(Item 3007)

CONTENTS

• Time reference
• Explanatory notes
• Cautionary notes regarding country estimates

Time reference

The estimates refer to mid-year assessments.

Explanatory notes

The long-term series of demographic estimates and projections, which are stored in this domain, consist of the following:

• total population by sex
• urban and rural population

• agricultural and non-agricultural population (AP and NON-AP)
• total economically active population or labour force (EAP) by sex
• economically active population (or labour force) in agriculture (EAPA) by sex

The historical series cover the period 1950-2000, for the total population and the urban/rural population. The projection series for the total population cover the period 2005-2050, whereas in the case of urban/rural population the period is 2005-2030. On the other hand the historical series of total economically active population, agricultural population and agricultural labour force cover the period 1950-1990 and the projection series the period 2000-2010.

The total population series have been obtained from the UN Population Division, which prepares estimates and projections of the total population by sex and age for each fifth year from 1950 to 2050. These series are biennially revised and the present ones refer to the 2000 revision ("World population prospects: The 2000 Revision", United Nations, New York, 2001). The urban/rural population, the economically active population and the agricultural / non-agricultural population segments are obtained by systematically applying to the total population the series of relevant ratios (i.e. proportion of urban population, proportion of economically active population by sex and age, etc).

The estimates and projections of the proportion of urban/rural population are based on the UN quinquennial series as revised in 2002 ("World urbanization prospects: The 2001 Revision", UN, New York, 2002). The long-term decennial series of estimates and projections of the activity rates by sex and age have been produced by the ILO ("Economically active population, 1950-2010", Fourth edition, ILO, Geneva, 1996). The historical series (1950-1990) of the proportion of agriculture in total labour force by sex were also provided by the ILO, while the related projections (2000-2010) were produced by FAO. For more information about the methodology for agricultural labour force projections see: "World-wide estimates and projections of the agricultural population and labour force 1950-2010", FAO, 2000.

Information on agricultural population derived from national population censuses or surveys is scarce. In deriving estimates and projections of agricultural population presented here, FAO has largely relied on the close relationship existing between the ratio of economically active population in agriculture to total economically active population (EAPA/EAP) and the ratio of agricultural population to total population (AP/TP). For most countries the ratios were assumed to be equal, so that the agricultural population is derived by applying the EAPA/EAP ratio to the total population.

Cautionary notes regarding country estimates and projections

The basic sources used here (UN Population Division and ILO) provide world, continental and regional estimates that include all countries. However, for a number of small countries the estimates for some elements of the Population domain have not been presented separately. In order to allow for the calculation of the different country aggregates included in FAOSTAT (world, regions, economic groups, etc), FAO has prepared estimates for these countries. The countries involved are listed below with an indication (X) of the elements that have been estimated by FAO. However, because of the very rough nature of the estimates, the figures for these countries are not shown separately.

In addition, it should be noted that, as in the case of the other FAOSTAT domains, Jordan refers to the East Bank only*, UK includes Channel Island and Isle of Man, and Australia includes Christmas Island, Cocos Islands and Norfolk Island.

* West Bank and Gaza Strip population estimates are not shown separately but are included in the world, continental and regional totals.