No.2  December 2006  
 Food Outlook
  Global Market Analysis

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OVERVIEW

MARKET SUMMARIES

WHEAT

COARSE GRAINS

RICE

OILSEEDS, OILS AND OILMEALS

SUGAR

MEAT AND MEAT PRODUCTS

MILK AND MILK PRODUCTS

FERTILIZERS

OCEAN FREIGHT RATES

Special features

Statistical appendix

Market indicators and food import bills

Announcement

Market indicators and food import bills

At the global level, expenditures on imported foodstuffs in 2006 could reach a historic high of US$383 billion, over 2 percent more than the level of the previous year. This expectation is based on the realization of current forecasts for commercial food trade and prices for 2006. Rising freight rates in 2006 are incorporated in the import bill forecasts.

On a product basis, Figure 4 shows that the cost of imported sugar, cereals and vegetable oils are expected to be larger, with sugar registering the strongest increase, up 16 percent from the previous year. Higher international prices for these commodities have been the main factor in driving global food import bills upward. By contrast, the value of meat and dairy imports is anticipated to fall because of declining prices and import quantities.

Import bills for developing countries are now anticipated to rise by almost 5 percent from 2005, while for the 82 LIFDCs, expenditures on imported foodstuffs are set to increase by around 3 percent; slightly more than the global average. Regarding the more economically vulnerable countries, Figure 3 shows that LDC food import bills (indexed) in 2006 would be 58 percent higher than they were in 2000. This compares with 19 percent growth in the bills of developed countries.

That the foreseen rise in import bills is largely fuelled by higher international prices of cereals and sugar comes to the dismay of many developing countries that rely on the international market to meet their staple food needs. Indeed, the rise in the bills of these products was mainly caused by the increase in their prices rather than by an increase in the actual volumes of their food imports. Moreover, many countries are anticipated to reduce purchases, not always in response to their own improved domestic supplies but rather because of the high international prices. To further add to the plight of many of the poorer developing countries, higher energy costs as indicated by the CRB energy index, suggest they may need to curtail expenditures on imported staples to sustain their fossil fuel needs.

Forecast import bills of total food and major foodstuffs (US$ million)

  World Developed Developing LDC LIFDC NFIDC
  2005 2006 2005 2006 2005 2006 2005 2006 2005 2006 2005 2006
TOTAL FOOD373 688382 712256 655260 315117 033122 3979 1119 45058 33260 04913 84614 874
Cereals47 69752 62918 55920 55429 13932 0753 3783 56814 25214 9934 7505 161
Vegetable Oils69 29873 53734 81037 19934 48836 3372 0452 04021 29421 6863 7883 879
Dairy34 31833 31523 33022 58810 98810 7287176964 0173 9971 2421 204
Meat64 89163 31154 10952 60110 78210 7105585243 6333 6801 0191 076
Sugar14 79517 2328 1489 6746 6477 5579321 1424 2034 7598871 395


Food Outlook


Food Outlook

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