These papers were commissioned by FAO to provide technical background material for the High-Level Expert Forum on "How to Feed the World in 2050" to be held at FAO, Rome, 12-13 October 2009. Please see the Expert Meeting report for expert comments on these papers as well as additional presentations made at the June 2009 Expert Meeting.*
Session 1: Global agriculture to 2050: How will the world’s food and agriculture sector develop in a dynamically changing economic and resource environment?
- Macroeconomic environment, commodity markets: A longer term outlook (Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, Israel Osorio-Rodarte, Andrew Burns and John Baffes)
- Poverty, growth and inequality over the next 50 years. (Evan Hillebrand)
Session 2: The resource base to 2050: Will there be enough land, water and genetic potential to meet future food and biofuel demands?
- World food and agriculture to 2030/2050. Highlights and views from mid-2009 (Nikos Alexandratos/FAO)
- World Agriculture in a Dynamically-Changing Environment: IFPRI’s Long-term Outlook for Food and Agriculture under Additional Demand and Constraints (Siwa Msangi and Mark Rosegrant)
- The resource outlook to 2050. By how much do land, water use and crop yields need to increase by 2050? (Jelle Bruinsma/FAO)
- How do climate change and bioenergy alter the long-term outlook for food, agriculture and resource availability? (Günther Fischer)
Session 3: The investment challenge to 2050: How much, where to invest, what priorities and what sources?
- Investment requirements under new demands on world agriculture: Feeding the world with bioenergy and climate change (Siwa Msangi, Simla Tokgoz, Miroslav Batka and Mark Rosegrant)
- Capital requirements for developing countries' agriculture to 2050. (Josef Schmidhuber, Jelle Bruinsma and Gerold Boedeker)
- Investment in Developing Countries’ Food and Agriculture: Assessing Agricultural Capital Stocks and their Impact on Productivity (Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel, Gustavo Anriquez, Hartwig de Haen and Oleg Nivyevskiy)
- International investments in agricultural productions. (David Hallam, FAO.)
Session 4: The investment challenge and the technology challenge to 2050
- Can technology deliver on the yield challenge to 2050? (R.A. Fischer, Derek Byerlee and G.O. Edmeades)
- Setting meaningful investment targets in agricultural research and development: Challenges, opportunities and fiscal realities (Nienke Beintema and Howard Elliott)
Session 5: Feeding the world in 2050: The global policy challenge
- World agricultural trade challenges to 2050 and requirements for evolving structure of world trade rules compatible with food security for developing countries (Alexander Sarris)
- Farm support policies that minimize distortionary effects (Aziz Elbehri and Alexander Sarris)
Session 6: Africa’s special role, problems and needs: What development model for Africa?
- Challenges and opportunities for African agriculture and food security: high food prices, climate change, population growth, and HIV and AIDS (Hans P. Binswanger-Mkhize)
- Can the smallholder model deliver poverty reduction and food security for a rapidly growing population in Africa? (Steve Wiggins)
- African Agriculture in 50 years: Smallholders in a Rapidly Changing World? (Paul Collier and Stefan Dercon)
*The views expressed in these papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.