Africa report 05/96 Individual countries

SOMALIA

Area:	627 000 sq.km
Climate:	Semi-arid in the south; rest arid
Population:	6.7 million (1996 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: U.S.$ 120 (1990)
Specific characteristics of the country:	Low-income food-deficit country
Logistics:	Inadequate port facilities; serious shortage of fuel and spare parts
Major foodcrops:	Maize, sorghum, sesame
Marketing year:	September/August; Lean season: June-August
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:	45 percent

CURRENT SITUATION

Output of the 1996 secondary “Der” cereal crop, harvested until February, is estimated at 110 000 tons, similar to last year's and above average. This includes 75 000 tons of sorghum and 35 000 tons of maize. In response to adequate rainfall at the beginning of the season and a poor main “Gu” crop, area planted increased and yields improved. In contrast, output of the main “Gu” crop declined by 45 percent from the previous year to 172 000 tons, due to reduced planting, pest infestation and erratic rainfall. Aggregate cereal production in 1995/96 is estimated at 284 000 tons, a third below pre-war levels.Due to reduced cereal production in 1995/96, it is expected that the food supply situation will deteriorate from May, when food stocks would be close to depletion. The situation has been made worse by persistent insecurity in the country which has disrupted trade and led to frequent closure of Mogadishu port. As a result, prices have not decreased in the post-harvest period in some markets, while prices of imported food have increased. Imports in marketing year 1995/96 (September/August) are estimated at 320 000 tons, significantly higher than in the previous year. Commercial imports are estimated at 125 000 tons, leaving a deficit of 195 000 tons to be covered by food aid. Against requirements, by mid-March pledges amounted to only 24 000 tons. Substantial food assistance is still urgently needed in the months ahead before the next main harvest in September 1996. In northern pastoral areas, drought conditions have been reported in several parts, particularly in the Awdal northeastern region. However, there are indications that unusual migration patterns have permitted pastoralists to cope with the situation. The next "Gu" rains from April will be crucial for pastures and livestock recovery in the area.

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1995/96 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tons)

	Wheat	Rice	Coarse grains	Total
Normal production	-	9	550	559
Normal imports (incl. re-exports)	70	60	10	140
of which: Structural food aid	40	20	10	70
1995/96 Domestic availability	-	2	311	313
1995 Production	-	2	282	284
Possible stock drawdown	-	-	29	29
1995/96 Utilization	115	42	476	633
Food use	115	42	443	600
Non-food use	-	-	33	33
1995/96 Import Requirement	115	40	165	320
Anticipated commercial imports	55	35	35	125
Food aid needs	60	5	130	195
Current Aid Position
Food aid pledges	13	2	9	24
of which: Delivered	13	-	7	20
Estimated per caput consumption (kg/year)	17	7	66	90
Indexes
1995 production as % of normal:				51
1995/96 import requirement as % of normal:				229
1995/96 food aid requirement as % of normal (including refugee needs):				279

FAO/GIEWS - April 1996