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Production trends

Worldwide, the area sown to millet has remained relatively stable at around 38 million hectares for the past two decades (Table 1). Both production and yield increased by a little over 10 percent through the 1980s, but have remained unchanged since then. Current global production is about 28 million tons, and average yields are 0.75 t/ha. At a regional level, however, there are sharp differences in trends, especially between the two main producers, Asia and Africa (Fig. 3, 4 and 5).

Developing countries

In Asia, millet area declined by 2.4 percent per annum between 1979 and 1994, falling from 23 million to 17 million hectares (Tables 1 and 2). However, part of this decline was compensated by yield increases (1.5 percent per annum). During the past three decades, yields have roughly doubled in China - where they are now among the highest in the world - and increased by more than half in India. This progress is essentially a result of successful breeding research and the widespread dissemination of pearl millet hybrids in India and improved open-pollinated foxtail millet varieties in China.

Output trends in Asia have been heavily influenced by policy changes in China. The millet economy, which was earlier subjected to production quotas and farm and consumer prices set by the government, was virtually fully liberalized by 1987. This allowed farmers to shift to more remunerative crops, and respond to changing consumer preferences. Consequently, the millet area declined from 2.3 million hectares in 1989-91 to 1.9 million hectares in 1992-94, and current production is about half the peak levels reached in the mid 1980s. In fact, the government has discontinued millet procurement as a result of this decline.

Figure 3. Global trends in millet production, 1979-94.

Figure 4. Global trends in millet area, 1979-94.

Figure 5. Global trends in millet yield, 1979-94 (3-year moving average).

Table 2. Millet annual growth rates, 1979-94.


Area (%/yr)

Yield (%/yr)

Production (%/yr)

Per caput production (%/yr)

Developing countries

0.3

0.4

0.6

-1.4

Africa

4.1

-0.6

3.4

0.6

Northern Africa

2.7

-2.7

-0.1

-2.6


Sudan

2.7

-2.7

-0.2

-2.5

Western Africa

4.7

-0.4

4.2

1.2

 


Burkina Faso

3.8

2.0

5.9

3.0

Ghana

0.7

3.0

3.7

0.4

Côte d'Ivoire

2.6

2.5

5.2

1.3

Mali

5.1

-1.0

4.0

2.3

Niger

3.9

-1.0

2.8

-1.3

Nigeria

7.7

-2.3

5.2

2.2

Senegal

0.1

1.4

1.5

-1.4

Togo

3.5

-1.5

1.9

-1.2

Central Africa

3.6

-1.3

2.3

0.0

 

Cameroon

-6.1

3.3

-3.0

-5.8

Chad

5.4

-0.5

4.8

2.0

Eastern Africa

0.5

-0.1

0.4

-2.4

 

Ethiopia

1.1

0.8

1.8

-1.0

Kenya

3.7

-2.4

1.2

-2.3

Tanzania

-2.0

-2.4

-4.4

-7.3

Uganda

2.3

0.5

2.8

-0.5

Zimbabwe

-1.6

-2.6

-4.2

-7.2

Southern Africa

5.9

-4.5

1.1

-1.8

Asia

-2.4

1.5

-0.9

-2.8

Near East

-2.0

-3.1

-5.0

-7.7

Far East

-2.4

1.5

-0.9

-2.7

 

China

-6.1

1.8

-4.5

-5.8

India

-1.8

2.7

0.9

-1.2

Myanmar

0.5

1.5

2.0

-0.2

Nepal

4.6

1.5

6.2

3.5

Pakistan

-1.8

-1.2

-3.0

-6.3

Central America and the Caribbean

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

South America

-12.5

2.3

-10.5

-12.2


Argentina

-12.5

2.3

-10.5

-11.8

Developed countries

-0.3

0.4

0.1

-0.9

 

Australia

0.6

-0.5

0.2

-1.3

United States

4.3

-0.1

4.3

3.3

CIS1

-0.6

0.2

-0.3

-2.0

World

0.3

0.4

0.7

-1.1

1. Until 1991, area of the former USSR.
Source: FAO

Africa is the only region where millet production is growing, having risen from 8 million to over 11 million tons between 1979-81 and 1992-94 (Table 1). Most of the increase in production, however, occurred during the first half of the 1980s and has since been sustained by area expansion, mainly in the Sahel and to a smaller extent in other countries.

For many African countries, millet yields have remained stagnant or fallen (Tables 1 and 2), partly because much of the expansion has been into areas with poor soils and low, erratic rainfall. Overall, millet production has grown slightly faster than population with 'per caput production increasing by 0.6 percent per annum between 1979 and 1994. However, this situation is likely to be reversed in the near future.

In a number of countries, consumption levels of millet have been maintained only through area expansion. Even so, most millet production areas remain food-insecure. As land constraints become more severe, it is imperative that productivity of this key staple is increased to ensure at least minimal food security.

Developed countries

The only millet producer of any significance in the developed countries is the CIS (Table 1). Millet production rose sharply during the 1980s as a result of large increases in productivity (from 0.63 to 0.86 t/ha between 1979-81 and 1989-91). However, subsequent developments were similar to those in China.

In the Russian Federation, for example, production levels were supported by prices unrelated to production costs and determined by production quotas set by the government. When price setting was discontinued and quotas abolished, the market collapsed. Land was shifted from millet to wheat and other grains. Millet output dropped from 2.3 million tons in 1989 to 482,000 tons in 1994.

Kazhakastan traditionally produced millet mainly for export to other parts of the former USSR. When this trade disappeared during the early 1990s, following declining demand, production fell from 1.0 million tons to 300,000 tons per annum.

Production constraints

Millet production in the developing world, particularly in Africa, suffers from a number of constraints - poor soil fertility, low and erratic rainfall, high temperatures, widespread Striga infestation, downy mildew disease and loss of grain to birds.

Population pressures have led to a shortening of fallow periods, which in turn has accelerated the decline in soil fertility. These processes have also prompted the expansion of millet into more marginal lands. The impact is evident in the declining yields of millet in the major producing countries in Africa (Niger, Mali, Nigeria) over the past 15 years. Similar trends are also evident in the harsher millet production environments in Asia (e.g., western Rajasthan in India).

In addition, millets are cultivated on small, fragmented production units and are often intercropped (usually with legumes and sometimes with sorghum or maize).

Unreliable precipitation tends to keep the use of inputs such as chemical fertilizer, pesticides and hired labour to a minimum; and limited commercial demand depresses the incentive to use purchased inputs.

Crop improvement is generally more difficult in millet than in most other crops, largely because of the nature of the environment in which they are grown (see section on Technological Change). National millet improvement programmes began much later and remained weaker than those for many other crops.

Budgets for millet breeding research are low in most countries. Moreover, almost no experience has been acquired on millet breeding in developed countries that could be transferred to developing countries, as has been done for wheat and maize. Among the different types of millet only pearl millet, and to a small extent finger millet, has so far been researched at the international level. Where new technologies for crop and resource management have been developed, adoption has been poor, partly because of inadequate extension, but, equally, because farmers in harsh environments are generally more risk-averse than their counterparts in more favourable environments. The returns from investing labour and capital in millet production may be lower than the gains derivable from such investments in other farm and non-farm enterprises. Further, many new technologies may not be properly tailored to farmers' severely resource-constrained circumstances.

Varietal improvement

Hybrid breeding programmes have traditionally targeted the relatively better environments, although even these environments are harsher than those for most other crops. Hybrid grain cultivars have been developed for pearl millet in India and the United

States, but perform best in areas where rainfall is reliable. In drier areas with more erratic rainfall, it is far more difficult and time-consuming for breeders to identify dual-purpose grain/stover combinations that are superior across a range of growing conditions. For these areas, crop breeders have concentrated on developing open-pollinated varieties that give stable grain and straw yields and suit the prevailing rainfall pattern, rather than on attempting to maximize yield potential under more favourable conditions.

Grain yields of improved cultivars grown with low to moderate inputs can exceed those of local landraces by about 20 percent; an even more important advantage is that they often mature earlier, and thus perform better under terminal drought stress. However, the adoption of improved varieties remains poor outside a few countries, such as China (foxtail millet), the CIS (proso millet), India (pearl millet) and the United States (proso, foxtail and pearl millets). For example, in Niger, the world's fourth largest producer, improved varieties account for only 5 percent of the millet area, in part because the seed multiplication and distribution system is inadequate.


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