27/03/2020

Humanitarian Assistance contexts
Food crisis countries and countries highly dependent on imports, countries:
- with already elevated levels of acute food insecurity;
- which are experiencing multiple stressors, such as below average agricultural production, recent or ongoing natural hazards, chronic poverty, economic crises or outbreaks of pests;
- where extremely tight movement restrictions impede access to crops or other activities;
- which are affected by insecurity, or conflict and/or elevated levels of political instability;
- which heavily rely on imports to meet their basic food consumption needs;
- which heavily rely on donor support to ensure food and nutrition security of the most vulnerable.

Food price increases

Instability generated by an outbreak and associated behavioral changes could result in temporary food shortages, price spikes, and disruption to markets. As an example, there has been panic buying and hiking of prices since news of the first case of COVID-19 in Nigeria broke in March 2020. In some places, hand sanitizers were being sold for more than 10 times the normal price. In a comparative perspective, when Ebola hit Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone in 2014, it fostered instability of crop prices from geographical and seasonal normal patterns, resulting in an atmosphere of economic uncertainty for producers and consumers. Domestic rice prices increased by over 30 per cent, while cassava prices went up by 150 per cent. During the SARS outbreak in 2003, panic buying and hoarding of food and other essentials were observed in some areas of China.

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In countries affected by political instability, insecurity and conflict, a COVID-19 outbreak could prove much more difficult to control and could potentially further exacerbate existing and underlying tensions.

There is a risk that the outbreak could be manipulated for political purposes, for example to enhance identity group divides, such as between ethnicities or displaced/non-displaced persons.

Disruptions to supply chains and a decrease in access to items of first necessity could result in increased competition over limited resources. Price spikes, economic instability and uncertainty over future directions as the pandemic spreads could also increase levels of social tension, mistrust between communities and disputes. Indeed, The Lancet in 2018 reported that ongoing conflict and chronic community mistrust impeded control of the most recent Ebola virus outbreak in DR Congo - rumours, misinformation, chronic mistrust of the government,a s well as resorting to traditional medicine practices, all impeded the response.

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Particularly in fragile and conflict-affected settings, further population movement/displacements could result as a consequence of food chain breakages and exacerbated social tensions.

The current crisis has other potential impacts on peace and security. For example, the health of UN peacekeepers in missions that the UNSC authorises is likely to become a significant concern.

To help maintain the safety of peacekeepers, it may become essential to enhance the capacity in different missions to provide care in the field or medical evacuation as needed.

Missions may also face challenges around troop rotations caused by travel restrictions, quarantine provisions and the closure of borders: the UN Mission in South Sudan has already experienced a postponement in its troop rotations.

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The agricultural sector plays an important role in influencing migratory patterns. Many commercial estates employ large numbers of seasonal migrant workers. In addition, small farmers who are involved in cash crop production often have to travel to complete marketing arrangements and buy new inputs. Infrastructure projects facilitate agricultural production and marketing but also encourage high levels of labour mobility and temporary migration.

Those less mobile groups who remain in rural areas have to manage the impacts of the HIV epidemic with a dwindling resource base. Those with fragile farming systems are far less able to cope with the impacts of HIV/AIDS, and as an increasing number of sick HIV-infected urban dwellers return to their rural communities, survival strategies become stretched and food security threatened.

The epidemic changed the projected age and sex structure, resulting in a population dominated by the elderly and the youth. In many countries, AIDS is erasing decades of progress made in improving mortality conditions and extending life expectancies.

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HIV/AIDS poses a direct threat to household food security as it affects the most productive household members. When a person is sick the household not only has to manage without their labour inputs but with the loss of labour from those who have to care for the sick. AIDS is characterized by recurrent periods of sickness, and so recurrent loss of labour, which eventually erodes agricultural production and food security.

Gross agricultural production is also affected by labour shortages. The FAO has estimated that in the 25 hardest hit countries in Africa, AIDS has killed around 7 million agricultural workers since 1985 and it could kill 16 million more before 2020. The most affected African countries could lose up to 26 percent of their agricultural labour force within a few decades and with agriculture still representing a large proportion of the gross domestic product, this loss in labour could have severe impacts on the national economy

HIV/AIDS has direct impacts on nutrition for the individual, the household and the community. For the individual, HIV infection, compounded by inadequate dietary intake, rapidly leads to malnutrition. Persons living with HIV have higher than normal nutritional requirements; approximately 50 percent more protein and 10-15 percent more energy per day is needed (Academy for Educational Development 2001, Woods 1999, James, Schofield 1990). Such interactions have serious consequences for the poor, who are more likely to be malnourished even before they become infected.

The rural and agricultural dimensions of the HIV/AIDS epidemic not only present devastating impacts on agricultural production, but also reduce the capacity of rural institutions to provide adequate services.

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In communities affected by Ebola, labour shortages are being experienced. Thus farmers cannot mobilize enough labour for activities such as weeding, crop protection, and even harvesting. Farmers claimed that Ebola is having considerable adverse effects on farming activities.

Travel restrictions and suspension of operations of periodic markets have disrupted trade flows of food commodities and other necessities. Due to the disruption of markets, there have been shortages of goods on the market and this has led to an increase in prices of key commodities.

The impact of the EVD outbreak on food security was not predominantly driven by limited food availability but rather by reduced food access. The food access problem was mostly the result of the reduction in economic activity both at the regional/national level and at the household level, which had an effect on households’ purchasing power. The ban and closure of markets and the restrictions to movement added further to the food access problem.

The cost of transporting goods in some cases has increased by 50 percent (UNDP et al 2015, SC et al. 2015), partly due to the reduction in the availability of transport services and the disruptions arising from having to negotiate quarantines and checkpoints imposed along many routes. The increase of transport prices will have been passed on to the consumer.

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The number of under-nourished people in the world increased by 75 million in 2007, to reach 923m. The biggest increases were in Asia, the Pacific and Sub-Saharan Africa. Much of this growth was attributed to increased food prices, compounding trends of rising numbers of people suffering from chronic food insecurity.

Even meeting existing needs became difficult as global food costs rose. WFP had to raise an additional $750m to cover existing programmes, and the agency’s total budget increased from $3 billion to $6bn in a matter of months in 2008.

Several studies identified high food prices as a possible contributing factor that added to grievances that triggered the protests of late 2010 and early 2011, first in Tunisia and then in other Near East and North African countries. All of the Arab Spring countries were/are net importers of food, which meant their inhabitants were highly vulnerable to the global food price spikes of 2008 and 2011. Combined with high levels of unemployment, this resulted in a steady increase in the cost of living and an erosion of living standards, which has been perceived as exacerbating food insecurity in the region.

The dominant explanation for the food-price–conflict link is consumer grievances: higher prices create or increase economic constraints and/or sentiments of (perceived) relative deprivation, which activates grievances that in turn lead to conflict. A second explanation emphasizes the breakdown of authority and legitimacy when the state fails to provide food security, leading people to act out grievances against the state.

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Increasing food prices make it more difficult for poor people to meet their food needs. The number of under-nourished people in the world increased by 75 million in 2007, to reach 923m. The biggest increases were in Asia, the Pacific and Sub-Saharan Africa. Much of this growth was attributed to increased food prices, compounding trends of rising numbers of people suffering from chronic food insecurity. The impact of the price rises varied between countries, depending in part on the sensitivity of local markets to global price movements and the degree to which countries are dependent on food imports. Liberia – a country heavily dependent on imported food – suffered badly, while in the Central African Republic, where the economy is based on agriculture and domestic production meets a greater proportion of food needs, impacts were more limited. In many cases, already vulnerable countries or population groups, such as those affected by conflict or repeated natural disasters, women-headed households and the urban poor, were hardest-hit. Most of the 30 countries and territories identified by the World Food Programme (WFP) as at risk were already of humanitarian concern, including Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Haiti, Kenya, Liberia, Niger, the Palestinian territories, Somalia and Zimbabwe. Many were already on FAO’s list of countries in crisis requiring external assistance. Even meeting existing needs became difficult as global food costs rose. WFP had to raise an additional $750m to cover existing programmes, and the agency’s total budget increased from $3 billion to $6bn in a matter of months in 2008.

Countries reacted in different ways: Somalis reacted to increases in the price of imported rice, the main staple food in northern and central Somalia, by reducing non-food purchases and buying less of some food items, turning to cheaper foods (locally produced sorghum) and eating lower-quality cereals. Children have been taken out of school and purchases of medicine have declined. Riots and civil disturbances took place in urban areas in many low- and middle-income countries in 2008, including Bangladesh, Côte d’Ivoire, Haiti, Indonesia and Mauritania.

Several studies identified high food prices as a possible contributing factor that added to grievances that triggered the protests of late 2010 and early 2011, first in Tunisia and then in other Near East and North African countries. All of the Arab Spring countries were/are net importers of food, which meant their inhabitants were highly vulnerable to the global food price spikes of 2008 and 2011. Combined with high levels of unemployment, this resulted in a steady increase in the cost of living and an erosion of living standards, which has been perceived as exacerbating food insecurity in the region. Sharp rises in domestic food prices from 2007 onwards also contributed to an unravelling of a social system whereby governments had offered subsidized food, housing, utilities and fuel, often along with employment in a large public sector – all of which they could no longer afford. However, this interpretation of the sequence of events has been contested and may not apply in all cases. In the case of Tunisia, FAO’s GIEWS reported relatively stable domestic food prices despite high international prices during the winter months of 2010 to 2011. Hence, based on this evidence, it seems unlikely that food price spikes triggered the beginnings of the Arab Spring in Tunisia.

The dominant explanation for the food-price–conflict link is consumer grievances: higher prices create or increase economic constraints and/or sentiments of (perceived) relative deprivation, which activates grievances that in turn lead to conflict. A second explanation emphasizes the breakdown of authority and legitimacy when the state fails to provide food security, leading people to act out grievances against the state. A number of recent analyses have found that the cohesiveness of political institutions in low-income countries deteriorates significantly when international food prices increase, while rising food prices and riots in Africa have also been associated with greater levels of political repression.

Food riots often erupt first in urban areas, where households depend primarily on markets for accessing food and are extremely vulnerable to price changes. However, price shocks may not necessarily result in a marked increase in food insecurity before triggering a conflict. It is rather the perceived risk of a deteriorating food security situation that can increase affected groups’ willingness to fight to protect their livelihoods, and hence changes in food security – rather than levels of food insecurity – are probably the most influential factors. Incentives to join or support conflicts and rebellions stem from a number of causes, of which the protection of food security is just one. Food insecurity may also help to sustain conflict. If post-conflict recovery proves difficult and food insecurity remains high, this can strengthen incentives for reigniting conflict.

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In communities affected by Ebola, labour shortages are being experienced. The reason for this includes the unwillingness of people to work in groups as they used to do. Thus farmers cannot mobilize enough labour for activities such as weeding, crop protection, and even harvesting. Farmers claimed that Ebola is having considerable adverse effects on farming activities. Quarantine measures and restrictions have disrupted marketing of goods including agricultural
produce. Travel restrictions and suspension of operations of periodic markets have disrupted trade flows of food commodities and other necessities. Due to the disruption of markets, there have been shortages of goods on the market and this has led to an increase in prices of key commodities. The range of price increase is between 13% for imported rice to over 40% for fish. Other commodities affected include cassava, ground nuts and palm oil. However, there are agricultural commodities whose prices have fallen drastically. For example, price of various assortment of vegetables has fallen to a point where a large part of the harvest is left to rot and the rest is sold at a throw away price. In general, respondents reported that they expect a reduction of yields.

Ebola breakout severely affected pest control and harvesting activities in quarantined communities. All three means of pest control, hunting, fencing and bird scaring were not performed in farms during the Ebola outbreak. This accelerated pest buildup.

The impact of the EVD outbreak on food security was not predominantly driven by limited food availability but rather by reduced food access. The food access problem was mostly the result of the reduction in economic activity both
at the regional/national level and at the household level, which had an effect on households’ purchasing power. The ban and closure of markets and the restrictions to movement added further to the food access problem. The impact of EVD on the household economy must consider the weakness of the local economies, especially in rural areas, before the crisis as well as the impact of EVD itself. All three countries have low per-capital income levels and
a large proportion of the population live below the national poverty lines, with little economic buffer from one season to the next. Changes in household expenditure patterns related to the restrictions on movements and market closures led to temporary price spikes and slumps as goods became unavailable or unsellable. The cost of transporting goods in some cases has increased by 50 percent (UNDP et al 2015, SC et al. 2015), partly due to the reduction in the availability of transport services and the disruptions arising from having to negotiate quarantines and checkpoints imposed along many routes. The increase of transport prices will have been passed on to the consumer. During the Ebola epidemic, households living in affected areas engaged in various strategies to cope with the loss of income and key food sources as a result of losing household members and the overall negative effects of the crisis. Most of the strategies are typically used in times of stress, such as switching expenditure patterns from nonessentials to essentials or increasing livestock sales. Other coping strategies not typically used were also adopted, including: selling and trading of goods door-to-door and engaging in non-professional health work as a contractor (e.g., social mobilizer, burial team member, ambulance driver,etc.). Overall, no sources of household food orincome appear to have been lost permanently. Assuch, there is no apparent change in the fundamental pattern ofrural livelihoods. However, livelihood patterns and income levels have changed
for households that lost workingmembers.

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Food crisis countries and countries highly dependent on imports, countries:
- with already elevated levels of acute food insecurity;
- which are experiencing multiple stressors, such as below average agricultural production, recent or ongoing natural hazards, chronic poverty, economic crises or outbreaks of pests;
- where extremely tight movement restrictions impede access to crops or other activities;
- which are affected by insecurity, or conflict and/or elevated levels of political instability;
- which heavily rely on imports to meet their basic food consumption needs;
- which heavily rely on donor support to ensure food and nutrition security of the most vulnerable.

Purchasing power/ markets and supply chains

A comparison with the 2014 Ebola crisis in West Africa might be instructive, even as one should do this with caution given differences in the outbreaks. The Ebola crisis resulted in panic, fear, restrictions and risk aversion behaviors that resulted in a drop in employment, income, foreign investment and demand for goods and services, ultimately impacting the purchasing power of the most vulnerable.

COVID-19 also has the potential to severely disrupt agricultural value chains and affect value chain actors to different degrees. Instability of crop prices, increased input prices and lower production can for example lead to lower negotiation power of producers towards collectors, as this was the case during the 2014 Ebola outbreak.

On the other hand, for collectors the limited freedom of movement may prohibit collection and distribution of agricultural goods, resulting in disruption of rural-urban food transportation and limited food availability in non-agricultural areas.