The 1996 south-west monsoon started on time in several parts of Asia, benefiting the planting of the main rice and coarse grains crops. In India, the early outlook for foodcrops is favourable, following the timely onset of rains and the expectation that the country will receive a normal monsoon again this year. Elsewhere, beneficial rainfall favoured rice production prospects in several countries including Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar and the Philippines.
Severe food shortages are reported in the Juba Valley region of Somalia, following a poor harvest last year and difficulties in distributing food aid due to insecurity. The situation needs careful monitoring, as widespread famine could develop if the next crop fails. Elsewhere in eastern Africa, the outlook is mixed. Despite good prospects in several countries, the harvest is likely to be reduced in Burundi, due to increased insecurity and an earlier dry spell. The outlook for the main maize crop is also poor in Kenya due to a decline in plantings and dry weather. In pastoral areas of Djibouti, Somalia and Ethiopia, although rains in April/May improved pasture and livestock conditions, they came too late to avoid livestock losses leaving a large number of people vulnerable. Food assistance is required in these areas.
Planting has started in most Sahelian countries following the timely onset of rains. Crop development is satisfactory in the countries along the Gulf of Guinea, but output remains severely constrained in Liberia due to continued insecurity. In Sierra Leone, food production is expected to recover providing the peace process continues. In Central Africa, widespread rains in April and May also favoured the planting of crops in the Central African Republic and Cameroon.
Bumper crop harvested in most southern African countries following favourable rains. In several countries, above average rainfall induced large plantings and provided favourable conditions for developing crops. However, in Angola and Mozambique, although an increase in maize and other food crops is forecast, substantial food assistance will still be required in 1996/97 to meet needs.
In Central America, the outlook for the maize and sorghum crop in Mexico is uncertain following hot and dry weather conditions which have affected planting. Maize production is also expected to decrease in Argentina and Brazil, compared to favourable production last year.
Cereal output is projected to increase in 1996 in the CIS, where the winter grain harvest is expected to be substantially higher than last year. However, in the Russian Federation crop targets may not be met as planting of spring crops has been delayed by dry conditions.
In Bosnia-Herzegovina, early prospects for food production are promising. A recent FAO Mission forecast a substantial increase in cereal and potato output, due to the end of hostilities and better availability of agricultural inputs. However, although the food situation is expected to improve in rural areas, emergency assistance will still be required for a large number of displaced and vulnerable people in urban areas.
Cereal crops in Europe benefited from warmer weather in recent weeks, after a slow start to the spring growing season. The cereal supply situation in some eastern countries could tighten further in the period up to harvest.
In the United States, the outlook for winter wheat has deteriorated, due to unfavourable weather during much of the spring and output is expected to fall by some 5 percent. However, conditions improved in time for maize planting in most parts and prospects point to a good recovery in the 1996 coarse grain crop.
In Australia, another good wheat crop is in prospect, reflecting abundant and widespread rains for planting in May.