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17 June 2014
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El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Possible impact on crop production in 2014/15
 Current meteorological forecasts indicate a 70 percent probability of El Niño occurring during the Northern Hemisphere’s summer and 80 percent during the autumn or winter.

 Although no precise quantitative correlation has been established between the occurrence of El Niño and changes in agricultural production, a general pattern of potential changes in weather conditions and the possible impacts on agricultural production is given.

 The effect on agriculture will depend on the timing and severity of the El Niño, as well as the crop calendar in a particular region.

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