The aim of scenario analysis is to project the forest economy into possible future states by the year 2020 and to determine the degree and direction of change that is, the intervention that must be adopted in forestry. This is so as to be in a position to deal effectively with anticipated changes in the rest of the economy by the year 2020.
FOSA is process for analysing the future potential of the forestry sector to contribute to the well being of African citizens through its economic, social and environmental functions. FOSA will analyse the status, trends and driving forces shaping African forestry; provide a region-wide vision of the sector to the year 2020; and identify policies, programme and investment options that will help move the sector in desirable directions.
The Present State of the Nigerian Economy in Year 2000
The country is experiencing a new democratic process.
Gross domestic products is growing only minimally
The economy is still largely dependent on petroleum with the non oil sectors contributing only minimally to GDP
The economy is import dependent
Unemployment rate is high
The economy is modern with a fairly high level of literacy
Infrastructures are modern but serious problems are still being experienced in power (electricity) generation with a crippling effect on industrial production;
Population is large and investment is not high enough to absorb the teeming population into gainful employment.
Poverty at the rural levels is high and wages are low at the urban centres.
The continuous depreciation of the Naira presents grave problems for the economy.
The inflation rate is still high.
Labour unrest is a strong trend.
Social unrest is still a problem for the new democracy due to long period of neglect of minority groups.
The wealth of the country is mainly from the South-South and the North is very poverty stricken but with a great potential for agriculture.
The land and environment is very highly devastated by climate??, farming, fires, erosion and population pressures.
Deforestation is a heavy trend.
Corruption is still a bane of economic development and progress.
High crime rate and general insecurity to life and property/investment still poses grave problems.
Scenario 1: Business As Usual by 2020
The economy continues as in the past. No improvement in the investment climate. Unemployment rate continues to rise, the Naira continues to depreciate against the major International currencies, labour unrest and social dis-equilibrium allowed to thrive and corruption continues to flourish. Deforestation continues as observed.
Required Intervention by the Forestry Sector
Strong Signals Public Awareness Campaign
Conservation Drive
Aggressive National Tree Planting Campaign
Private Sector Participation
Agro-forestry
Weak Signals
National Forestry Law
Participatory Approach
NGOs
Scenario 2: Social Conflict Resolution and Poverty Alleviation
The economy is still largely driven by the public sector and is petroleum dependent. The value of the Naira continues to depreciate with attendant problems of inflation and high demand for wood and wood products. Drought problems persist in the North with erosion and deforestation problems in the South. Energy problems persist generally.
Government pays decent wages to workers.
Resolves ethnic, religious, and other social crises through:
Social justice
Investment in the agriculture to alleviate poverty in the North
Investment in road and infrastructure in the Niger Delta
Religious tolerance
Investment in industries for greater job opportunities
Population and birth control
Investment in Natural Resources Development
Investment in Health and Education
Investment in electricity and communication
Intervention by Forestry
Strong signals
Research and development in conservation, natural resources and sustainable management
Afforestation Drive
for industrial wood production in the South
fuel wood production in the North
Reforestation
Shelter belts and village woodlots for environmental protection against drought and desertification.
Green belts to protect water sheds and to prevent erosion of land especially in the South East
Agro-forestry drives to mitigate land use shift from Forestry to Agricultural crop cultivation.
Extension and Publicity
Training of Forestry personnel in Extension Education
Public awareness campaign
Community participation in Forest Management
Seminars and Workshops
Inter-sectoral Dialogue on Land use and Land use Planning
Conferences and Lectures
Private Forestry
Incentives for afforestation
Promotion of efficient wood utilisation and alternative energy campaign
Production of sawdust briquettes.
Weak Signals
Funding
Local funding
NGOs
Private Forestry
Community participation
Scenario 3: Complete Diversification of the Economy by 2020
The country adopts a trade liberalisation policy
Carries out a vigorous export drive
The export processing zones are fully operational
Foreign capital and investment are attracted to the country
Quality control instituted in domestic manufacturing
Price stability; The Naira appreciates in value and stabilises
Foreign debt burden minimised and external reserves appreciates
Economy less import dependent
Government creates conducive environment for foreign and private sector investments in the country.
Electricity generation and telecommunication deregulated.
Increase investment in Health and Education
Investment in rural infrastructure and rural employment
Schools and hospitals established at Local Government Levels
Investment in rural cottage industries
Investment in agricultural crop processing and storage
Investment in food processing industries
Increased productivity and decent wages
Investment in local technology development
Crime wave reduced and level of insecurity minimised
Kerosene and domestic fuel prices stabilize
A measure of development is attained in the macro-economy but deforestation is still a problem.
Strategy for Intervention by the Forestry Sector
Heavy signals
Production and promotion of non wood forestry products
Promotion of participatory approach in forestry
Research in non wood processing and marketing
Forest resources management and conservation
Afforestation for industrial wood; for export; for fuel wood
Development of National parks for game, recreation and tourism
Agro-forestry
Public awareness campaign
National Forestry Law and Enforcement of forestry policy
Sectoral dialogue on Land use and Land use planning
Domestication and multiplication of non wood forestry products
Wood waste reduction and establishment of pilot small diameter log mills for demonstration purposes.
Weak Signals
Community participation
NGOs
CBOs
Tourism
Export
forest villages
community wood lots
of non wood forest products
Scenario 4: Complete Privatisation by 2020
Divest all government owned companies and investments
Adopt a trade liberalisation policy
Private sector led economy
Effective taxation policy
Investment in Health care and Education
Forest industries expand with attendant deforestation
Increasing kerosene and domestic fuel prices
High inflation rate
Labour and industrial unrest
Weak technological base and decline in the level of infrastructure
Strategy for Intervention by the Forestry Sector
Strong signals
Divest forest plantations
Evolve a commensurate pricing policy for forest products
Promote afforestation and private ownership
Afforestation for export market e.g. Teak plantations
Conservation education
Research and Training
Weak Signals
Private sector investment and funding
NGOs
Foreign capital
Scenario 5: Full Fledged Developed Nigerian Economy by 2020
The Nigerian economy is fully developed by 2020 as a result of:
A well planned economy
Appropriate monetary and fiscal policies
Discovery of a mechanism for economic conflict management and resolution
Introduction and enforcement of a population and birth control policy
Investment in renewable natural resources development and management
Investment in Health care, Housing and Education
Investment in infrastructure especially in the Niger Delta
Investment in agricultural storage and food processing
Development of rural cottage industries
Iron and Steel Industries fully operational with functional machine tools and parts factories
Deregulation of electricity supply
Deregulation of telecommunication industry
Establishment of the rule of law and social justice
Investment in crime detection and law enforcement
Evolution of a national ideology
Fight against corruption and indiscipline
Minimise crime and insecurity to life and property
Investment in industry and mass mobilization for employment and productivity
creating conducive environment for private sector investment
provision of decent wages
enhancement of labour productivity
Investment in research and development and facilitation of local innovations and technologies
Modernisation of agriculture
improve seeds
intensive cultivation
mechanisation
enhanced farm inputs
fertiliser
insecticides, pesticides etc.
Irrigation
Introduction of fully dynamic wages and pricing policy
Adoption of an aggressive export drive with fully operational export processing zones and quality control
External debt burden minimised, import dependence minimised and external reserves maximised.
Modernisation of the Public Service especially the Civil Service
revival of professionalism and ethics
introduction of national reorientation
establishment of effective planning outfits and culture at National, State and Local
Government Levels
to manage the activities of the Private Sector
to resolve conflicts arising from policy implementation
The economy is developed by 2020 and the level of enlightenment is high. Religious, ethnic, labour and other social unrest including crime rate are minimised. The economy is fully deregulated and diversified. There is a supportive technological base. The level of literacy is high and there are supportive infrastructure in terms of good roads, water, electricity, housing and hospitals. Oil is de-emphasised and the demand for renewable natural resources including wood and non-wood forest products is on the increase. Though the standard of living is high, the problems associated with climate and industry are of serious concerns. In this respect, drought continues to pose grave problems in the North while erosion is serious in the South especially the South East. Industrial emissions from factories also pose grave problems. There is generally land hunger.
Strategy for Intervention by the Forestry Sector
Strong signals
Aggressive afforestation and reforestation
Development of non wood forest products
Conservation for biodiversity
Promotion of Private Forestry
incentives
progressive land tenure policies
introduction of a commensurate pricing policy
private ownership of forest produce
Agro-forestry
introduction of forest villages
Research and Development
Publicity and enlightenment campaign
Development of industrial plantations
Sectoral dialogue
Wildlife Husbandry
Regional/International cooperation and collaboration
Forestry Education and training
Data collection and Forestry Planning
Weak Signals
Participatory approach
Forestry Trust Fund
Private Forestry
Global warming and climate change
Small diameter log mills
Integrated Land use planning
National Forestry Legislation
NGOs