Planting of the 1996/97 first season cereal crops has been completed, with the beginning of the rainy season, and harvesting is due from August. Maize output, mostly white, is provisionally forecast to decline from last year’s below- average 30 000 tons to about 28 000 tons, reflecting a smaller area planted which is mostly due to a combination of bad weather at planting, particularly in the Guanacaste province, and shortage of credit. Production of paddy is expected to be close to the 1995 slightly below-average volume of 192 000 tons.

Wheat imports in marketing year 1996/97 (July/June) are projected at about 165 000 tons, similar to last year. Maize imports, mainly yellow, are anticipated to increase from 270 000 to about 290 000 tons, despite high international prices, reflecting strong demand from the feed industry. Rice imports in 1996 (January/December) are expected to be about 50 000 tons, similar to 1995.

CUBA (19 June)

Planting of the 1996 second season (spring) paddy crop and harvesting of the first season (winter) crop was interrupted in late May by heavy rains and flooding in the main growing areas of Cienfuegos, Villa Clara and Sancti Spiritus. The flooding also caused loss of life and damage to agriculture, though no official assessment of damage has yet been made. Heavy rains and flooding, damaging coffee plantations and citrus groves, have also been reported recently in the eastern provinces of Las Tunas and Holguín. In contrast, the output of potato and other minor food crops has been satisfactory.

Harvesting of the 1995/96 sugar cane crop, the main export, has been completed with some delay, following heavy rains in mid-March. No official estimates are yet available, but reports suggest that the Government target of 4.5 million tons has been met. This compares with a reduced output of 3.3 million tons in 1995.

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC (20 June)

Normal rainfall in April benefited development of the 1996 first season coarse grain and other food crops for harvesting from July. The output of maize and sorghum is provisionally forecast at an above-average 50 000 tons and 20 000 tons respectively. Large water reserves have favoured the irrigated paddy crop, which is currently being harvested. Output is expected to be an above-average 480 000 tons.

Wheat imports in marketing year 1996 (January/December) are forecast to be about 250 000 tons, similar to 1995. Maize imports, mostly for feed, declined from some 710 000 tons to about 560 000 tons, mainly as a consequence of large carryover stocks and high international prices. Rice imports are expected to decrease from some 30 000 tons in 1995, due to large carryover stocks and import restrictions.

EL SALVADOR (20 June)

Adequate rains from the beginning of the rainy season improved soil moisture levels for planting of the 1996/97 main season cereal and bean crops. Early prospects point to above-average coarse grain plantings, principally white maize, in response to strong domestic demand and attractive prices. The area planted to paddy is provisionally forecast to be about average.

Wheat imports in marketing year 1996/97 (July/June) are forecast at about 195 000 tons, similar to 1995/96. Maize imports, mostly for feed, are projected to be a relatively high 130 000 tons, mostly due to the strong demand and an anticipation of lower import tariffs. Rice imports in marketing year 1996 (January/December) should decline from some 35 000 tons to about 15 000 tons.

GRENADA (2 June)

The situation, following attacks by the Hibiscus Mealy Bug, or Pink Mealy Bug, has improved as a result of pest control measures. Nevertheless, considerable damage has occurred to food and cash crops, particularly cocoa a major foreign exchange earner, with resulting food shortages and higher prices for food items in local markets.

GUATEMALA (10 June)

Planting of the 1996/97 main season cereal crops, mostly maize, is about to be completed. Early forecasts are favourable, reflecting a significant increase from last year in the area planted to coarse grains, principally maize, in response to more attractive prices to producers. Coarse grain output is provisionally forecast at an above-average 1.3 million tons, provided good weather persists for the remainder of the growing season, which compares to 1.1 million tons in 1995. The minor paddy output is anticipated to be slightly above average.

Wheat imports in marketing year 1996/97 (July/June) are expected to decrease from 310 000 tons in the previous year to some 275 000 tons, mainly due to high international prices and relatively large carryover stocks. Maize imports are also expected to decline from 175 000 tons to about 150 000 tons, while rice imports in 1996 (January/December) should remain close to the 1995 volume of 37 000 tons.

HAITI* (20 June) Harvesting of the 1996/97 first season cereal crops is underway. Production of maize is provisionally forecast to be about average, while sorghum output is expected to decrease from last year’s slightly below-average level. The outlook for the irrigated paddy crop is poor, as output is anticipated to remain close to the low level of the last two years. This is mainly due to the high cost of agricultural inputs, coupled with bad weather at planting.

The food supply situation is nevertheless under control. To cover the deficit in production, aggregate cereal imports in the 1996/97 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at about 275 000 tons.

HONDURAS (4 June)

Normal rains in April benefited planting of the 1996/97 main season cereal crops, principally maize. Early production forecasts indicate that maize output should be slightly above average, although lower than last year’s satisfactory level. This is largely in response to anticipated increased exports to neighbouring countries where attractive prices are being paid. Paddy output should be about 40 000 tons, compared to 35 000 tons in 1995, but nevertheless below average.

Wheat imports in marketing year 1996/97 are forecast at about 175 000 tons, similar to the volume of imports in the last 2 years. In order to help cover the domestic supply deficit, partly caused by the expanding exports, about 60 000 tons of yellow maize are expected to be imported. Rice imports in 1996 (January/December) are estimated at about 25 000 tons, similar to 1995.

MEXICO (20 June)

Prospects for the 1996/97 wheat crop are poor. Output is anticipated to fall further from last year’s poor crop, principally due to dry and hot weather conditions, which mainly affected important growing states of Sinaloa, Sonora, Chihuahua, and Baja California in the north-west. Farmers were forced to under-irrigate crops because of inadequate water reserves, thus reducing yields. The 1996 wheat output is provisionally forecast at about 3.2 million tons compared to 3.6 million tons in the previous year. Wheat imports in marketing year 1996/97 (May/April) are anticipated to increase to 1.8 million tons from 1.4 million tons in the previous year.

The outlook is also poor for the 1996/97 maize and sorghum crops currently being planted. Despite Government efforts to achieve recovery from last year’s poor crop, principally through the provision of financial assistance to rural producers and extension programmes, a persistent drought may significantly reduce the overall area planted. The drought is seriously affecting large maize and sorghum growing areas in the northeastern states of Coahuila, Tamaulipas and Nuevo León, as well as Durango, which were also affected by drought in 1995. The target areas for maize and sorghum are 8 million and 2 million hectares respectively, compared to 7.5 and 1.4 million hectares in 1995/96.

NICARAGUA (20 June)

Planting of the 1996/97 first season cereal crops has recently started with the first rains of the rainy season. Prospects are good and the area planted to maize, the main crop, should be well above average. Sorghum plantings should increase to an above-average level. A satisfactory level of paddy plantings is also anticipated.

Wheat imports in 1996/97 marketing year (July/June) should be about 110 000 tons, close to last year’s receipts. Maize imports should decrease from about 50 000 tons to 25 000 tons, mostly as a consequence of the high level of international prices. Rice imports in 1996 marketing year (January/December) should be about 30 000 tons, close to the previous year’s receipts.

ST. KITTS AND NEVIS (2 June)

Infestation by the Hibiscus Mealy Bug or Pink Mealy Bug continues, but control measures have helped reduce damage to food and export crops.

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO (2 June)

Crops remain under threat from the Hibiscus Mealy Bug or Pink Mealy Bug, but the control measures implemented have helped diminish the threat posed by the pest.