6.1 GENERAL OBSERVATIONS
6.2 THE OUTCOMES
As indicated by Collinson (1991) in a CGIAR Secretariat review of the publications containing analysis on the research impact of IARCs, most of the articles and material available have been conducted at the local level, there have been very few deliberate impact assessment studies mounted anecdotal evidence abounds, estimations are sometimes the result of back-of the-envelope calculations many successes have been described but only in a public relations format, without formal adoption studies, and there is not yet a Center that has systematic impact assessment built into its management process. Many studies have used experimental data to estimate the margin of advantage of improved genetic material, for example, and whenever possible these have been supplemented with farm level trials.
A review in 1990 by Echeverría, R. of studies available worldwide since 1958 of ex-post returns to investment in agricultural research and extension, using data for the period beyond 1980, found 12 economic studies for South America. These dealt with maize in Panama, wheat in Brazil, rice in Uruguay, wheat, and maize for South America in general (based on data from PROCISUR), if we only consider those crops with a CGIAR mandate.
In terms of Impact Assessment studies by the three centers located in the LAC region:
(i) CIMMYT has undertaken several studies on the impact of mainly wheat research in LAC, but also a few on maize;(ii) CIP published in 1996, several case studies, on the economic impact of CIP-related technologies, including 3 cases in the region, generally at the local level, two on potatoes and one in sweet potatoes;
(iii) CIAT has carried out evaluations at the local level in rice, beans, cassava and on tropical pastures.
(iv) The three Centers published a joint report in July of 1992, on "CIAT, CIMMYT, and CIP: Their Role in Agricultural research in Latin America and the Caribbean". One of the sections of this paper deals with the Impact of the three Centers in the region, and another one with the " future" impact.
There are a few other studies on the mandated crops of the CGIAR by entities or authors from outside of the CG system.
1. Starting with the joint report written in 1992 by the three Centers jointly, these are the main aspects of success according to their report.
a) there has been an impact of the improved germplasm made available through the Centers; the impact has been clearly documented for beans, maize, rice and wheat, but still much work remains to be done. The impact of wheat has been the greatest in the region, with over 80 % of the wheat sown area planted with CIMMYT germplasm. Similarly, 80 % of irrigated rice area has been planted with CIAT-derived germplasm. In the case of beans, this is only 4 % of the planted area, 19 % in the case of maize and 25 % if you consider both rainfed and irrigated rice areas, In the case of cassava, it is said that germplasm adoption was only recently taking up momentum, and had yet to be documented, and that in potatoes, impact had not been so far documented in terms of area planted to improved germplasm, except that 33 varieties had been released in Latin America (by CIP? or CIP-related germplasm?). In terms of the future for grain crops, the challenge is to continue diffusion of improved varieties and management practices, and to ensure that previous gains are not eroded (maintenance research).In the case of rice, beans, and probably potatoes and sweet potatoes too, consumers would be the main beneficiaries from new technologies, as prices would expect to drop as a result of improved germplasm adoption. For maize and wheat, where prices are governed mainly by import prices, producers would be the main beneficiaries as well as producing savings in foreign exchange.
b) In terms of Institutional Strengthening, the efforts have gone to training, networking and information exchange and improved documentation on the commodities. Training has taken place in different forms, both specialized and also in postgraduate education, assisting M.S. and Ph.D. thesis (see Tables.....). We find all Centers involved naturally in Information exchange networks, CIMMYT and CIAT in material exchange networks, in wheat, rice, beans, maize, pastures and Cassava: the 3 Centers in networks on various diseases; CIAT much more involved in Scientific consultation networks, and both CIAT and CIP in collaborative research networks, such as PERCODEPA and PRACIPA for potatoes (CIP), PROFRIJOL and PROFRIZA for beans (CIAT);
c) In Information exchange, a minimum of 600 institutions receive periodic material from the Centers, and over 1000 are connected to their dissemination network. CIAT also provides a service of copies of scientific articles on request to national program researchers.
d) With respect to future impact, all Centers modifies their research strategies, giving now more attention to natural resource management research and to the availability of advanced research methodologies. A simulation of expected future impact of improved technologies for the mandated crops in the region, showed that the highest expected benefits should take place for rice, beef and maize, due to the large production base. For rice, they reflect a confidence in the newly developed upland varieties and in the momentum for irrigated rice too; for beef, the expectations are based in highly promising results for legume-grass systems in the savannas and Cerrados. For sweet potatoes, it was felt that research is still in an early phase, with no reliable estimates on expected future impact. The expected aggregate impact of pulses, potatoes and cassava were considerably lower.
e) Also in terms of future impact, the increased linkage of agriculture to other sectors of the economy can generate substantial indirect benefits.
f) concrete examples of future expected impacts given in the document are the following:
* given present low yields of potatoes in Bolivia, adoption of improved technologies could provide very high returns in that country:* good prospects of incorporating new rice cultivars of upland rice in rotation with or in association with improved pastures or other crops in the savannas, would have a high pay-off;
* there is a good chance of breakthroughs in the introduction of wheat resistance to helminthosporium fungus for tropical and subtropical zones, such as in southern Brazil, northern Argentina, Paraguay, and Eastern Bolivia, where it is an important problem.
* also, good prospects exist to develop genetic resistance of maize to acid soils, which would help solve the problem of aluminum toxicity, with substantial benefits, given the large areas covered with these acid soils.
In terms of equity, cassava and beans are important crops within the portfolio of small farmers, which is not the case of either rice or wheat (at least in Brazil). Maize and potatoes are also relevant to poor farmers, although to a considerable lesser degree than cassava or beans. The largest shares of the food budget of poor consumers are spent in beef and milk, across all the region. Wheat consumption is more or less stable across regions too. But with respect to the other commodities, particularly roots and tubers, and rice, the composition of the diet changes from country to country. In Mexico, for example, beans and maize are more important. Cassava consumption is very high in Paraguay, but potato consumption is high in the Andean region. All these commodities are principally used for food in LAC, except for maize (62 % is used for non-human consumption) and cassava (57 %).
2. Impact of CIP
In 1996, CIP published a series of case studies documenting success stories of CIP-related technologies, elaborated in-house by CIP scientists and NARS collaborators. Three of the case studies correspond to impacts observed in Latin America: two in Peru, and one in Dominican Republic. The first one corresponds to one of CIP great successes: varieties released and adopted with resistance to Late- Blight in the Peruvian Andes, a major source of yield loss in the Andes. The variety released in 1990 by the local INIA, was a cross of a seedling made in 1979 at CIP, which carried vertical resistance and some level of horizontal resistance. Two potato-producing regions and a total of four zones were surveyed. The improved variety resulted in reduced use of fungicides per hectare. A total coverage of about 25,000 ha are expected by 2020, with an observed diffusion in 1994 of 1,513 hectares. The second case study in the region corresponds to the successful application of IPM to control the sweet potato Weevil with sex pheromones in the Dominican Republic. In this country, sweet potato is a small farmer crop and is consumed by poor households. The sweet potato weevil inflicts heavy losses on producers by reducing the quality and weight of the roots. The case study evaluated the economic benefit of a pilot scheme started in 1992 with both public and private sector local organizations. Research was initiated back in 1989 by CIP and the national program and pheromone traps were developed and sold after 1991 at a low cost. By 1993, 235 farmers were using this control method. Average production at field level of with and without IPM practices was monitored, and the economic benefits appraised. It is expected that by 1997, the IPM practice would cover an area of 3,000 hectares, that is, one half of the total area sown to sweet potato in this country. The third case is again related to IPM practices on the Andean Potato Weevil in Peru. This was a collaborative on-farm research project between CIP and INIA in the area of Cusco, year 1991-92 and extended the following year to a contrasting setting in Cajamarca. The initial acceptance and monitoring of the adoption of IPM practices in the two communities was used to evaluate the returns to projects by NGOs designed to transfer IPM technology on a wider scale in Peru. The targeted area for the evaluation is a region which represents 2 % of the potato-growing area of Peru.
The selection of case studies by CIP imply that the perceived benefits from research at CIP would arise mainly of improved varieties with resistance to diseases, and to drought and viruses, successful application of IPM practices, and development of quality seed and true potato seed.
3. Impact of CIMMYT
Information based on a study by CIMMYT covering 1966-1990. At present, a new impact study is being launched, to up-date these estimates.
WHEAT
Almost half of the varieties released by national programs in LAC since 1966, contain CIMMYT germplasm., while CIMMYT-related varieties cover some 8,5 million hectares in the region, that is 87 % of the total wheat area, including 91 % in Argentina, 78 % in Brazil, and 95 % in Mexico. In the more recent years (1986-90), more wheat varieties were released by NARS in the region, and of those a larger fraction were varieties developed from a CIMMYT cross. In 1990, most of the varieties found in the fields had been released in the late 1970s and early 1980s.
Yields at farm level have been constantly increasing. CIMMYT has estimated that total production increase of wheat in LAC due to CIMMYT breeding programs, has increased by 3,4 million tons, The adoption in general, of improved wheat varieties in LAC, both in absolute and relative terms, has steadily increased over the years. In 1970, it was estimated that 11 % of the total wheat area in the region was planted to modem varieties. This percentage is said to have increased to 82 % by 1990. Comparable figures for rice in LAC would be 4 % in 1970 up to 58 % in 1990 (I suspect this is for irrigated rice only!) and in maize the estimated rate of adoption for 1990 is 46 %. It is worth mentioning too that whilst the Green revolution in wheat was a revolution in irrigated areas, over the past 10-15 years most of the expansion took place in rainfed areas, beginning with wetter areas and then moving to drier areas.
About half the current research effort of all wheat improvement programs goes into maintaining resistance to mutating pathogens; without this effort, yields would fall substantially. The newer varieties that promise near-term impact include varieties with more durable resistance to leaf rust (main disease), varieties for areas affected by high temperatures late in the growing season such as in Brazil and Paraguay, and varieties with improved drought tolerance, and more efficient in the use of moisture, nutrients and sunlight. This strategy has been chosen because further spread of MVs depends on the success in developing varieties for marginal areas, specially areas with moisture stress or poor water control. In these areas, breeding progress will be slower both in absolute and relative terms. In these areas where the yield advantage of the MVs is lower, other varietal traits, such as grain quality and the quantity and quality of crop by-products will become more important.
MAIZE
Some 552 thousand hectares of maize grown in Central America and the Caribbean are devoted to 99 maize varieties based on CIMMYT germplasm, Of the 146 varieties released by NARS in LAC between 1981 and 1990, over 70 % contain CIMMYT germplasm. In South America and Mexico, over 100 varieties released by NARS are based on CIMMYT germplasm, accounting for some 5 million hectares. The maize germplasm developed with the programs in Central America, has virtually eliminated the threat of corn stunt there.
In terms of production ecologies, the estimated area with improved open- pollinated varieties (OPVs) in LAC lowland tropics, for 1990, was 2,1 million hectares, that is, 93 % of the area with improved OPVs. Hybrids containing CIMMYT derived materials cover some 2,3 million hectares in this same ecology, which is about 64 % of the area with hybrids in the lowland tropics of the region. The second major production ecology in the region with material from CIMMYT are the subtropics and mid-altitude and highland environments, of which 0,1 million hectares are planted to CIMMYT-related improved OPVs (94 % of the total sown with OPVs) and another 1,2 million with hybrids, that is 30 % of the area with hybrids. In synthesis, the major impact has taken place in the lowland environments, with both hybrids and OPVs. Ninety three percent of the area with OPVs in LAC are sown to CIMMYT-related materials, and 47 % of the are with hybrids.
New products that promise impact in the near future include aluminum-tolerant and acid-soil tolerant germplasm, that would enable an estimated increase of over 0,4 t/ha for some 2 million hectares in the region. Also, benefits can be expected from varieties with improved drought tolerance, greater resistance to insects, as well as varieties more efficient in the use of moisture, nutrients, and sunlight.
