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I. GENERAL OVERVIEW OF THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY

1.1 Macroeconomic Environment

Ethiopia is classified as being among the least developed countries in the world. Its economy, structurally deficient and backward, has been declining during the past seventeen years. In 1989, the Gross Domestic Product at constant prices was Br12.36billion (US$5.97billion at previous rate). Recent estimates show that since 1987/88, the GDP has been on a continuous decline, with a record fall in 1990/91 where it declined by 5.6%. Agriculture plays a dominant role in the economy, with a contribution to GDP estimated at 38.8% in 1989.

The population is rising fast with the rate of increase accelerating over time. By the end of 1992, the population had reached approximately 52million, with an annual growth rate of 2.9%. By the year 2000 the population is expected to reach 68million. GDP per caput, having failed to return to the pre-drought level (1984) of around Br230, has settled on a plateau of about Br220 (US$106 at previous rate1).

During the last decade, Ethiopia has been a low-inflation country, i.e. about 5% per annum, notably as a result of its prudent fiscal policy. However, in 1990/91 inflation was estimated to be in excess of 10%.

From 1974/75 to 1988/89, imports have increased at an average rate of about 8% per annum, while exports achieved a growth rate of only 1.4% per annum, mainly through stagnation of agricultural exports. The resource balance has therefore shown an increasing deficit.

As a result of the policies of the past several years and the internal problems, the Transitional Government of Ethiopia (TGE) inherited a shattered economy in June 1991. Much of the industrial production had come to a standstill, while essential infrastructure had been destroyed. About half of the total population would now fall under accepted poverty thresholds.

In November 1991, the TGE adopted a new economic policy by replacing the centrally planned economy with a market-based economy. In October 1992, the currency was devalued to Br5 per USdollar, as part of an integrated programme of economic reform. The devaluation is expected to provide new incentive to export at the official exchange rate, and to stimulate economic development.

1.2. The Role of Fisheries in the Economy

Until recently Ethiopia had a solid fish potential estimated at over 80 000 t/year, of which about 50 000 t/year from marine waters. Despite substantial water resources and crucial need for food supply, fish production however has stagnated under 5,000 t/year due mainly to the lack of tradition in fishing and related activities. Commercial fishing is a rather new practice in the Rift Valley Lakes which started in the fifties, while riverine fisheries are still mainly exploited on a subsistence basis.

From the end of the eighties, the former Government had placed emphasis on the development of the fishery sector with a view to reach food self-sufficiency, with the support of projects. At present, in conjunction with a growth in the number of fishermen due to unemployment in other sectors and liberalization of the economy, fishing activities are substantially developing.

The contribution of fisheries to GDP is very small, and would remain so even if the maximum economic yields were actually extracted. Based on annual production estimated at 5,500 t from lakes and reservoirs, the value of fish landed in Ethiopia is about Br5.5million ($US1.1million) at producers' prices averaging Br1/kg. In comparison, the total contribution of forestry, fishing and hunting was estimated at Br0.29billion for 1988/89.

The total number of fishermen, including those from riverine fisheries, is about 2,250 which would show an increase in fishing employment by roughly 50% over the last four years. Furthermore, 220 persons are employed by the Fish Production and Marketing Corporation (FPMC), while a smaller number of licensed and unlicensed private traders are directly employed in fisheries. In production areas where informal marketing has developed, the sector provides a livelihood for a significant part of the population.

All the production is consumed within Ethiopia since fish export activities are nowadays inexistent. In the recent past, the FPMC tried to develop fish export to Middle East markets, with a maximum of 57t exported in 1989/90 to Saudi Arabia. Fish imports are mainly composed of canned fish and represent about 100 t/year.

Table 1 gives indicates on trends in fish supply from 1982 to 1992. Based on a total fish supply of 5 600 t/year, the national average fish consumption is about 100g/year per caput, the lowest in Africa. However, estimated fish consumption in a small radius around waterbodies (Awassa, Arba Minch, Gambella) can be placed at approximately 10kg/year per caput. Fish eating habits in Ethiopia have been mainly influenced by the Orthodox Church which encourages the eating of fish during 80 days of fasting.

Table 1: Total Fish Supply (1983-1992)

Inland prod.

(mt)

Marine prod.

(mt)

Imports

(mt)

Total fish

supply (mt)

1983

3 500

400

10

3 910

1984

3 700

600

30

4 330

1985

3 500

500

160

4 160

1986

3 500

600

20

4 120

1987

3 500

500

10

4 010

1988

3 340

720

60

4 120

1989

2 710

1 560

30

4 300

1990

4 300

2 000

30

7 330

1991

4 300

-

100

4 400

1992

5 500

-

100

5 600

Source: FRDD, FPMC, Lake Fisheries Development Project (LFDP),

FAO/TCP/ETH/1357, FIPPDAT

Although physical conditions allow for development of aquaculture, no tradition as such exists in Ethiopia. Since 1975, only culture-based stock enhancement operations have been carried out by a governmental station.

Direct annual contribution of the fisheries and aquaculture sector to Government revenues is about Br750 000. It is made of sales tax of 5% on purchases of fish, and income tax from fishermen's associations. However, much of the fish is beyond the reach of taxation, being produced and marketed informally. Fishermen's associations also pay small royalties to the Government for the right to exploit their local fishery, but more precise information is lacking.

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