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Hypotheses


Factors influencing development of market-oriented smallholder dairying in SSA
Factors affecting farm productivity in dairying

The following hypotheses guide this framework. Based on ILCA field experience, they focus on the factors that influence the development of market-oriented smallholder dairying in the continent, and on the factors that affect farm productivity in dairying. The latter correspond to the major expected areas of intervention.

Factors influencing development of market-oriented smallholder dairying in SSA

(1) As access to markets at the farm gate increases, farmers' practices change towards specialisation and intensification of dairy production.

(2) Increased demand for milk and dairy products is being met by the intensification of production, not by an increase in herd size.

(3) As food crop productivity increases, more land is allocated to livestock enterprise (production).

(4) The intensity of croplivestock production interactions is driven by population pressure on land.

(5) Intensity of croplivestock production interaction is positively related to access to dairy market.

(6) On mixed food crop/dairy farms, food crop production is accorded higher importance/priority when labour allocation decisions are made.

(7) Dairying offers lower returns to investment in comparison to other farm activities.

(8) Specialisation in dairy production is regarded by smallholders as undesirable because it is perceived as being too risky.

(9) Household welfare and security are enhanced by the incorporation of a dairy enterprise into smallholder crop-farming systems.

(10) Smallholder dairy farmers cannot achieve the same levels of cost efficiency as those achieved on large commercial farms.

(11) Labour associated with intensification of smallholder dairying is mostly shouldered by the women of the household.

(12) Supplemental income associated with intensified smallholder dairying is disproportionately retained by the men of the household.

(13) Regulations constitute the major constraints to increased commercialisation by small-scale entrepreneurs (processors - marketers).

(14) Policies related to dairy products are consumer-biased in sub-Saharan Africa (imports, fixed consumer prices, subsidies, non-price barriers like licensing etc).

(15) Growth of smallholder dairying has been greater where government has intervened with support services (e.g. veterinary) rather than by direct interventions (e.g. producing and marketing dairy products).

(16) The greater the degree of liberalisation of the dairy sector the fewer the number of smallholder dairy producers (i.e. smallholder are "squeezed out" of the market because of no economies of scale).

(17) Government intervention in dairy markets corresponds with increased participation in and growth of informal dairy markets.

(18) Market accessibility influences the ratio of marketed surplus (commercial sales to production).

(19) Community-level processing and handling enhance farmers' production and supply of dairy products.

(20) Consumption levels of marketed domestic dairy products is positively correlated to population concentration.

(21) Tastes and preferences are more important determinants to consumption patterns than household income level.

(22) Among urban households the demand for dairy products is greater than for meat.

(23) Relative expenditures for dairy products increase with household income levels in urban areas.

Factors affecting farm productivity in dairying

(24) Technologies adopted by smallholder dairy farmers are scale-neutral.

(25) Farmers' ranking of constraints to increased dairy production vary when intensification takes place.

(26) Most milk producers do not grow their own feeds.

(27) The production of improved forages is related to increased milk production.

(28) Land allocation to forage production is positively related to security of land tenure, and negatively to the access to communal or other land, and to the ability to acquire additional land.

(29) Lack of access to agro-industrial by-products is a factor limiting dairy intensification.

(30) For a given level of dairy production, use of agro-industrial by-products substitutes for forage production to intensify production.

(31) Extent of use of crop residues is negatively correlated to dairy intensification.

(32) Crop residues can provide the feed basis for profitable milk production during the dry season.

(33) Social and policy factors are more important determinant explaining the choice of genotype than higher milk production per se.

(34) Exotic germplasm is introduced into the herds of smallholder dairy farmers before improved management systems.

(35) Disease risk, germplasm availability and feed resources are key factors limiting the increased use of exotic germplasm.

(36) Exotic germplasm predominates among smallholder market-oriented dairy farmers.

(37) Significant productivity gains (litres/cow) can be obtained with pure indigenous breeds.

(38) Cost efficiency (including cost of risk) of milk production by crossbred cows is lower than that of indigenous cows.

(39) Availability and utilisation of veterinary services for curative interventions increase with intensification.

(40) Patterns of disease incidence change as dairy production intensifies.

(41) Acuity of reproductive wastages increases with the degree of utilisation of exotic germplasm.

(42) Reducing reproductive wastage will have the single most significant impact on milk production.

(43) For dairying vs other livestock enterprises, disease-risk control is cost-effective.

(44) Availability and cost of credit are a major obstacle to dairy intensification.

(45) Most milk is processed/transformed in some way before being sold by the smallholder producer.

(46) Processing/handling milk on-farm is perceived by farmers as a major constraint to increased milk production and processing.


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