10. Conclusions
Foresight plays an important role in identifying emerging food safety challenges and opportunities that will continue to arise as the global context evolves with ongoing transformation of the agrifood systems.
As transformation of the way we produce, distribute and consume food is underway, there is need for effective and proactive food safety management that keeps pace with the changing global context, to ensure food safety-based vigilance throughout the agrifood systems. Therefore, the application of foresight in food safety has never been more pertinent. Foresight can be used to shed light on emerging areas that have not received adequate attention, for instance, by highlighting the impacts of climate change on food safety (FAO, 2020), a topic not as well-known as other effects of climate change. As science evolves, foresight will enable relevant food safety authorities to stay abreast of the latest advancements. At the same time, it is important for risk assessment processes to keep pace with scientific progress in order to continue to guide the development of relevant and reliable food safety policies, including for emerging issues such as new food sources. With the rapid evolution of technological innovations, foresight provides the opportunity to adequately evaluate the benefits and risks associated with them, thereby allowing the development of appropriate adoption and implementation strategies. An overview of some of emerging areas of interest, as identified through the FAO food safety foresight programme, has been provided in the various chapters in this report.
Amid intensification of food production, there is increased attention to the issues of sustainability and resource depletion, which are driving the popularity of the concept of circular economy. While implementation of circular economy within agrifood systems can bring with it many benefits – maximizing the value of natural resources, reducing food waste, regenerating natural systems, and more – it can also raise the potential risk of introducing (or re-introducing) and concentrating food safety hazards within the system, an area that is explored in this report through the brief on recycling of plastics.
Rising awareness about the adverse environmental impacts of food production, climate change effects, and population growth are not only driving innovations that will shape our future agrifood landscape, but are also influencing consumer preferences and the resulting dietary shifts. New food sources (such as insects, seaweeds, and so on) and new food production systems (e.g. for cell-based food production), are gaining global interest among consumers for meeting both human and planetary health goals. Development of regulatory safeguards needed to provide appropriate oversight call for keeping pace with this fast-expanding food sector of new food sources and food production systems. Understanding the unique food safety implications that this area can bring will help to establish the necessary guidelines and standards needed to fully realize the potential of this sector.
The role of microbiome structures and dynamics across the agrifood systems on the impacts on human and animal health is increasingly being understood. There is recent literature that offer new insights into the associations between microbiomes and a range of different human diseases as well as their possible implications for modulating our exposure to different chemical hazards. Our growing understanding of the role of microbiomes for our health also calls for better integration of this component into food safety risk assessment processes. In addition, as microbiome assessment lies at the intersection of both biological and chemical risk assessments, it also provides opportunities to collaborate among these two disciplines.
Technological innovations, such as Blockchain, and Artificial Intelligence, among others, can be transformative for food safety, and in turn for agrifood systems. To facilitate this, basic infrastructure, regulatory framework and enforcement procedures, better data protection and governance need to be put in place. Moreover, such advancements also need to be brought to areas where they are needed the most. With inequality on the rise globally, putting both social and economic development in jeopardy, access and usage gaps with regards to scientific advances and technological innovations can be major stumbling blocks to an equitable distribution of science and innovation applications.
Foresight will enable emerging issues to be looked at through a food systems lens by encouraging a holistic way of evaluating both opportunities and challenges that can have varying impacts on food safety, and through it on agrifood systems.
The global community increasingly agrees that food systems thinking and the importance of One Health demand a holistic approach to addressing emerging challenges to the agrifood systems, rather than through siloed responses. In addition, the changing global contexts of the agrifood systems are highlighting the importance of acknowledging the growing interconnectedness, complexity and multidimensionality of food safety. Foresight provides an avenue to explore emerging opportunities and challenges in their totality, including all variables influencing them, thereby allowing food safety authorities to develop a multisectoral view of the changing dynamics within and for food safety. This is in line with the increased recognition of the One Health approach (Joint Tripartite [FAO, OIE, WHO] and UNEP Statement, 2021), that affirms the inextricable linkages between the health of human, animal and ecosystems and aims to address complex multidisciplinary issues to improve public health and livelihoods, safeguard natural resources and transform agrifood systems. In addition, efficient science-policy interfaces support forward-looking approaches that are needed to create effective multi-stakeholder dialogues on the benefits and trade-offs associated with pursuing specific strategies. Foresight can help bridge science and policy by utilizing the former to inform a range of food chain-related decisions that enhance the latter.
FAO is well-placed to collect, analyse, and disseminate information on various emerging issues from numerous fronts, and it can also provide support to countries in implementing their own foresight activities.
FAO’s Corporate Strategic Foresight Exercise (CSFE) was instrumental in providing a set of 18 key current and emerging interconnected socioeconomic and environmental drivers that are impacting agrifood systems and in turn are affected by the systems. These insights from CSFE were considered in the formulation of the Strategic Framework of FAO, as it was developed in the context of recent international developments, emerging global and national trends, and major challenges in the food and agriculture sectors (FAO, 2021a). FAO’s Strategic Framework supports and enables the 2030 Agenda through the transformation to MORE efficient, inclusive, resilient and sustainable agrifood systems for better production, better nutrition, a better environment, and a better life, leaving no one behind. Science, technology and innovation have been highlighted as critical elements for this transformation.
The importance of proactive identification, through foresight approaches, of new and emerging issues with implications for transformation of agrifood systems, has been underscored in the outline of the new FAO Science and Innovation Strategy (FAO, 2021b). Since food safety plays an integral role in transformation of agrifood systems, FAO's Strategic Priorities for Food Safety (currently under development) highlights the importance of foresight in food safety decision-making by facilitating better identification of emerging issues that may pose potential food safety risks as well as those that may bring opportunities. Therefore, the importance of foresight has been stressed to not only help fill in knowledge gaps but also promote future policies for the adoption of emerging innovations and foster preparedness to address future challenges in the agrifood systems.
Limited resources, user capabilities, technical skills, and financial support are among the factors that can affect the capacity of countries to engage in foresight exercises. In order to cultivate this capacity, significant investments in terms of training and development of institutional capabilities will be needed, together with encouraging a shift in mindsets – from reactive to anticipatory – at various tiers of public administration. FAO’s global perspectives on emerging issues in food and agriculture coupled with extensive cross-border reach and the capacity to deliver global public goods make it uniquely placed to serve as a neutral platform for the collection, analysis and dissemination of information that is independent and trusted. Therefore, results from foresight exercises, carried out by the Organization at a global level, can be distributed to a wide audience, including countries with limited access to the know-how and capacities to carry out foresight exercises of their own. Moreover, effective foresight approaches rely on information gathered from a wide range of sources. FAO can not only draw from expertise across the full agrifood spectrum within the Organization, but also through cooperation with a broad network of external partners – academic and research institutions, national authorities, and the private sector – who provide valuable additional insights into various aspects of the food chain.
In conclusion, foresight can help us understand how new trends and drivers, either within or outside the agrifood systems can affect the systems in general, and food safety in particular. However, it is important to acknowledge that foresight does not predict the future, but can allow us to be better placed to navigate both opportunities and challenges, enabling resilience and agility, and ultimately enhancing strategic preparedness through long-term thinking