs in 2016 are anticipated to decline by 25 percent and 30 percent, respectively, their lowest levels since 2013, as low prices and high costs discouraged farmers from planting+
   No change    Improving    Deteriorating+ New entry

TERMINOLOGY

Countries requiring external assistance for food are expected to lack the resources to deal with reported critical problems of food insecurity. Food crises are nearly always due to a combination of factors, but for the purpose of response planning, it is important to establish whether the nature of food crises is predominantly related to lack of food availability, limited access to food, or severe but localized problems. Accordingly, the list of countries requiring external assistance is organized into three broad, not mutually exclusive, categories:

  • Countries facing an exceptional shortfall in aggregate food production/supplies as a result of crop failure, natural disasters, interruption of imports, disruption of distribution, excessive post-harvest losses, or other supply bottlenecks.

  • Countries with widespread lack of access, where a majority of the population is considered to be unable to procure food from local markets, due to very low incomes, exceptionally high food prices, or the inability to circulate within the country.

  • Countries with severe localized food insecurity due to the influx of refugees, a concentration of internally displaced persons, or areas with combinations of crop failure and deep poverty.

Unfavourable Prospects for Current Crops are countries where prospects point to a shortfall in production of current crops as a result of a reduction of the area planted and/or yields due to adverse weather conditions, plant pests, diseases and other calamities.


1. Crop Prospects and Food Situation, No. 2, June 2016
The maps on the GIEWS homepage indicate countries in crisis requiring external assistance for food.