• 1. OVERVIEW
• 2. GENERAL BACKGROUND AND THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC SETTING 1/
• 3. THE 1996/97 CROP SEASON
• 4. ANALYSIS BY ZONE
• 5. FOOD SUPPLY SITUATION

The Mission’s evaluation is based on discussions with government officials at the national and local level, farmers, the business community, representatives of NGOs and churches, UN agencies and bilateral donors, field projects, private rural doctors and veterinarians. Market places were also visited to assess the availability, sources and prices of food and discuss the impact of locusts on the livelihood of the population. The results of several studies on the outcome of the crop season, the impact of the locust outbreak on crops and the nutritional situation of the population in various areas were also reviewed.

The Mission found that the impact of locusts was not uniform throughout the affected area, which could be divided into three zones (northern, central and southern). The southern zone was the most affected by the combined effect of locusts and poor rainfall, leading to the loss of most of the maize crop and a sharp reduction in the output of other crops such as cassava and sweet potatoes. The food supply situation is precarious for people in this zone, particularly in the southern coastal areas of Ambovombe, Ampanihy, Beloha and Tsihombe where some population migration is reported in most severely affected areas. Overall, cereal production (mainly maize and rice) was the worst affected with the reductions estimated at between 30-80 percent compared to 1996.

However, the production shortfall in the southern part of the country has been offset by good harvests in other parts where more than 90 percent of cereal output is produced. Abundant and regular rainfall during the growing season as well as the strong impact of several agricultural extension and food security projects benefited crops and resulted in significant increases in production. Rice and maize output exceeded the 1996 level and also the average of the last five years in the main producing areas of the centre and north.

Nationally, the Mission estimates the 1997 total cereal harvest (rice, maize and wheat) at 2.70 million tons, about the same as in 1996. Cassava and sweet potato production is estimated at some 2.83 million tons, down 1.3 percent. Cereal import requirements for the 1997/98 marketing year are evaluated at 168 000 tons, mostly rice and wheat. Three-fourths is expected to be supplied through commercial channels and the remainder, about 43 000 tons as food aid. Given the low purchasing power of the rural population in the south, the Mission considers the food supply situation as very precarious, particularly in the southern coastal areas. The available food supply for many rural households may not exceed two months’ requirements. The Mission, therefore, recommends urgent provision of food assistance for an estimated 472 000 people in the affected areas for a period of 3 months. This assistance should be in the form of food-for-work, which has been estimated at 3 871 tons.

Much of the food aid needed is either already available in the country, committed or can be purchased locally. However, given the possibility of a deterioration in the food and nutritional situation in the affected areas, a review of the situation should be undertaken in October by development agencies operating in the region under the coordination of the CGDIS to assess the need for further assistance. Consideration should also be given to providing seeds, particularly maize, millet and sorghum seed, to farmers for the upcoming crop season which starts in October/November. An information and awareness campaign is also needed on the on-going locust control activities in order to allay farmers’ fears of further crop losses to locusts. A prerequisite of these actions, however, is the intensification of locust control operations during the next two months to eliminate existing locust swarms prior to the start of the rainy season.

The fourth largest island in the world with an area of 587 000 km² and an estimated population of 14.1 million (1997), Madagascar is characterized by the diversity of its ecology and climate which makes it possible to grow temperate crops such as apples, pears, plums and citrus fruits, tropical products such as mangoes and litchi, as well as a wide variety of other crops including coffee, cloves, sisal, maize, tubers and various spices. The country also enjoys a unique marine resource potential (shrimps, lobsters, fish, etc.) while livestock husbandry, particularly for cattle, is a way of life for many people in southern and plateau areas of the country.

However, despite its considerable potential, Madagascar is classified as a Low-Income-Food-Deficit Country. Following a steady decline of the economic situation of the country during the 1970s and 1980s, some 75 percent of the population, mostly in rural areas, live below the poverty line. Real per caput income dropped by over 40 percent between 1970 and 1995. With investment representing only 11 percent of GDP, infrastructure and basic social services have badly deteriorated, especially in the southern part of the country. The economic stabilization programme initiated in 1986 has led to some positive results with the annual inflation rate falling from 39 percent in 1994 (following the depreciation of the Malagasy franc and loose monetary policy) and 37 percent in 1995 to 8 percent in 1996. The Central Bank base lending rate declined from 33 percent in January 1996 to 12 percent since May 1997 and the trade balance in both 1995 and 1996 was positive.

The southern and least endowed part of the country is also the region most affected by the economic difficulties of Madagascar. The area has an arid climate with an annual rainfall between 300 and 800 mm, except in the south-eastern region of Tolagnaro where the average rainfall exceeds 1000 mm annually. In most other areas, the availability of an adequate supply of water for human and livestock consumption, and for crops is a major recurring problem for most families. Livestock, particularly cattle rearing, traditionally holds a major economic and social place in the region as it provides some two-thirds of household income. However, animal numbers fluctuate widely from one year to another as most people tend to invest their savings in livestock in good years while the sale of animals acts as a cushion during the years of poor harvest. Southern Madagascar is also a source of many minerals and a relatively large variety of marine products. However, the poor state of communication facilities (rural roads, telecommunications) makes it difficult to develop the potential, including tourism, and contributes to the isolation of the region from Madagascar’s major trading centres.

3.1 Locust situation in 1996/97

In this regard, the next two months before the rains set in will be decisive in stopping the invasion. At the moment, the immature swarms are still waiting for favourable conditions to enable them to reach maturity and egg-laying stage. Therefore, the goal of control operations between now and November should be to reduce the swarms as much as possible to minimize the danger during the next crop season (1997/98).

The 1996/97 crop season started well with sufficient rainfall between October and December 1996. Cyclones Fabiola and Gretel which occurred in January 1997, despite causing considerable damage, created the right conditions for a good crop season. Rainfall was both abundant and well distributed over most of the country with the exception of the Androy region, which regularly suffers from insufficient rainfall.

Despite a slight delay in sowing, crops developed satisfactorily. Activities carried out under the National Agricultural Extension Programme (PNVA) and the active participation of several development and credit organizations in assisting farmers were also key factors in the favourable development of the crop season. Nevertheless, the province of Toliary experienced a serious reduction in rainfall during the months of March and June 1997 and also suffered from locust invasions. This situation seriously affected the far south of the province where the maize and rice crops suffered big losses due to locusts. Locusts also ravaged pastures, greatly reducing the grazing potential for livestock. The sweet potato and cassava crops suffered more from lack of rain.

3.2 Assessment of Crop Losses in 1996/97

Table 1: Madagascar - Food Production and Losses in Locust Affected Zones, 1996/97 (Tons)

	Maize			Rice			Cassava			Potatoes
	1996	1997	%	1996	1997	%	1996	1997	%	1996	1997	%
S. Coastal	10 064	2 012	-80.0	660	462	-30.0	55 582	36 128	-35.0	52 696	18 443	-65.0
S. East	140	131	-6.4	8 590	7 731	-10.0	40 975	40 155	-2.0	3 830	3 753	-2.0
N. East	870	696	-20.0	44 005	22 002	-50.0	57 137	57 137	0.0	6 985	6 985	0.0
N. West	5 285	4 758	-10.0	30 215	28 704	-5.0	67 204	67 204	0.0	18 921	18 921	0.0
Central	7 211	1 802	-75.0	23 813	14 289	-40.0	126 791	104 602	-17.5	33 332	33 332	0.0
Total	23 570	9 399	-60.1	107 283	73 188	-31.8	347 689	305 226	-12.2	115 764	81 434	-29.7

 

3.3 Overall Foodcrop Production Estimates, 1996/97

Because of irregular collection of agricultural statistics, information about food crop production levels is only approximate. Due to lack of financial and material means, the 1996/97 crop survey was not carried out. Projections are used as official statistics. In this context, the Mission used data from the 1995/96 crop survey as a base. These data were then adjusted on the basis of information gathered from various projects, NGOs and other organizations working in the south, as well as the results of the Mission’s own rapid field survey.

Area planted

The data gathered show that cultivated land varied widely from season to season. This is due to several factors, including destruction of rice crops by cyclones, poor management of irrigation systems and water users associations, and the practice of burning bushland for cultivation. The flow of migrants from the south since the 1991 famine is also contributing each season to the extension of cultivated land in the west and north of the country.

The south suffered locust invasions and maize and rice at early vegetative stages were attacked, leading to replantings, but most of these did not mature. As a result, large areas were lost this growing season.

Yields

The two cyclones Fabiola and Gretel were beneficial for short-cycle crops but had a rather negative effect on rice because of a delay in planting to June-July, which coincided with poor rainfall at the end of the cycle. This had a bad effect on second season rice yields.

In the west and centre of Madagascar, the season’s abundant rainfall and the intensification of the agricultural extension programmes led to rice yields of 10 tons per hectare in some places. In the south, where rainfall was poor, average maize yields were between 700 and 900 kg/hectare. Conditions are generally not very favourable for maize cultivation in this part and other crops such as millet and sorghum would be more appropriate. During this crop season the situation was exacerbated by locusts, which destroyed maize in several areas in the south.

Production

Total cereal output (maize, rice and wheat) is estimated at 2 704 744 tons, against 2 682 000 tons in 1996 or an increase of 0.8 percent. Cassava and sweet potato output totalled 2 834 641 against 2 871 351 tons in 1996, a drop of 1.3 percent. As shown in Table 2 below, maize and sweet potato output fell by 2.3 percent and 8.5 percent respectively, whilst rice and cassava rose by 1.1 percent and 0.3 percent. The situation by province shows a marked fall in harvests in the province of Toliary, which faced the combined effects of drought and locust attacks: 49.5 percent for maize, 17 percent for rice, 13 percent for cassava and 41 percent for sweet potatoes. The province of Fianarantsoa also suffered locust damage in the southern part which explains the relatively poor results of this season’s rice crop (0.4 percent increase).

Table 2: 1996/97 Food Production by Province (Tons)

	Maize			Rice			Cassava			Potatoes
	1996	1997	%	1996	1997	%	1996	1997	%	1996	1997	%
Tananarivo	67 960	71 800	5.7	490 940	508 200	3.5	366 835	378 900	3.3	192 100	195 950	2.0
Fianarantsoa	22 060	23 128	4.8	450 365	452 068	0.4	1 154 145	1 191 900	3.3	144 400	147 300	2.0
Toamasina	42 000	44 300	5.5	584 995	601 900	2.9	271 302	280 000	3.2	23 450	23 900	1.9
Mahajanga	13 220	13 900	5.1	538 360	553 800	2.9	121 986	122 000	0.0	11 100	11 350	2.3
Toliary	25 360	12 799	-49.5	183 545	151 849	-17.3	399 978	347 437	-13.1	122 650	72 404	-41.0
Antsiranana	9 400	9 900	5.3	248 795	256 100	2.9	57 105	57 100	-0.0	6 300	6 400	1.6
Total	180 000	175 827	-2.3	2 497 000	2 523 917	1.1	2 371 351	2 377 337	0.3	500 000	457 304	-8.5

Compared to the average for the last five years (Table 3), a marked fall in output in the province of Toliary is noted; over 44 percent for maize and 40 percent for sweet potatoes. These two crops were badly affected by locusts (maize) and poor rainfall (sweet potatoes). At national level however, apart from the 7 percent fall in sweet potato production, output of the other crops exceeded the five year average by 8 percent for maize, 2.5 percent for rice and 1 percent for cassava.

Table 3: 1996/97 Food Production Compared to the 1992-1996 Average (Tons)

4.1 The Southern Zone

This sub-zone suffered from both locusts and drought. However, crops were more affected by the drought during the months of March and June, which were particularly dry. Several replantings were done during the season in many areas, but without success. The impact of the poor rainfall, coupled with the locust invasion, seriously affected harvests of the main foodcrops.

The start of the season was promising with heavy rain in the wake of cyclones Fabiola and Gretel in January 1997. But large locust larvae infestations from February onward affected a significant part of the maize crop in the whole of the Southern zone, and also the rice crop in the sub-prefecture of Amboasary-sud. Other major crops, cassava and the sweet potato, suffered more from a lack of rain. There were large reductions in harvests in this zone, up to 90 percent in some places compared to last year’s output.

This situation led to the inter-season lean period starting early. In order to feed themselves, people sold animals (goats and cattle) to buy cereals. The most severely affected people even had to sell their household possessions. There are insufficient food supplies in the markets, most of which come from Toliary and Fianarantsoa. Food prices have already reached very high levels on the market. Roasted maize is selling at 1 500 Fmg/kg from 850 Fmg/kg at the same time in 1995/96, while cassava is selling at between 500-1 000 Fmg/kg against 250 Fmg/kg last year, both at a time of relatively low inflation in the economy

Livestock has been hard hit by the destruction of grazing land. Cows are very thin and, to avoid severe herd losses, farmers are putting an unusual number of cattle on the market for sale. But, due to a lack of buyers, prices have reached levels well below the norm. The situation is aggravated by the imposition, on sanitary grounds, of strict restrictions by the EU on meat imports from Madagascar. In addition, farmers are also worried by the emergence of some cases of anthrax.

This situation has provoked significant migratory movements among the populations. People are moving north in search of seasonal work. The food situation is critical in several areas where preliminary signs of child malnutrition can be observed.

The South-Eastern Sub-zone

This covers the entire sub-prefecture of Fort Dauphin. The crop season developed normally on the whole with good rainfall overall. However a slight rainfall deficit (in the Manambolo region) marginally affected the rice crop.

The maize and rice crops were not seriously affected by locust damage. The swarms passed late (in May) at a time when the crops had already matured. In contrast, pastures and forests were attacked by locusts. Overall, harvests were satisfactory and markets are well supplied. Nevertheless, the prices of cassava and sweet potatoes (largely coming from other regions) rose.

4.2 The Central Zone

The fall in food production caused a rise in prices on most markets. At Beraketa, rice was being sold at 1 900 Fmg/kg compared to 1 200 Fmg/kg at the same time the previous year, and at Beloha it cost 2 210 Fmg/kg. Markets are insufficiently supplied with rice, maize and sweet potatoes. With substantial loss of pastures, livestock face a particularly difficult situation. The poor harvest has compelled people to sell some of their livestock to buy food. Others have had to look for work with companies in the zone (SOMIDA) or move to the north.

Rice growing is a very important activity in this zone (70 percent of the population is involved in this crop) but the almost permanent presence of locusts could limit development for several years. About 15 percent of the population may suffer food shortages in the next few months and some children are showing signs of malnutrition.

4. 3 The Northern Zone

This sub-zone was not much affected by drought this season. Rainfall was abundant and regular during the early months of the season. However, at Betroka, rice had some difficulty in reaching maturity due to a slight deficit in rainfall in some places. Without the destruction caused by locusts, this season’s harvests would have been exceptionally good. Locust larvae appeared in the zone in January 1997 and the first swarms arrived in March when the second season crops were growing. Locust attacks affected late planted rice more severely (losses up to 45 percent) than maize which was ripening (10 percent). The effect of locust on the other crops, cassava and sweet potatoes, was minimal.

The nutritional situation is not a cause for concern and food prices are stable and at about the same level as last season for maize, cassava and the sweet potato. Rice is selling at about 1 800 Fmg/kg compared to 2 000 Fmg/kg in 1995/96. This situation is partly due to a reduced number of buyers in the zone.

Grazing lands also suffered quite serious damage following the locust invasion. At the moment, there is hardly any pastures in the zone and the cattle are beginning to lose weight. In consequence, distress sales are being made which, together with low demand, lead to low cattle prices.

The North-Western Sub-zone

This sub-zone was invaded by locusts at the same time as some of the crops were about to be harvested. The first outbreaks were reported in May and June 1997 when rice was ripening and maize maturing. The district of Andranovory and part of the sub-prefecture of Sakaraha were the most affected by locust attacks. About 10 percent of the second season rice was destroyed by locusts in this zone. The sub-prefecture of Bétioky-sud where more cassava is grown was not seriously affected.

As a result of abundant rains in January and February, a good cassava harvest is expected this season. On the other hand, maize output will fall by some 5 percent due to delays in planting. Food prices in markets compare favourably with those of last season, maize selling at between 340 and 425 Fmg/kg and cassava at 150 Fmg/kg .

Locust invasions have had little effect on livestock. However, there is a real threat to rice production next season as transplanted rice and rice for transplanting are currently being attacked by locust swarms. Farmers are very worried and reluctant to continue with their farming activities.

Reflecting an overall satisfactory outcome of the season at the national level, rice is available on many markets, particularly in northern areas and large districts. Prices indicate no major changes from those of 996. Maize on the other hand, is not available on several markets or its prices are generally higher than in the previous year by some 40 to 90 percent, particularly in the southern zone where little maize was harvested this year. Indeed, supply generally originates from Toliary and Fianarantsoa. Cassava and sweet potatoes are available in many rural markets, but their prices are also trending upward. In Beloha and Beraketa, located in the central zone, sweet potato prices are more than double the 1996 levels.

Reflecting the poor quality of pastures which were seriously affected by both locusts and poor rainfall in many southern and central zones, animals are in poor condition. As early as July, some families started selling substantial numbers of livestock in order to avoid losses, but also to meet their own subsistence needs during this difficult inter-season period.

5.1 Cereal supply and demand balance for 1997/98

Taking into account the locust outbreak which affected crops in the southern part of the country, the Mission estimates cereal production in 1997 at 2.7 million tons, about the same level as in 1996. This includes 2.52 million tons of rice (milled: 1.68 million tons), 176 000 tons of maize and 5 000 tons of wheat. Compared to 1996, only maize output shows a decrease in national production (2.3 percent). The fall in output in the south was offset by higher production in other provinces in the country.

The Mission’s interviews confirmed that most farmers sell the bulk of their output just after harvest, implying that farm level stocks tend to be negligible. Since the liberalization of the cereal market in 1988, it is difficult to obtain accurate information on commercial stocks, despite the requirement that grain traders regularly report their stock levels to the Trade Ministry. Discussions with Trade Ministry and National Statistics Bureau officers indicated that a reasonable estimate for opening cereal stock was 65 000 tons on 1 April 1997.

Based on August 1993 population census, which indicated a national population of 12.24 million and assuming a population growth rate of 2.8 percent [ An annual population growth rate of 2.8 percent is used as projected by the World Bank for 1989-2000. ] per year, the national population is projected to be 14.11 million at the end of September 1997, the middle of 1997/98 marketing year. Cereal consumption requirements are those used by the April 1997 FAO/WFP Mission: annual per caput consumption of 120 kg of rice, 10 kg of maize and 5 kg of wheat. Similarly, feed use of grains is assumed to be negligible given the nature of livestock husbandry, and non-food uses and losses are assumed to account for 8 percent for rice, 13 percent for maize, and 5 percent for wheat.

Based of the Ministry of Trade figures and interviews with private traders, the total anticipated commercial imports are estimated at 125 000 tons, consisting of 65 000 tons of rice and 60 000 tons of wheat. The balance sheet (Table 4) indicates a total food aid need of 43 000 tons, including 36 000 tons of rice and 7 000 tons of wheat.

Table 4: Madagascar: Cereal Supply/Demand Balance Sheet, 1997/98 (000 tons)
 

5.2. Food Aid

In addition, the Mission recommends intervention in the coastal zones of Toliary-Sud, Ampanihy, Beloha, Tsihombe, Amboasary and Ambovombe where the situation is deemed precarious.

The total target population has thus been estimated at 472 067 people, about 30 percent of the population of the province of Toliary affected by the locust invasion. The Mission noted that on average 30 percent of the inhabitants of these districts were in a precarious situation and should therefore be assisted as soon as possible.

It is therefore proposed to assist the families who carry out development work (5 days/month) with a daily family ration of 2.4 kg of maize and 0.3 kg of dried pulses, giving a daily calorie intake of 9405 kcal. Zones listed as DA by the SAP will receive in addition to the normal ration 0.09 kg of oil with a calorific value of 10 209.5 kcal. The choice of ration is based on experience gained during the emergency operations carried out in South Madagascar during the major drought of 1991-92 and is in line with dietary habits.

Since WFP is already operating in a large part of the affected area, the Mission recommends that its FFW activities be intensified in liaison with other partners in the region, such as "The Relance du Sud" project, and the NGO German Agro Action. The table below gives the Mission’s estimates concerning food requirements to cover FFW activities.

Table 5: Food Requirements for Intensified Food-for-work Activities
 

In addition to WFP activities, the Mission recommends sales at reduced prices to be organized in the most affected districts in the form of buffer stocks which would allow them to regulate cereal prices on local markets.

The CGDIS, which will be managing, from mid-September, 2 000 tons of rice donated by the Chinese Government, should, together with any other agencies, establish a delivery and sales plan. Nevertheless, the Mission considers that given the prices of commodities which are still very low on the local markets, it would be worthwhile waiting for the month of November before initiating this operation. The "Relance du Sud" project, for its part, has officially placed a request with the European Union for the purchase of 900 tons of maize to be sold at reduced prices in three phases of 300 tons each. In the context of the next agricultural season (1997/98), it would also be desirable for the CGDIS to study the possibility of supplying farmers with seeds.

In conclusion, the available food aid should be 971 tons for WFP, 2 000 tons for CGDIS and 900 tons for RDS, i.e. a total of 3 871 tons. However, knowing that this situation is due to the combined effects of locust invasion and drought, and that in case of the persistence of one or other of these problems, the situation could very quickly become alarming, the Mission suggests that, during October, an internal review be done in the light of the new SAP report and the nutrition and health information collected by the local technical services, the Swiss MSF, the SECALINE project and the medical NGO ASOS. Furthermore, the Mission recommends continuing the extension of the nutritional or health monitoring in the zones that have not yet been covered (the coastal zone of Amboasary, Tsihombe, Beloha, Ampanihy, Betioky, Tulear II).