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This chapter was commissioned by FAO from external authors to explore some macroeconomic issues related to food security from an alternative perspective in order to broaden, deepen and enrich the debate on this very important subject. This was done in the awareness that professional economists have strong and honest differences in their interpretations and assessments of facts and information related to many issues, including those relating to food security. FAO welcomes the contribution to the debate without taking any official position on its content.

FAO. 1983. Report of the Committee on World Food Security, 8th Session. Document CL83/10. Rome. The definition was endorsed at the International Conference on Nutrition in 1992 and, with minor variations of wording, it is now in widespread use among those dealing with poverty and food security issues.

An overview of the development of world and regional trade can be found in FAO. 1995. Agricultural trade: entering a new era? in The State of Food and Agriculture 1995. Rome.

For a fuller discussion of the demand for food and the distinction between demand and consumption, see FAO. 1995. Policy reform and the consumer. In The State of Food and Agriculture 1995. Rome.

S.L. Barraclough. 1991. An end to hunger? The social origins of food strategies. A report prepared for the United Nations Research Institute for Social Development (UNRISD) and the South Commission based on UNRISD research on food systems and society. London and Atlantic Highlands, NJ, USA, Zed Books Ltd in association with UNRISD.

A. Swinbank. 1992. The EEC's policies and its food. Food Policy, February 1992, p. 53-64.

P. Diskin. 1994. Understanding linkages among food availability, access, consumption and nutrition in Africa: empirical findings and issues from the literature. Michigan State University International Development Working Paper No. 46. Department of Agricultural Economics/Department of Economics. Michigan State University.

World Bank. 1986. Poverty and hunger. World Bank Policy Study. Washington, DC, World Bank. The World Bank seems to have largely dropped this distinction in its recent strategy paper: H.P. Binswanger and P. Landell-Mills. 1995. The World Bank's strategy for reducing poverty and hunger: a report to the Development Community. Washington, DC, World Bank. The emphasis is now on short-term and medium-term policy measures for addressing both types of food insecurity. However, some authors have tried to maintain the earlier distinction.

FAO. 1996. Food, agriculture and food security: developments since the World Food Conference and prospects for the future. World Food Summit technical background document No. 1. Rome.

10 The main findings of each are presented and discussed in IFPRI. 1995. Population and food in the early twenty-first century: meeting future food demand of an increasing population. Edited by N. Islam. IFPRI Occasional Papers. Washington, DC.

11 In subsequent model revisions for projections to 2020, IFPRI results for 2010 have been revised most notably for the former CPEs (production and consumption) and for sub-Saharan Africa (net imports), which are now much closer to the FAO projections.

12 An extensive discussion of methodological issues, population projections and the findings for the main regional groupings can be found in IFPRI, op. cit., footnote 10. Further consideration of the regional issues is available in various numbers of the IFPRI Food, Agriculture and the Environment Discussion Paper Series.

13 These findings are considered by one reviewer to be unduly pessimistic about the prospects for food security in sub-Saharan Africa. See G.I. Abalu in IFPRI, p. 121-126., op. cit., footnote 10.

14 This is addressed later in the chapter.

15 There is a wealth of documentation on this subject at all levels of technicality. FAO produces a wide range of publications on specific aspects and the technical background documents for the World Food Summit 1996 (see Box 14, p. 263) provide extensive coverage of many aspects of food security. Useful overviews are also provided in: World Bank. 1995. World Development Report 1995. New York, Oxford University Press; P. Pinstrup-Andersen and R. Pandya-Lorch. 1994. Alleviating poverty, intensifying agriculture, and effectively managing natural resources. Food, Agriculture and the Environment Discussion Paper No. 1. Washington, DC, IFPRI. In addition, several background papers for IFPRI's 2020 Vision initiative have been prepared covering a wide range of relevant topics.

16 The main pressures underlying these policy reforms are presented in FAO. 1995. Policy reform and the consumer, in The State of Food and Agriculture 1995. Rome.

17 World Bank. 1986. Poverty and hunger. A World Bank Policy Study. Washington, DC.

18 Barraclough, op. cit., footnote 5, p. 266.

19 Ibid.

20 As an example, there have been cases where a government agency has restricted, for example, fertilizer supplies to those supporting a particular political party.

21 D.G. Johnson. 1984. Alternative approaches to international food reserves. Paper prepared for the FAO Symposium on World Food Security, Rome, 3 to 7 September 1984. ESC:FS/SYMP/84/5.

22 P. Pinstrup-Andersen and J.L. Garrett. 1996. Rising food prices and falling grain stocks: short-run blips or new trends? 2020 Brief No. 30. Washington, DC, IFPRI.

23 FAO, op. cit., footnote 3, p. 265.

24 The results of this survey are published in five volumes in the World Bank`s. The Political economy of agricultural pricing policy. Baltimore, MD, USA and London, Johns Hopkins University Press. A summary of the major policy findings is given in M. Schiff and A. Valdés. 1992. The plundering of agriculture in developing countries. Washington, DC, World Bank.

25 L. Demery and L. Squire. 1996. Macroeconomic adjustment and poverty in Africa: an emerging picture. The World Bank Research Observer, 11(1): 39-59. The authors review evidence from six African countries using data from detailed household surveys.

26 Schiff and Valdés, op. cit., footnote 24.

27 The purpose of the EU's Sectoral Import Programme is to provide foreign exchange for the purchase of certain high-priority imports, such as fertilizer, agrochemicals, machinery and spare parts for agricultural processing and fishing equipment. The equivalent amount in local currency must be forthcoming and the scheme is open to private-sector agents as well as government agencies.

28 The function and use of futures markets, including the distinction between hedging and speculation and the different uses made of them by producers, traders, processors and speculators, is the subject of a large literature. A good introductory explanation
of futures markets for agricultural commodities can be found in D.M.G. Newbery and J.E. Stiglitz. 1981. The theory of commodity price stabilization: a study in the economics of risk. Oxford, UK, Clarendon Press.

29 K.M. Gordon. 1982. Food security: a mean-variance approach. Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA. (Ph.D. thesis)

30 H. Ezekiel. 1993. Integration between export compensation and cereal financing under the IMF Cereal Financing Scheme. In P. Berck and D. Bigman, eds. 1993. Food security and food inventories in developing countries. Wallingford, UK, Commonwealth Agricultural Bureaux International.

31 The 32 SILICs form the majority of the 41 countries classified by the World Bank in World Debt Tables 1994-95 as heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs). The remainder of the HIPCs consist of seven countries that have received concessional treatment from the Paris Club and two lower-middle-income countries that have recently become IDA-only countries. See S. Claessens, E. Detragiache, R. Kanbur and P. Wickham. 1996. Analytical aspects of the debt problems of heavily indebted poor countries. Policy Research Working Paper No. 1618. The World Bank Africa Regional Office, Office of the Chief Economist, and East Asia and Pacific Regional Office, Office of the Regional Vice President, and International Monetary Fund Research Department.

32 Financial Times, 20 May 1996.

33 The discrepancy between debt stock and debt service payments arises because the multilateral creditors are the first to be paid because of the severe penalties incurred if a country falls into arrears with IMF or the World Bank. For a detailed analysis of the issue, see Oxfam. 1996. Multilateral debt: the human costs. Oxfam International Position Paper. Oxford, UK.

34 Ibid.

35 Ibid.

36 T. Killick. 1993. The adaptive economy: adjustment policies in small, low-income countries. EDI Development Studies. Washington, DC, World Bank.

37 M.B. Gleave, ed. 1992. Tropical African development. Harlow, United Kingdom, Longman Scientific and Technical; New York, John Wiley and Sons Inc.

38 See Demery and Squire, op. cit., footnote 25, p. 294, who note that the evidence suggests that urban poverty appears to have increased significantly. They also emphasize the continuing data problem, despite the recent increase in the number of household surveys.

39 J. Von Braun. 1987. Food security policies for the urban poor. Reprint No. 169. Washington, DC, IFPRI, from A. Kopp, ed. 1987. Scientific positions to meet the challenge of rural and urban poverty in developing countries. Proceedings of a conference organized by the German Foundation for International Development and the Centre for Regional Development Research at the Justus-Liebig University of Giessen, Germany, 22 to 26 June 1987. Hamburg, Verlag Weltarchiv GMBH.

40 There is no standard definition of urban in terms of size of town. Furthermore, definitions can include administrative and commercial importance and non-agricultural activity criteria. Thus, in the developing country context, urbanization is characterized more by diversity of economic base with relatively low dependence on agriculture than by size, see Gleave, op. cit., footnote 37.

41 A good summary is given in: T.L. Vollrath. 1994. The role of agriculture and its prerequisites in economic development. Food Policy, 19(5): 469-478.

42 J. Von Braun. 1989. The importance of non-agricultural income sources for the rural poor in Africa and implications for food and nutrition policy. Reprint No. 189. Washington, DC, IFPRI, from PEW/Cornell Lecture Series on Food and Nutrition Policy.

43 Ibid.

44 Gleave, op. cit., footnote 37, p. 311.

45 A theoretical and empirical analysis of the different components of structural adjustment programmes and their impact on poverty can be found in F. Stewart. 1995. Adjustment and poverty: options and choices. London and New York, Routledge.

46 F. Stewart, ibid, offers a more detailed exposition of the subsequent discussion.

47 See Demery and Squire, op. cit., footnote 25, p. 294.

48 Stewart, op. cit., footnote 45.

49 See Demery and Squire, op. cit., footnote 25, p. 294.

50 "Where the poor are concentrated on the periphery of urban areas, as in many developing countries, the costs and availability of public transport become key factors in their ability to obtain employment." World Bank. 1994. World Development Report 1994. New York, Oxford University Press.

51 World Bank. 1990. World Development Report 1990. New York, Oxford University Press.

52 J. Von Braun, ed. 1995. Employment for poverty reduction and food security. Washington, DC, IFPRI.

53 A good account of the types of programmes that have been attempted in different countries and regions and the lessons that can be learned is given in Von Braun, ibid.

54 Barraclough, op. cit., footnote 5, p. 266.

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