Appendixes

Mahbubul Alam¹

Social and economic background: driving forces for change

Over the past several years, the Asia–Pacific region has experienced rapid and dramatic political and socio-economic change. The change is so dynamic in nature that it is difficult to anticipate the future outlook of any sector. Economic growth in the region has been accompanied by enormous social and political transformations. Dramatic changes are occurring in the way people work, where they live, what they spend their money on and countless other aspects of life. The perspectives of the people living in Asia and the Pacific toward forests and forestry are evolving in concert with socio-economic changes, emerging environmental perceptions and institutional attitudes. The most important drivers of demand for forest products are population and economic growth. With the pace of population increase, the forests of this region will face tremendous pressure. The dependency of people on forest goods and services will certainly increase. As a result, there will be heavy exploitation of forests and other natural resources. In short, the factors expected to have the greatest impact on the forest sector over the next 20 years include:

• The varying pace of political and institutional changes.
• Frequent political conflicts and wars.
• Demographic changes.
• High debt burden.
• Declining development assistance.
• Persistent poverty and food insecurity.

In the absence of dramatic changes, the forestry situation in the region will be marked by continued high losses of forest cover, deterioration in the state of the environment, depletion of non-wood forest products and a significant decline in productivity.

Outlook for forest use and consumption: a setting for the future

Tree and forest resources

• The trend of natural forest decline and conservation will continue in this region, but protected areas will be increased because of growing consensus on biodiversity and ecosystem conservation.
• Monoculture will also increase. Natural forests will be converted in many areas owing to their low productivity. Many barren and degraded lands will be used for plantations.
• Trees outside forests will be increasingly recognized as an important element in the wood supply equation.
• The roles of homestead forests, agroforestry and similar land use will expand.

Industrial wood products

• Demand for all industrial forest products in the region will increase significantly owing to growing populations and strong economic growth.
• Commodities like sawnwood and plywood will become scarcer in this region. As a result, there will be an increase in the importation of these commodities.

Non-wood forest products

• Non-wood forest product (NWFP) use will certainly expand although the importance of some subsistence NWFPs will likely decline as alternative products and sources of income emerge. Growing prosperity may reduce the number of people whose livelihoods depend on NWFPs.
• Deforestation of natural forests and their conversion to monoculture will reduce the diversity of NWFPs in many countries. Furthermore, a variety of factors may cause the disintegration of traditional systems that use NWFPs, including the settlement of migrants in forest areas and encroachment of forest lands.
• Some NWFPs will be commercialized and the trend will continue resulting in the large-scale exploitation of natural forests. Many high potential NWFPs may be domesticated as a result of growing concern among the general public.

Ecotourism

With rising prosperity, the desire for nature experiences among middle class people will offer many opportunities for ecotourism development, but tapping this market will require sound preparation and competitive strategies.

Energy

Wood energy has the potential to partially enter the economic mainstream. With increasing population, the demand for woodfuels will also continue to grow. There will still be far more wood available for fuel than is needed; sustainable production from farmlands alone is expected to meet a major part of total needs. Industrial use of residues at processing plants is more likely to prove profitable than establishing wood-energy plantations for power generation or processing of liquid fuels from wood.

Outlook for forest management over the next 20 years

Change in traditional management

There will be a significant change in the management of forest resources in countries where high population is a major cause of forest depletion and degradation. The participation of local people in forest management in the name of community forestry or participatory forestry will increase in these countries. Forest destroyers will transform into forest protectors because of their participation in decision-making practices.

The narrowing gap in management between developing and developed nations

Developed countries have made significant contributions to science and technology. On the other hand, developing countries lack sufficient financial, human and technical capacity to progress in this context. Therefore, there has been a major gap between developed and developing countries. However, the gap is not widening because developed countries are supporting improvements in science and technology in developing countries. Therefore, developing countries will have many opportunities in the future to advance their scientific and technological capacity (especially information and communication technologies, for example, the use of GIS for mapping and monitoring of forest resources).

Development of cutting-edge technologies

Some existing technologies, for example tree improvement, clonal propagation and integrated pest management have made significant impact on production and protection in the forestry sector. However, many cutting-edge technologies are also likely to be developed in the future that will make significant economic, environmental and social impact in Asia and the Pacific.

Key problems with no solutions

The drastic increase of population in the region is a key problem that is actually linked to most of the problems in the forestry sector. The high dependency of large populations on natural resources is directly leading to their degradation. Deforestation in this region is directly related to population increase, which has no apparent solution, and also there is little chance of improving the situation in the near future.

The greatest scope for potential gains

Economic gain

Poverty has been a major challenge for forest conservation and management. In the context of developing countries, the active and sustainable management of forest resources for poverty alleviation has the greatest scope for potential gain over the next few decades.

Research and development on fruit and timber tree species will increase. There are many value-adding cottage industries that could be based on fruit trees and it is obvious that developing countries will require more timber supply.

Environmental gain

The greatest scope for potential gains in the forestry sector is to use genetic diversity to minimize environmental effects in the future. These include a genetic base for tree adaptation, restructuring plantation practices, minimizing fragmentation in natural forests and exploring the possibility to increase heat resistance through genetic engineering.

Another potential is research, development and application of technological methods for determining the carbon storage capacity of primary and ecologically mature secondary forests.

Policy options for the future: challenges and opportunities

• Existing national forest policies need to be updated to realize the full potential of the forestry sector and its contribution to sustainable national development. The updated policy needs to take into account all relevant issues including medium- and long-term strategies such as planning, production, utilization and marketing.
• The ecosystem approach to managing natural forests provides the optimum level of goods and services for the maximum number of people. Furthermore, there is a scope for wider application of the ecosystem approach in the management of natural forests that produce very high quality wood for niche markets.
• One of the most important forest policy goals should be to improve forest management on a sustained basis. For the sustainable use of forest resources, the strategy to adopt is to harness the potential productivity of forests, simultaneously maximizing net yield from afforested lands.
• As a matter of policy, there is a need to consider protecting and conserving ecologically representative samples of old-growth forests across the landscape in order to ensure that late-successional populations and species continue to survive and evolve.
• Despite its very rich biological resources, the region is not capturing the full commercial potential for forest-based opportunities from bioprospecting and product development; greater efforts are needed if the region hopes to benefit commercially from these resources.

¹ Receiver of a Japanese Government scholarship (Monbukagakusho) for an M.Sc. leading to a Ph.D. study in Japan. Forest Management Laboratory, Faculty of Agriculture, Kochi University, B 200 Monobe, Nankoku-shi, Kochi 7838502, Japan. Phone: 0081 88 863 7732. E-mail: [email protected]

Pabitra Jha¹

Nepal is one of the least developed countries in the world. With an estimated annual per capita income of US$210, open natural resources such as land and forests are the main sources of livelihood for a large proportion of the population. Poverty is intimately related to environmental degradation and loss of biodiversity. Worldwide, the poor do not have access to artificial resources. They depend on their own direct exploitation of natural resources. Poor people have no choice but to engage in unsustainable uses of natural resources and Nepal is no exception. About 44 percent of people in rural areas and 23 percent in urban areas live below the national poverty line. Their livelihoods are closely associated with forest resources. Apart from poverty and a 2.3 percent annual population growth, political pressure is also a major factor behind widespread forest depletion. The forests of Nepal come under threat each time the country witnesses general elections.

Twenty years ago, 38 percent of Nepal was forest. Now only 29 percent of the 147 181 km² of land area is covered by forest, far below the minimum requirement of 40 percent, essential for a healthy environment. Illicit logging and encroachment are mainly responsible for this loss. Forests play a vital role in maintaining ecological balance as well as economic development. Moreover, the forest environment is a major source of energy, animal fodder and timber; forest catchment areas are the main sources of water used in hydro-electric power generation, irrigation and domestic consumption. However, Nepal's forestry sector is changing over time. Despite being rich in biological diversity and natural splendours, Nepal faces some of the most serious conservation threats besetting any nation in the world today. Due to the country's fragile geological structure, soil erosion and landslides are common phenomena. In the early 1950s, pristine lowland forests were cleared for agriculture and infrastructure development. The eradication of malaria in the 1960s witnessed a massive influx of hill people to the terai (plains). Rapidly growing populations with their subsistence socio-economic conditions, especially in fringe areas, exerted tremendous biotic pressure in the remaining forests. Eventually, the Forest Act, 1993 and Forest Regulation, 1995 came into force and put more emphasis on people's rights over the available resources.

While we compare the past, a few years ago people used to cut trees for direct domestic consumption. Now, people are aware about forest conservation. Although the country is classified as one of the poorest in the world there are several examples of good conservation practices. The concept of collective action as a community forest management programme emerged in 1978. Nepal also embarked upon a modern era of wildlife conservation with the enactment of the National Parks and Wildlife Conservation Act, 1973. Altogether, nine national parks, three wildlife reserves, three conservation areas and one hunting reserve including nine buffer zones around national parks covering a total of 28 585.67 km² (19.42 percent of the country's total land) have been established. Degraded forest has gradually been improved through a network of community forest user groups. Many hill communities have successfully restored degraded forest areas and have instituted regulatory mechanisms for harvesting forest products. Community group formation has now become a standard practice in development projects for ensuring greater beneficiary participation, transparency and accountability. However, poor identification of users, rapid handovers and lack of livelihood knowledge mean sustainable forest management, governance and pro-poor livelihoods are major issues within community forestry programmes. Forest-based enterprise development, value addition, market facilities, forest certification, social inclusion and good governance are envisioned to enhance the forestry sector. The Nepalese Government launched the tenth Five Year Plan (2002–2007), developed in conjunction with the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP). The plan's objective is poverty reduction through the expansion of economic opportunities and employment based on the efficient use of available resources. Strategies include a broad-based process of economic growth, expansion of social services and infrastructure empowerment and good governance. It further identifies areas for special attention such as the sustainable management of natural resources and biodiversity conservation.

Likewise, people have become more conscious from an economic point of view. They have started to think about value addition. For example, in the past people used fresh wood for infrastructure construction; now they have started to use plywood and other processed wood material. Similarly, they have started to promote non-wood forest product marketing, timber value addition and forest resource-based entrepreneurship development. In the same way, people have started to raise their voices about opportunity costs for the conservation of inaccessible forest at the international level. In future, there will be alternatives to derive indirect benefits such as promotion of ecotourism, carbon trade and forest-based enterprise development. In due course, if the political situation stabilizes, consumption aspects will be emphasized rather than conservation alone. While we think about social aspects, all ethnic minority groups, the poor, women and dalit ("untouchables") will participate equally in each sector. The vital contribution of women to the management of biological resources and to economic production generally has been misunderstood, ignored or underestimated till now. Rural women in Nepal are often the most knowledgeable sources about the patterns and users of local biodiversity. Therefore, the role of women in biodiversity and natural resource management will be fully recognized and given due consideration; their participation in decision-making will be sought.

The overall scenarios for economic, demographic, political and social aspects after 2020 based on the present situation will turn a new page. At present, agrarian society is dominant in Nepal. The population is increasing as the rate of 2.3 percent per annum (the trend was decreasing in the last few years). Thus, it will increase comparatively; however, the rate of increment will be minimized due to increased awareness about family planning and the concept of small and happy families. So, if society remains agrarian there will be pressure on available natural resources. Otherwise, there will be an industrial society and less pressure on available resources. Most resources will be under the control of the state through the innovative community-based approach. The number of transferred community forests will grow and they will be more aware about sustainable forest management. Their capacity will be enhanced technically along with their indigenous knowledge. Such community-based institutions will strengthen their economic capacity through direct and indirect consumption of available resources. In such a situation, there could be more employment opportunities in each institution for forest technicians. Thus, the working sphere of forest technicians would be enlarged rather than operations by INGOs and NGOs only. On the other hand, local people's capacity could be further enhanced and they would not require technicians to manage their resources. So, there would be fewer employment opportunities for technical staff in comparison to other sectors. Politically, all parties will be part of the same forum and representation of all castes, religions and status will be found in every sector. This means there will be no bias with respect to caste, religion and status.

In conclusion, we can say that an industrial society will be achieved by 2020 with respect to natural resource-based entrepreneurship development. It will contribute more employment opportunities and income generation sources as well as capital creation at the local level. Eventually, national economic conditions will be strengthened. Forest dependency will decline through alternative livelihood measures. Likewise, agricultural dependency will also decline to some extent through commercialization.

Overall there will be movement towards an industrial society. However, the political situation and other disturbances will be constantly pressing issues. Nepal wishes to have an environmentally sound, economically viable and socially acceptable situation within the forestry sector. If the present scenario moves forward positively, we will have a bright future in forest development.

Iqbal Lutfi¹

Forest management includes a range of human interventions that affect forest ecosystems. They include policies for cutting trees for timber, planting and replanting of various species, cutting roads and pathways through forests and techniques for preventing or controlling outbreaks of fire.

In developed countries, the environmental movement has increased public awareness of natural resource policy, including forest management. As a direct result, primary concerns regarding forest management have shifted from the extraction of wood to other forest resources including wildlife, watersheds, wilderness and recreational services. This shift in public values has also caused much of the general public to mistrust resource management professionals.

Sustainable forest management (SFM) is the management of forests according to the principles of sustainable development. It is also the current culmination in a progression of basic forest management concepts preceded by sustainable forestry and sustainable yield forestry. SFM is the term currently used to describe approaches to forest management that set very broad social, economic and environmental goals. A number of forestry institutions now practise various forms of SFM and a broad range of methods and tools are available that have been tested over time.

The Forest Principles adopted at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 captured the general international understanding of SFM at that time. Sets of criteria and indicators have since been developed to evaluate the achievement of SFM at both the country and management unit level. These were all attempts to codify and provide for independent assessment of the degree to which the broader objectives of SFM are being achieved in practice.

Definition

A definition of the present day understanding of SFM was developed by the Ministerial Conference on the Protection of Forests in Europe (MCPFE) and has since been adopted by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). It defines SFM as:

The stewardship and use of forests and forest lands in a way, and at a rate, that maintains their biodiversity, productivity, regeneration capacity, vitality and their potential to fulfill, now and in the future, relevant ecological, economic and social functions, at local, national, and global levels, and that does not cause damage to other ecosystems.

In simpler terms, the concept can be described as the attainment of balance — balance between society's increasing demands for forest products and benefits and the preservation of forest health and diversity. This balance is critical to the survival of forests and to the prosperity of forest-dependent communities.

For forest managers, sustainably managing a particular forest tract means determining, in a tangible way, how to use it today to ensure similar benefits, health and productivity in the future. Forest managers must assess and integrate a wide array of sometimes conflicting factors — commercial and non-commercial values, environmental considerations, community needs, even global impact — to produce sound forest plans. In most cases, forest managers develop their forest plans in consultation with citizens, businesses, organizations and other interested parties in and around the forest tract being managed.

Because forests and societies are in constant flux, the desired outcome of SFM is not fixed. What constitutes a sustainably managed forest will change over time as values held by the public change.

Criteria and indicators

Criteria and indicators are policy instruments by which progress towards implementing SFM may be evaluated and reported on. Criteria define and characterize the essential elements, as well as a set of conditions or processes, by which SFM may be assessed. Periodically measured indicators reveal the direction of change with respect to each criterion.

Criteria and indicators of SFM are widely used and many countries produce national reports that assess their progress towards SFM. There are nine international and regional criteria and indicators initiatives, which collectively involve more than 150 countries. Three of the more advanced initiatives are those of the Working Group on Criteria and Indicators for the Conservation and Sustainable Management of Temperate and Boreal Forests (also called the Montreal Process), the MCPFE and the International Tropical Timber Organization. Countries who are members of the same initiative usually agree to produce reports at the same time and use the same indicators. Within countries, at the management unit level, efforts have also been directed at developing local level criteria and indicators of SFM. The Center for International Forestry Research, the International Model Forest Network and researchers at the University of British Columbia have developed a number of tools and techniques to help forest-dependent communities develop their own local level criteria and indicators. Criteria and indicators also form the basis of the Canadian Standards Association certification standard for SFM.

There appears to be growing international consensus on the key elements of SFM. Seven common thematic areas of SFM have emerged based on the criteria of the nine ongoing regional and international criteria and indicators initiatives. The seven thematic areas are:

• Extent of forest resources;
• Biological diversity;
• Forest health and vitality;
• Productive functions and forest resources;
• Protective functions of forest resources;
• Socio-economic functions; and
• Legal, policy and institutional framework.

This consensus on common thematic areas (or criteria) effectively provides a common, implicit definition of SFM. The seven thematic areas were acknowledged by the international forest community at the fourth session of the United Nations Forum on Forests and the 16^th session of the Committee on Forestry.

Ecosystem approach

The Ecosystem Approach has been prominent on the agenda of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) since 1995. The CBD definition of the Ecosystem Approach and a set of principles for its application were developed at an expert meeting in Malawi in 1995, known as the Malawi Principles. The definition, 12 principles and five points of "operational guidance" were adopted by the 5^th Conference of Parties (COP5) in 2000. The CBD definition is as follows

The ecosystem approach is a strategy for the integrated management of land, water and living resources that promotes conservation and sustainable use in an equitable way. Application of the ecosystem approach will help to reach a balance of the three objectives of the Convention. An ecosystem approach is based on the application of appropriate scientific methodologies focused on levels of biological organization, which encompasses the essential structures, processes, functions and interactions among organisms and their environment. It recognizes that humans, with their cultural diversity, are an integral component of many ecosystems.

SFM was recognized by parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity in 2004 (Decision VII/11 of COP7) to be a concrete means of applying the Ecosystem Approach to forest ecosystems. The two concepts, SFM and the Ecosystem Approach, aim at promoting conservation and management practices that are environmentally, socially and economically sustainable, and which generate and maintain benefits for both present and future generations. In Europe, the MCPFE and the Council for the Pan-European Biological and Landscape Diversity Strategy (PEBLDS) jointly recognized SFM to be consistent with the Ecosystem Approach in 2006.

Independent certification

Growing environmental awareness and consumer demand for more socially responsible businesses helped third-party forest certification emerge in the 1990s as a credible tool for communicating the environmental and social performance of forest operations.

There are many potential users of certification, including forest managers, investors, environmental advocates, business consumers of wood and paper and individuals.

With forest certification, an independent organization develops standards of good forest management and independent auditors issue certificates to forest operations that comply with these standards. This certification verifies that forests are well-managed — as defined by a particular standard — and ensures that certain wood and paper products come from responsibly managed forests.

This rise of certification led to the emergence of several different systems throughout the world. As a result, there is no single accepted forest management standard worldwide and each system takes a somewhat different approach in defining standards for SFM.

Third-party forest certification is an important tool for those seeking to ensure that the paper and wood products they purchase and use come from forests that are well-managed and legally harvested. Incorporating third-party certification into forest product procurement practices can be a centrepiece for comprehensive wood and paper policies that include factors such as the protection of sensitive forest values, thoughtful material selection and efficient use of products.

There are more than 50 certification standards worldwide. Some common ones are:

• Forest Stewardship Council (FSC)
• Sustainable Forestry Initiative (SFI)
• Program for the Endorsement of Forest Certification schemes (PEFC)

The area of forest certified worldwide is growing rapidly. As of December 2006, there were over 2 440 000 km² of forest certified under the CSA, FSC or SFI standards, with over 1 237 000 km² certified in Canada alone.

While certification is intended as a tool to enhance forest management practices throughout the world, to date most certified forestry operations are located in Europe and North America. A significant barrier for many forest managers in developing countries is that they lack the capacity to undergo a certification audit and maintain operations to a certification standard.

Biodiversity

Forests are increasingly seen as complex ecosystems where the woody tree species are but a part of a more significant whole. Pressures for the maintenance of component ecosystems are widely accepted as legitimate, even at the cost of lower productive efficiency or long-term output. To a large extent, the non-conifer forests of Asia and the Pacific are seen as complex structures, systematically undergoing selective degradation for commercial exploitation of the more highly valuable components at the risk of reduced long-term biodiversity. As forestry in the region continues a transition from natural forest exploitation towards sustainably managed forest systems, the role of more uniform managed stands (including the incorporation of exotics) will be questioned. Equity issues surrounding biodiversity maintenance and enhancement can place domestic interests in economic development in conflict with broader international conservation interests. Mechanisms of cost sharing and compensation will likely emerge as major aspects in the working out of acceptable international standards and incentives for biodiversity and conservation of forest ecosystems. Working definitions of practical concepts of biodiversity, sensitive to domestic needs, and strategies for setting local, national, regional and global priorities will confront policy-makers at each level.

The degree to which forest management is compatible with biodiversity and preservation of ecosystems will itself become a much larger policy issue. Is a managed forest meaningfully "diverse"? Are natural systems always "better"? Biodiversity conservation, if achievable through forest management interventions, will certainly differ from conventional approaches oriented towards volume of growth and value maximization over time.

Sustainability

Issues of sustainability will headline forest conservation and management in the next century. Forests in many parts of the world have been approached from the perspective of utilizing or extracting values for society from a naturally accumulated "stock" resource. A form of "mining", this approach sought to transform huge accumulations of timber and forest capital to other forms of wealth represented by the diverse forest product menus around the globe. A combination of concerns regarding the long-term productivity of forests (however measured), intergenerational distribution of wealth and trade-offs between commodity and non-commodity values and components of forest systems have firmly grabbed front page attention over the past decade and command lead recognition in almost any forum seriously engaged in forestry planning and decision-making. The conversion from natural forest/stock extraction towards human-induced managed/production forest remains unfinished and poorly understood around the world in spite of considerable public debate and attention. Numerous major conferences and workshops of policy-makers, professionals and the public have highlighted the concerns and fears regarding sustainability. Agenda 21 is now a recognized short-hand for the numerous issues surrounding the concern for the conservation of forests and sustainable management. The debate is ongoing regarding definitions and measurement of "sustainability" in forestry, but the issue is without question central to the future of the forestry sector. Most immediately, resolution of the diverse concepts of sustainability will heighten national sensitivity to concerns about harvest rates and methods, both critical to the continued production, consumption and trade in forest products, and directly linked to this is the flow of economic benefits to various producer and consumer groups.

The publication After UNCED: implementation of Agenda 21 and the Forest Principles in Asia and the Pacific (FAO 1995) is an excellent and thoughtful analysis of the issues surrounding sustainability as well as many other policy-related issues confronting the region. This report should be central to any discussion on policy matters affecting development and planning in the Asia–Pacific forestry sector.

Deforestation/degradation of forests

Closely associated with forest management are the many issues surrounding the trends in deforestation (including land-use conversions) and degradation of remaining forests. Maintaining a forest land base of high productivity is central to achieving and continuing high-level sustainable timber production. The smaller the land base available to the forestry sector, the lower the sustainable output that can reasonably be achieved, given all other factors and considerations. Likewise, a degraded forest is simply less productive than a healthy, fully stocked and well-protected forest. Excessive pressures for forest utilization in the near term can be "met" by overexploitation of current forest stocks, resulting in a longer term decline in productivity. Forests can be sustained, but only at a reduced level under such conditions. Conditions of land tenure, investment of capital and labour and distributional issues surrounding forest rents and economic returns over time are central to the infrastructure required for successful approaches to this downward spiral. Divergence between regulation and incentives as strategies for enhancing the role of forest management under such conditions has been only recently recognized as a significant issue. Means of organization and institutional capacity, including participation of local people and the private sector, are largely untapped in the Asia–Pacific region, beyond the major developed countries. A productive forest, of course, depends upon the scope and purpose of use. "Fully stocked" for timber purposes can be quite different when fuelwood or soil conservation are the primary objectives.

Causes of degradation and deforestation are also critical to dealing with these issues. Institutional arrangements, tenure, beneficiary participation, etc., create the decision-making environment of those close to the land. Protection of forests, in the broadest sense, is required if maintenance of productive and healthy forest is to be achieved. Many of the contributing causes of deforestation and degradation are external to the forestry sector, including socio-economic variables such as population, population growth, density, levels of economic development, per capita incomes, etc. These factors dictate that solutions and approaches cannot be simply sector-based or centred on forestry technology if there is no proper identification of the more pervasive causes.

Dang Thuy Nga¹

The use and management of forests and trees in Asia and the Pacific depends on the current policies of each country in the region. In this paper, I will take Viet Nam as an example for trends in forest changes in the region in the next 20 years. Viet Nam has 33.12 million hectares of total natural land of which the forested area is 12.61 million hectares; 6.16 million hectares of bare land are used for agricultural activities. By the end of 2005, Viet Nam had 10.20 million hectares of natural forest and 2.33 million hectares of plantation forest with total timber capacity of 813.3 million m³ of which 94 percent was natural forest. Viet Nam also had around 8.5 billion stems of bamboo species (Decision 18/2007, 2006).

Although rich in forest resources, forestry accounts for only 1 percent of the total GDP of Viet Nam. Recently the prime minister approved Decision 18/2007/QD-TTg dated 5 February 2007 for strategies to develop the forestry sector. With the new decision, the forestry sector has a new development orientation until 2020. It can be predicted that the sector will overcome current weak points and Viet Nam will have more flexible forestry policies for further development. Economics, demographics and technology are other forestry-related aspects that will be mentioned later in this paper.

Forest cover changes

Obviously forest cover will change in the future. However, forest cover in Viet Nam will experience different transformation compared to the 1970s when it decreased rapidly because of timber harvesting. Now the government has acknowledged the roles of the forest in different environmental services and because the remaining natural forest area is small. The government has promulgated different policies to protect natural forest, such as logging bans, in most provinces in the country. In 1998, the government approved the 661 Programme to plant 5 million hectares of new forest in order to increase forest cover in Viet Nam (Decision 661 1998). According to the programme, by the end of 2006, 5 million hectares of new forest including protection and special-use forest were to be planted. However, Viet Nam met only 70 percent of the target. In coming years, Viet Nam will continue to finish the 661 Programme and also increase more plantation and production forest area to meet the demand for wood in the future. By 2020, Viet Nam will have increased forested land to 47 percent with 16.24 million hectares for forestry.

Technology development

Viet Nam will have more investment to improve forestry technology. Technology transfer from developed countries and other countries in the region is receiving more attention. Recently, Viet Nam has acquired technology from other countries to plant forest and plantation forest has improved in quality. GIS and remote sensing will be applied in all provinces to manage forest. Some provinces have been using GIS and remote sensing for forest fire prevention and also for forest cover and forest land changes.

Local people will change awareness from protecting trees to protecting forests as ecosystems. The number of people working in the forestry sector will increase, focusing on local communities such as ethnic minorities and women living in remote areas. There will be more forestry extension staff to train local people on techniques to plant forests as well as forest protection. The government will have more policies to encourage studies on seedling improvement and silviculture methods in order to increase productivity, forest quality and biodiversity conservation. Sourcing experience from the previous generation for forest protection will be necessary.

Increasing plantation forest area for production will also increase plantation forest residue. Viet Nam will face a high rate of waste in forestry if it does not salvage residue from plantation forest. For this reason, the government will have more flexible policies to exploit residues from plantation forests and agriculture as fuel. This will help to reduce the dependence of local communities on natural timber.

More plantation forest area will require more development for timber processing. Most timber-processing companies in Viet Nam now produce wood chips from acacia and also produce garden furniture for export. To meet the national timber supply needs in the future, processing industries and commercial timber need to become key targets of the forestry sector. The processing sector will apply advanced technology to increase timber-use efficiency. There will be more policies to encourage private companies or join ventures to invest in forestry as well as forest product processing. In the next 20 years, there will be more large-scale processing factories certified to international standards such as the Chain of Custody Certificate (CoC) or Forest Stewardship Council Certificate (FSC).

Economic development

More plantation and production forest together with advanced technology in the forestry sector will foster economic development. The most remarkable change in the economy will be increased exports. More timber and forest products will be exported. Viet Nam expects to export more than US$7.8 billion by 2020 of which more than US$7 billion will be in wood products and over US$0.8 billion in non-wood forest products (Decision 18 2007). Further development of forestry will create more employment in both cities and rural areas. Around 2 million new jobs in forestry will be created by 2020. The jobs will be related to wood and non-wood product processing and also handicrafts. Local communities' living standards will be improved, which will help to attenuate deforestation. With improved local living standards, the number of poor households in mountainous areas will be reduced by 70 percent.

Besides increasing export, forestry will make income from the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Viet Nam was signatory to the Kyoto Protocol and has initial policies to promote CDM. Viet Nam has high potential for CDM because of the large area of forest and land for planting forest. However, because the forests are scattered, potential buyers have yet to be attracted because they want forests over large areas. In future, with changes in forestry policies, forest land will be accumulated for developing plantation forest. There will be more buyers in Viet Nam for investment in CDM.

Furthermore, other services related to forests such as watershed protection, biodiversity and scenic value will be marketed in future. There will be more payment for environmental services (PES) that will promote investment in forest protection. Currently, the Vietnamese Government is preparing a biodiversity law and a degree of benefit sharing between hydropower plants and local people living upstream of reservoirs. In the next two years, it is expected that these policies will lobby for further activities and address different participating PES beneficiaries.

Demographics

Viet Nam has a population of approximately 83 million people. With a population growth rate of 1.5 percent, it is expected to have over 100 million people in the next 20 years. With higher population, urban migration will continue. The government still maintains a policy to resettle local communities in remote areas along main roads in districts or communes. With this policy, local people have more opportunities to access markets and reduce their dependence on natural resources. However this does not infer that deforestation will stop. With greater pressure from a higher population, deforestation will continue to meet the demands of local people for agriculture. But the situation will be controlled by the government and minimized.

Management and use

Management is important for any forest. More sustainable management, protection and development take the form of allocating forest and forest land to households or individuals or leasing to private companies. The government will certify more forest areas and forest products. Violations will decrease and shifting cultivation on forest land will be minimized. Farmers will receive enough agricultural land and remain settled. Local people will benefit more from allocated forest according to Decree 178 (dated 12 November 2001) of the prime minister that stipulates local people's benefits from allocated forest. Forest protection departments will be the most important forest managers of the country. There will be more budget to maintain enough forest rangers, even in provinces. More local people will take part and support forest rangers in forest protection. Forests will not be managed only for forestry; their tourism value will be captured with the development of ecotourism.

In conclusion, in the next 20 years, forests in Viet Nam will be managed and used more sustainably. The government will have more positive policies to encourage the development of forestry as well as to improve the living standards of local communities.

Pushpendra Rana¹

The use and management of trees and forest is conditioned by the effect and interplay of socioeconomic, political, technological and ecological factors. The influence of these factors in the past has led to the current deterioration of forests and trees; if the same corollary is extended to 20 years from now, the same factors will affect the structure, composition, extent, use and management of forests. Hence, there is an urgent need to look for the trend in current and anticipated social, economic, political, demographic and technological transformations to project the use and management of trees and forests in the next 20 years.

In Himachal Pradesh, India, globalization is currently manifested in the form of industrialization, educational revolution, media activism, communication channels and conveyance facilities. Industries are developing in the lower plains mainly due to the inherent shortcomings in the landscape, which is mainly hilly. Thus, the state has emphasized fruit cultivation (mainly apples), vegetable production and tourism in the past. Due to increasing stress on cement and hydroelectric production, the development perspective of the state has changed to a large extent. In future, economic development will continue and generate improvement in infrastructure, education and other developmental parameters, thereby improving living standards similar to what has occurred in developed countries. But concomitantly consumption patterns and resource depletion will also increase.

In this context of economic transformation, this trend of overall growth based on the earlier developmental model of developed countries will continue at much faster rates. It will result in the exhaustion and degradation of natural resources that are important for human survival. It is important to understand how this "industrialization focused" model of development will affect the use and management of trees and forests in the context of Himachal Pradesh.

In future, state governments will vigorously pursue this market-led industrialization model thereby exacerbating ecological security issues and causing irreparable losses to the environment. No doubt, this industrialization model brought prosperity to developed countries after industrial revolution. But to travel the same path during the present environmental crisis is difficult in Himachal Pradesh, owing to limited options for industrialization and because of overlapping rights and concessions over forest lands. The large portions of land required for development are forested and their conversion might aggravate environmental problems.

Cement plants are fed by mining activities in the hills that deploy heavy machinery and blasting, causing air, water and noise pollution along with permanent loss of forest land/cover. Such destructive activities in the highly fragile areas of the Himalayan mountains result in decimation of the fragile hills, pollution of downstream water channels or sources and disturbance to the ecological harmony of the area; the potential for earthquake devastation (the Himalayan range being in an earthquake-prone zone) is also heightened.

Also, large hydro-electric projects submerge large areas of forest land along with thousands of trees to form human-induced lakes, which further exacerbate long-term threats of earthquake damage. These hydro-electric projects have started to demonstrate signs of exhaustion, with siltation reducing the lives of the reservoirs; thus there is a dismal future for the state and its citizens. The permanent loss of trees, forest land and private land has shifted pressure onto nearby forest lands with nautors (land grants) being awarded to people who have been ousted from them, putting further stress on the scarce natural resources of the state. Settlement issues are not being addressed properly resulting in the emergence of socio-economic problems and ecological movements to stall these projects.

In order to meet the burgeoning needs of the people from the forests, the government needs to design new programmes and policies to protect and enhance forest resources; but owing to limited effectiveness on the ground because of the interplay of political, socio-economic and religious factors, the corresponding result could be negative. This could lead to further degradation of forest resources and amplify the threat of environmental crisis. New forest policies need to include more participation of local people and local Panchayati Raj Institutions (PRIs) in the management of forests and forest resources; this would include participation in the design, planning, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of government programmes and schemes.

Mixed changes are being observed on the social front; social barriers are dwindling owing to the spread of education and awareness in the state. The outreach of media channels and newspapers, education and development of grassroots democracy through PRIs and other social organizations have contributed towards the new awareness about caste realities. This trend will continue in the future.

The rural poor will remain basically dependent on forest resources, thereby leading to the need for policies to accommodate them and to link their subsistence and livelihood needs with the protection and preservation of forests. Forest policies in the next 20 years will be more inclined towards the needs of the marginalized sections of society as the dominant powerbrokers in the local rural establishment will be neutralized by increased economic and education capacities for marginalized groups.

The dominance of money and power in elections will be mitigated as education improves. Politicians will continue airing people's development needs and the cause of business interests, which will further threaten forests and trees. This insensitivity towards environmental needs will continue, aggravating environmental crises. Only the judiciary will keep political aggression towards forests in check and it will force politicians to accept the necessity to develop ecofriendly policies. Politicians are likely to force forest departments to plan policies that take into consideration people's needs and the marginalized section of the society. Externally, they will appreciate the conservation of natural resources but internally they will continue to enforce environmentally damaging development activities. Also they will develop new strategies to dilute environmental policies.

Demographically, the trend towards urbanization is increasing and in due course urban populations will increase significantly. Presently, the trend in migration to cities and to road-heads has affected land use in the state, with more and more agricultural land and forest land lands being used for construction purposes. This trend will continue and will endanger economic and social stability due to declines in agricultural productivity, inappropriate land-use practices and migrant pressure on the environment. New satellite towns need to be developed to accommodate the residential needs of the population. The population of the country is still increasing at alarming rates, adding resource users day by day, and further complicating the management of forest and tree resources.

To accommodate demographic changes, new forest policies will be framed for efficient land-use practices and for increasing the productivity of forest lands to link them with the needs of the people. In addition, negative interventions like regularization of forest land encroachment and dilution of forest rules will reduce the efficacy of forest management strategies.

The technology to exploit natural resources at rapid rates will also increase and thus, will lead towards enhanced resource usage. But during the next 20 years, the development of clean environmental technologies, better scientific techniques to mitigate environmental hazards, technological innovations in forest management techniques and better automation technologies will assist in the improved management of trees and forests. Better automation techniques in forestry will reduce drudgery and free up labour for employment in other sectors. New forest policies will acknowledge scientific development in forestry and incorporate it into solutions to and management of forestry problems and issues. Forest departments will focus on the latest technologies in the field of forestry management like GIS, GPS and satellite technologies to manage forest fires and record the growth parameters of forest wealth.

¹ Deputy Conservator of Forests, Indian Forest Service.