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December 2015

COUNTRIES REQUIRING EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE FOR FOOD
(total: 33 countries)

Countries in crisis requiring external assistance for food are expected to lack the resources to deal with reported critical problems of food insecurity. The list below covers crises related to lack of food availability, widespread lack of access to food, or severe but localized problems. However, many countries are also severely affected by high food and fuel prices. These include countries which are large net importers of cereals and fuels, with generally low per capita incomes, relatively high levels of malnutrition, and for which there is a strong transmission of high international food prices1.
 
Click on country to see details in the GIEWS Country Briefs

AFRICA ( 26 countries )

Map View 
Nature of Food InsecurityMain ReasonsChanges from last report2
Exceptional shortfall in aggregate food production/supplies
Central African Republic
Conflict, displacements and constraints in available supplies
The Internally Displaced Person (IDP) caseload increased from 378 000 in late August to 400 000 in mid October due to the resurgence of inter-communal violence. In September 2015, about 1.8 million people were estimated to be in need of food assistance. The significant tightening of food supplies has driven up prices.
Zimbabwe
Sharply-reduced 2015 maize production
Maize production in 2015 decreased by 49 percent, to 742 000 tonnes, compared to the previous five-year average. As a result, an estimated 1.49 million people require assistance, well above the level of 2014 (564 599 people) but below the 2.2 million estimated in 2013. Cereal production outlook for the 2016 crops is uncertain on account of unfavourable weather forecasts.
Widespread lack of access
Burkina Faso
Massive influx of refugees from Mali puts additional pressure on local food supplies
Over 32 000 Malian refugees are estimated to be living in the country. About 126 000 people are estimated to be in need of food assistance according to the last "Cadre Harmonisé" analysis.
Chad
Large influx of refugees puts additional pressure on local food supplies
Over 460 000 people from the Sudan’s Darfur Region, the Central African Republic and northern Nigeria, as well as the return of an estimated 340 000 Chadians, have put added pressure on local food supplies, negatively affecting food security. Over 461 000 people are estimated to be in need of food assistance according to the last "Cadre Harmonisé" analysis.
Djibouti
Inadequate pasture availability due to consecutive unfavourable rainy seasons
About 120 000 people are severely food insecure, mainly in pastoral southeastern areas and in the Obock Region.
Eritrea
Vulnerability to food insecurity due to El Niño-related drought and economic constraints
Guinea
Impact of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak
EVD has had a serious negative impact on economic activities and livelihoods, gravely affecting the food security situation of large numbers of people. About 40 500 people are estimated to be in need of food assistance according to the last "Cadre Harmonisé" analysis.
Liberia
Impact of the EVD outbreak
EVD has had a serious negative impact on economic activities and livelihoods, gravely affecting the food security situation of large numbers of people. About 17 000 people are estimated to be in need of food assistance according to the last "Cadre Harmonisé" analysis.
Malawi
Reduced crop production and flooding
Maize production in 2015 declined by 30 percent due to dry spells and floods. The number of people requiring assistance in 2015 is estimated at 2.8 million, up from 1.3 million in 2014. Strong maize price gains are also constraining food access and further aggravating food security conditions. Cereal production outlook for the 2016 crops is uncertain on account of unfavourable weather forecasts.
Mali
Population displacements and insecurity in northern areas
About 116 000 people are estimated to be in Phase 3: "Crisis" and above according to the last "Cadre Harmonisé" analysis.
Mauritania
Influx of refugees puts additional pressure on local food supplies and high food prices constrain access
More than 52 000 Malian refugees remain in southeastern Mauritania. Over 149 000 people are estimated to be in Phase 3: "Crisis" and above according to the last "Cadre Harmonisé" analysis.
Niger
Recurrent severe food crisis
About 657 000 people are estimated to be in Phase 3: "Crisis" and above according to the last "Cadre Harmonisé" analysis. Over 49 000 Malian refugees and 105 000 Nigerian refugees are estimated to be living in the country. Severe depletion of household assets and high levels of indebtedness.
Sierra Leone
Impact of the EVD outbreak
EVD has had a serious negative impact on economic activities and livelihoods, gravely affecting the food security situation of large numbers of people. About 421 000 people are estimated to be in need of food assistance according to the last "Cadre Harmonisé" analysis.
Severe localized food insecurity
Burundi
Unrest and civil insecurity
Disruption to markets, farming activities and livelihoods, seriously affect food security conditions of households in Kirundo, Muyinga and Makamba provinces.
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Cameroon
Influx of refugees exacerbating food insecurity of the host communities, Displacement
The number of refugees from the Central African Republic (CAR), which mainly entered East, Adamaoua and North regions, was estimated at 253 000 in late September 2015. About 63 000 refugees from Nigeria mainly entered the Far North Region since May 2013. In September 2015, the number of food insecure was estimated at 1.27 million. The most affected areas are the North and Far North regions. Insecurity along the borders with Nigeria has led to the internal displacement of 81 700 individuals.
Congo
Influx of refugees straining the already limited resources of host communities
As of late September 2015, about 30 000 refugees from the CAR are sheltering in the country.
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Conflict and displacements in eastern provinces, Influx of refugees straining on already limited resources of host communities
As of September 2015, the total number of IDPs was estimated at 1.6 million. In the third quarter of 2015 (June to September), 260 000 people were newly displaced. An estimated 4.5 million people are in need of urgent humanitarian assistance in Eastern and Southern conflict affected provinces (September 2015). As of late August, refugees from the CAR, mainly hosted in the northern Equateur Province, were estimated at about 97 000.
Ethiopia
Impact of severe drought on livestock and crop production
The estimated number of food insecure people has sharply increased from 2.9 million in January 2015 to 8.2 million in October, as severe rainfall deficits led to the rapid deterioration of food security conditions in several agro pastoral and pastoral areas. Locally, thousands of livestock deaths are severely limiting availability of nutritious livestock products and household income.
Kenya
Reduced second season crop production during the first quarter of 2015 and worsening pasture conditions
About 1.1 million people are severely food insecure, mainly located in coastal and northeastern counties.
Lesotho
Reduced crop production in 2015
Reflecting the slightly reduced 2015 maize output, an estimated 463 936 people require assistance, up 3 percent from last year. Cereal production outlook for the 2016 crops is uncertain on account of unfavourable weather forecasts
Madagascar
Flooding and reduced crop production in 2015
Cyclones and flood damage in early 2015 negatively impacted on livelihoods and crop production, particularly affecting southern regions where the rate of food insecurity is acute. An estimated 1.89 million people are food insecure, including 400 000 people who require immediate assistance.
Mozambique
Flooding in central provinces and reduced localized crop production in 2015
The number of food insecure persons in 2015 is estimated at about 138 000. Cereal production outlook for the 2016 crops is uncertain on account of unfavourable weather forecasts.
Somalia
Conflict, civil insecurity and reduced localized crop production
About 1 million people are estimated to be in need of emergency assistance, mainly IDPs and poor households in southern and central regions.
South Sudan
Conflict, civil insecurity and reduced crop production in conflict-affected areas
Over 2.3 million people have fled their homes since the conflict erupted at the end of 2013. About 2.4 million people, including 40 000 people in the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Household Phase 5: "Catastrophe", are severely food insecure, mainly in conflict-affected states of Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile.
Sudan
Conflict and civil insecurity
An estimated 3.9 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance, mainly IDPs in conflict affected areas.
Uganda
Below-average crop production
About 295 000 people in Karamoja region are estimated to be severely food insecure following consecutive unfavourable rainy seasons.
   No change    Improving    Deteriorating+ New entry

ASIA ( 7 countries )

Map View 
Nature of Food InsecurityMain ReasonsChanges from last report2
Exceptional shortfall in aggregate food production/supplies
Iraq
Escalation of the conflict and large internal displacement
Over 2 million people have been displaced since January 2014. Some 1.8 million beneficiaries (IDPs, non-displaced food insecure in conflict areas and food insecure host families) are receiving food assistance. Internal trade restrictions and reduced access to stocks held in the areas under ISIL control.
Syrian Arab Republic
Worsening civil conflict
Agricultural production significantly affected by conflict. About 13.5 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance, with caseloads increasing. Although some international food assistance is being provided, Syrian refugees are also putting strain on other host communities in neighbouring countries. WFP plans to reach 2 million people with food assistance in neighbouring countries and 4.5 million within the country.
Widespread lack of access
Democratic People's Republic of Korea
Impact of drought and floods
Poor rains between mid-April and mid-July, coupled with short supplies of irrigation water, sharply reduced the 2015 early season crops and negatively impacted the main food crops. Heavy rains from mid-July to early August reportedly caused some localized floods across North Hamgyong and Rason provinces, located in the northeastern part of the country, causing severe damage to housing and infrastructure (including schools, roads and bridges). With drought conditions and floods this season, the food security situation is likely to deteriorate compared to the situation of the previous years, when most households were already estimated to have borderline or poor food consumption rates.
Yemen
Conflict, poverty, and high food and fuel prices
Around 21.2 million people, 82 percent of the population, require some kind of humanitarian assistance to meet their basic needs or protect their fundamental rights According to the IPC indicative analysis of June 2015, out of the 12.9 million food insecure people across the country, about 6.1 million were in Phase: 4 "Emergency", while 6.8 million were in Phase: 3 "Crisis". The level of food insecurity increased by 21 percent compared to the previous year.
Severe localized food insecurity
Afghanistan
Continuing conflict and population displacement
Some 2.1 million people are classified as very severely food insecure. Over 700 000 people are internally displaced, mostly in Helmand Province. About 1.7 million people targeted with food assistance.
Myanmar
Impact of July-August floods
Nearly 1.7 million people have been affected by heavy rainfall and the passing of Cyclone Komen in July. The floods caused severe damage to productive assets and resulted in a reduction of the 2015 main season paddy production in the flood affected areas.
Nepal
Impact of the April earthquake
The earthquake that struck in April, mostly impacting central and western parts, resulted in the loss of nearly 9 000 lives. In addition, the consequent damage to the agricultural sector contributed to a reduction in 2015 cereal output, mainly for rice and maize crops
   No change    Improving    Deteriorating+ New entry

 

COUNTRIES WITH UNFAVOURABLE PROSPECTS FOR CURRENT CROPS
(total: 21 countries)

Map View 
CountryMain ReasonsChanges from last report2
AFRICA ( 16 countries )
AngolaDry conditions at the start of the 2015/16 cropping season (October-June) have negatively impacted on planting activities and establishment of early-planted crops. Weather forecasts for the season, influenced by the current strong El Niño episode that is predicted to continue until early 2016, point to a higher probability of below normal rains until March 2016 across large portions of the subregion. As a result, 2016 production prospects are muted+
BotswanaDry conditions at the start of the 2015/16 cropping season (October-June) have negatively impacted on planting activities and establishment of early-planted crops. Weather forecasts for the season, influenced by the current strong El Niño episode that is predicted to continue until early 2016, point to a higher probability of below normal rains until March 2016 across large portions of the subregion. As a result, 2016 production prospects are muted+
Central African RepublicThe widespread conflict, which caused large-scale displacements, the loss and the depletion of the households’ productive assets and input shortages, is expected to severely affect the outcome of the current cropping season
EritreaPoor and erratically-distributed rains have affected main season crops in central highlands+
EthiopiaPoor and erratically-distributed rains have severely affected 2015 main "meher" season crops in eastern parts of the country
LesothoDry conditions at the start of the 2015/16 cropping season (October-June) have negatively impacted on planting activities and establishment of early-planted crops. Weather forecasts for the season, influenced by the current strong El Niño episode that is predicted to continue until early 2016, point to a higher probability of below normal rains until March 2016 across large portions of the subregion. As a result, 2016 production prospects are muted+
MadagascarDry conditions at the start of the 2015/16 cropping season (October-June) have negatively impacted on planting activities and establishment of early-planted crops. Weather forecasts for the season, influenced by the current strong El Niño episode that is predicted to continue until early 2016, point to a higher probability of below normal rains until March 2016 across large portions of the subregion. As a result, 2016 production prospects are muted+
MalawiDry conditions at the start of the 2015/16 cropping season (October-June) have negatively impacted on planting activities and establishment of early-planted crops. Weather forecasts for the season, influenced by the current strong El Niño episode that is predicted to continue until early 2016, point to a higher probability of below normal rains until March 2016 across large portions of the subregion. As a result, 2016 production prospects are muted+
MozambiqueDry conditions at the start of the 2015/16 cropping season (October-June) have negatively impacted on planting activities and establishment of early-planted crops. Weather forecasts for the season, influenced by the current strong El Niño episode that is predicted to continue until early 2016, point to a higher probability of below normal rains until March 2016 across large portions of the subregion. As a result, 2016 production prospects are muted+
NamibiaDry conditions at the start of the 2015/16 cropping season (October-June) have negatively impacted on planting activities and establishment of early-planted crops. Weather forecasts for the season, influenced by the current strong El Niño episode that is predicted to continue until early 2016, point to a higher probability of below normal rains until March 2016 across large portions of the subregion. As a result, 2016 production prospects are muted+
South AfricaDry conditions at the start of the 2015/16 cropping season (October-June) have negatively impacted on planting activities and establishment of early-planted crops. Weather forecasts for the season, influenced by the current strong El Niño episode that is predicted to continue until early 2016, point to a higher probability of below normal rains until March 2016 across large portions of the subregion. As a result, 2016 production prospects are muted+
SudanLate and erratically-distributed rains have severely affected 2015 sorghum crops in key producing areas+
SwazilandDry conditions at the start of the 2015/16 cropping season (October-June) have negatively impacted on planting activities and establishment of early-planted crops. Weather forecasts for the season, influenced by the current strong El Niño episode that is predicted to continue until early 2016, point to a higher probability of below normal rains until March 2016 across large portions of the subregion. As a result, 2016 production prospects are muted+
UgandaLate and erratic rains affected crops in uni-modal rainfall areas of Karamoja region
ZambiaDry conditions at the start of the 2015/16 cropping season (October-June) have negatively impacted on planting activities and establishment of early-planted crops. Weather forecasts for the season, influenced by the current strong El Niño episode that is predicted to continue until early 2016, point to a higher probability of below normal rains until March 2016 across large portions of the subregion. As a result, 2016 production prospects are muted+
ZimbabweDry conditions at the start of the 2015/16 cropping season (October-June) have negatively impacted on planting activities and establishment of early-planted crops. Weather forecasts for the season, influenced by the current strong El Niño episode that is predicted to continue until early 2016, point to a higher probability of below normal rains until March 2016 across large portions of the subregion. As a result, 2016 production prospects are muted+
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN ( 5 countries )
El SalvadorProlonged and severe dry weather related to El Niño significantly reduced cereal outputs during the main 2015 first season which ended in September. Despite improved rains for the current second season, production prospects are uncertain. The Government and the international community are directly assisting the most affected populations, including the provision of food assistance
GuatemalaProlonged and severe dry weather related to El Niño significantly reduced cereal outputs during the main 2015 first season which ended in September. Rains have improved for the current second season, particularly in main producing regions which were not as affected by earlier dry weather. The Government and the international community are directly assisting the most affected populations, including the provision of food assistance particularly in the "dry corridor" of the country
HaitiProlonged and severe dry weather related to El Niño significantly reduced cereal outputs during the main 2015 first season which ended in September. Despite improved rains for the current second season, production prospects are uncertain. The Government and the international community are directly assisting the most affected populations, including the provision of food assistance+
HondurasProlonged and severe dry weather related to El Niño significantly reduced cereal outputs during the main 2015 first season which ended in September. Despite improved rains for the current second season, production prospects are uncertain. The Government and the international community are directly assisting the most affected populations, including the provision of food assistance
NicaraguaProlonged and severe dry weather related to El Niño significantly reduced cereal outputs during the main 2015 first season which ended in September. Despite improved rains for the current second season, production prospects are uncertain. The Government and the international community are directly assisting the most affected populations, including the provision of food assistance
   No change    Improving    Deteriorating+ New entry

TERMINOLOGY

Countries requiring external assistance for food are expected to lack the resources to deal with reported critical problems of food insecurity. Food crises are nearly always due to a combination of factors, but for the purpose of response planning, it is important to establish whether the nature of food crises is predominantly related to lack of food availability, limited access to food, or severe but localized problems. Accordingly, the list of countries requiring external assistance is organized into three broad, not mutually exclusive, categories:

  • Countries facing an exceptional shortfall in aggregate food production/supplies as a result of crop failure, natural disasters, interruption of imports, disruption of distribution, excessive post-harvest losses, or other supply bottlenecks.

  • Countries with widespread lack of access, where a majority of the population is considered to be unable to procure food from local markets, due to very low incomes, exceptionally high food prices, or the inability to circulate within the country.

  • Countries with severe localized food insecurity due to the influx of refugees, a concentration of internally displaced persons, or areas with combinations of crop failure and deep poverty.

Unfavourable Prospects for Current Crops are countries where prospects point to a shortfall in production of current crops as a result of a reduction of the area planted and/or yields due to adverse weather conditions, plant pests, diseases and other calamities.


1. See, for example, Soaring food prices: facts, perspectives, impacts and actions required, page 17, table 4.
2. Crop Prospects and Food Situation, No. 4, October 2015
The maps on the GIEWS homepage indicate countries in crisis requiring external assistance for food.