TRENDS IN SHEEP AND GOAT PRODUCTION OVER THE PAST 20 YEARS

C. E. Terrili

INTRODUCTION

Sheep and goat industries are healthy and growing in the world but we cannot be satisfied that all is well. Total meat production per capita seems on the verge of a continued decline. Food production is barely keeping up with population growth. Per capita cereal production is levelling off and will likely decline until farm prices increase drastically. Then less and less meat will be produced from grain and less meat will be consumed at higher cost. Can sheep and goats, the most efficient convertors of low quality feed materials to high quality food, increase in numbers, productivity and efficiency to provide an adequate supply of low cost meat for everyone in the world ? Are research and development efforts in the past 25 years and at present sufficient to lead to a rapid upward trend in numbers, productivity and efficiency of sheep and goats ? Data from FAO since 1961 have been examined for answers to the above questions (FAO Production Yearbook, V.30, 1976; V.35, 1981; V.36, 1982).

SHEEP AND GOAT NUMBERS

Worldwide upward trends in sheep and goat numbers are shown in Table 1 but progress is at a rate of only about one percent per year. The hopeful sign is that the rate of increase is higher in the late 70's than earlier. Sheep and goat numbers have increased from 1 billion sheep and 0.4billion goats to 1.1billion sheep and 0.5billion goats in about 20 years. Further increases are not only likely but probable. Generally over the world there are untapped forage resources either natural or by-products and wastes which could support much larger populations of sheep and goats. This is especially true of most developed and of some developing countries. These resources are fully used only in desert areas and probably in the USSR and in China. I have estimated that in the United States there are 300 million acres of practically unused potential pasture land which would support about one sheep to the acre as it is and several per acre if improved.

The rate of increase in numbers could be much greater. In the United States over the last century when sheep numbers have increased the rate has been about 5 percent per year and goat numbers have increased as rapidly as 10 percent per year. A slow steady increase in numbers of animals, through more producers using more resources is preferable to a more rapid but temporary increase. Three to five percent per year would not seem too rapid providing each new producer starts with a small number. Numbers have increased more rapidly in developing than in developed countries although developed countries are now showing increases. The decline in North America is entirely due to predator losses which have increased due to Government restrictions on control. Africa and Asia have shown larger and more consistent increases in the last 20 years than the remainder of the world. More rapid increases in numbers of sheep and goats are feasible and probably desirable over most of the world.

B.A.R.C.W., Beltsville, Maryland 20705, USA.

MEAT PRODUCTION

Meat is the most important product of farm animals and is probably essential for human well being and productivity as well as for enjoyment of life. Thus meat production of sheep and goats is more important than their numbers. Trends for all meat production as well as for sheep and goats are given in Table 2. Meat production from all species has generally increased rapidly over the last 20 years. Exceptions for sheep and goats due to predator losses in North America, economics of wool in South America and possibly competition with cattle in the Soviet Union all may be temporary. In South America production of wool seems to be competing with meat production from sheep so that meat production may not increase until it is more important economically than wool. Somewhat the same situation may occur in the Soviet Union where priority seems to be given to cattle for meat production and to sheep for wool and pelt production. Increases are somewhat more rapid in developing than in developed countries although the level of production and consumption are far lower in the developing than in developed countries. People in developed countries produce and consume far more meat than in the remainder of the world. This is not just a result of wealth but it was true also with the first settlers, most of whom were livestock farmers.

Meat from all species, however, has probably reached its peak in the rate of production. The decline which is evident this year will probably be more rapid in the future as a-result of the economic downward pressure on beef production because of rising production costs and declining prices. Grain and soybeans are generally available for less than the real cost of production. Sooner or later their farm price will probably increase and then less grain and soybeans will be used to produce beef, pork, milk, poultry and farm fish. In the future rising prices will probably not result in increased production because of high capital costs and high risk of expansion. Sheep and goats with their very low needs for capital input, grain and concentrates would be able to increase under these conditions and may slow the decline in total high quality food available.

Sheep and goats, unlike all species, are producing meat at an increasing rate but far below their potential. Again increases are more rapid in developing countries. Meat production does tend to decline as numbers increase, as more replacement animals mean fewer slaughter animals. But genetic improvement in weight of meat produced per female kept, improvement of forage resources and increases in land surfaces utilized could result in providing almost unbelievable increases in meat marketed from sheep and goats into the almost indefinite future. The challenge we face is how do we bring it all about without producing surpluses and without competing with other food production. The opportunity is real and great.

Trends in per capita meat production (all) are given in Table 3 and are not as favourable as for numbers or for total meat production. In fact recent rates of increase were often negative although all were positive for the world and for developing countries. Gains in per capita production in developing countries were generally higher than for the remainder of the world although average per capita production was much lower in developing countries except for goats.

Meat Production Efficiency

Average meat produced per head of sheep and goats is probably the best measure of efficiency that can be obtained from world statistics for these species. The number of sheep maintained provides an estimate of biological costs, and weight of meat produced and marketed gives an estimate of biological returns. Upward trends indicate increased net returns to producers. An upward trend in meat produced per head along with an increase in numbers indicates that the greater amount of meat produced is not due to liquidation of numbers but rather that increased replacements have been more than offset by increased meat production. Further, an upward trend in both numbers and meat production per head indicates that the greater numbers are not leading to over-grazing. Over-grazing would be revealed by decreased production per head over the long-term. High emphasis on wool production may lead to a reduction in average meat produced per head as both ewes and wethers that would otherwise be sent to slaughter may be kept for wool production.

Average meat produced per head of sheep world-wide is increasing but at only about 1/3 percent per year while for goats the rate of increase is more than twice as fast (Table 4). Both species were increasing more rapidly in the late 70's than earlier. Use of high prolificacy breeds, crossbreeding, breeding more than once per year and control of reproduction may all have contributed to the increase. Much of the gain may have resulted from research supported by FAO and other international agencies. Likely very little of the gain was due to selection. Far greater gain is possible from selection which would be additive rather than an alternative to other methods. The upward trends in Asia, Africa and developing countries are encouraging (Table 4). The higher efficiency in developed countries is obvious. Trends in countries with high efficiency of sheep meat production, (Figure 1) are also encouraging. These show that efficiency can be increased to far higher levels than are now common in many countries. Furthermore continued increases in countries such as Iceland, Albania, France, Ireland and Greece show that upward trends can be sustained for long periods.

Trends in efficiency of goat meat production (Table 4) indicate that upwards trends may be more definite both in developed and developing countries than with sheep. The individual countries with high efficiency (Figure 2) indicate with goats that some developing countries rank higher than developed countries as seven of the top countries had developing market economies. The general upward trend was most encouraging but it could be much more rapid.

FIBRE PRODUCTION

Wool Production

Wool production is increasing along with sheep numbers although increases are generally in Centrally Planned Market Economies and in developing countries (Table 5). Wool clothing is almost essential in the USSR while wool products are exported from China probably to obtain hard currency. Wool production is declining however on a world basis as the population is increasing more rapidly than wool production. The population is generally increasing more rapidly in the tropics where demand for wool is low. In the temperate zone where there is good demand for wool the farm price has not been sufficiently high to stimulate increased production.

Mohair Production

Trends in mohair production are not available from FAO statistics as it is a very minor textile fibre. Van Der Westhuysen (1982) has provided some information for 1980 (Table 6). Production declined from the mid 1960's to the mid 1970's because of the low world price. Prices have been relatively high since and production is increasing. Predator losses in the United States have prevented much increase there. The price seems to have stabilized at a profitable level. The future of mohair use as a speciality fibre seems good as it produces a very high quality, attractive textile product. Even in biblical times it was known as a high quality fibre used to make curtains for the Tabernacle. No doubt that reputation will persist.

REFERENCES

Van der Westhuysen, 0. M. 1982. Proc. 3rd Int. Conf. on Goat Prod, and Disease pp 264–267.

TABLE 1. Trends in numbers of sheep and goats

M.E. = market economy

TABLE 2. Trends in meat production

TABLE 3. Trends in meat produced per head of human population (kg)

TABLE 4. Trends in meat per head from sheep and goats

TABLE 5. Trends in scoured wool production from sheep in world

TABLE 6. Production of mohair in 1980

Source: Van Der Westhuysen (1982)

Fig 1. COUNTRIES HIGH IN EFFICIENCY OF SHEEP MEAT PRODUCTION

Fig 2: COUNTRIES HIGH IN EFFICIENCY OF GOAT MEAT PRODUCTION.