Technical
background
document
Executive summary
© FAO, 1996
1. INTRODUCTION
2. FEASIBLE TARGETS FOR REDUCTION OF UNDERNUTRITION
Defining the magnitude of the task ahead
A modest global objective with a high pay-off
Can the world produce the additional food?
From food supplies to access to food
Normative objectives in the light of historical experience
Making accelerated production growth happen: nvestment requirements
4. THE WIDER POLICY CONTEXT FOR IMPROVING FOOD SECURITY
ANNEX: COMMITMENTS AND AGREEMENTS BY THE 1974 WORLD FOOD CONFERENCE
The preparation of the World Food Summit technical background documents has mobilized, in addition to FAO’s own staff contributions, a considerable amount of expertise in the international scientific community, drawn from partner international institutions and governmental or non-governmental circles. The process has been monitored at FAO by an internal Reading Committee, composed of staff selected ad personam and established to ensure that the whole collection meets appropriate quality and consistency criteria.
The present document has been prepared by FAO’s N. Alexandratos with contributions from J. Bruinsma, K. White and E. Rossmiller. After initial review within FAO by all technical departments, invited colleagues and the Reading Committee, and by selected external reviewers, a first version was published and circulated for comments to governments, intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) and non-governmental organizations (NGOs), as well as further peer reviewers. Much appreciated comments and advice have been received from Ricardo Diez Hochleitner, President of the Club of Rome; Per Pinstrup-Anderson at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, DC; Lester Brown of the Worldwatch Institute, Washington, DC; Frank Wolter at the World Trade Organization (WTO), Geneva; and Prof. M. Kassas at Cairo University, Egypt.
While grateful for the contributions received from all reviewers, the FAO Secretariat bears responsibility for the content of the document.
Current prospects, as presented in World Food Summit (WFS) companion paper 1 Food, agriculture and food security: developments since the World Food Conference and prospects, show that in the year 2010 a large number of developing countries might still have per caput food supplies [measured as their average dietary energy supplies (DES), a widely available proxy for food consumption] that would be totally inadequate for reducing significantly the incidence of undernutrition. Indeed, such incidence would remain stubbornly high, at some 680 million persons in the year 2010, a very small reduction from the 840 million of 1990-1992.
Progress beyond such a grim outcome can result only from a combination of two factors: a more equitable sharing of opportunities and entitlements to widen the access to adequate food, and a faster growth in available food supplies, hence DES. While improved access is the key everywhere, there is no alternative to raising food supplies in those countries where the average DES is so low that a large proportion of the population is undernourished while a minority of the remainder enjoys food consumption above recommended levels. Such countries are also mainly dependent on agriculture as an economic mainstay.
A DES level of 2 700 Calories corresponds to a situation where, under fairly equitable access to food supplies, undernutrition can be reduced to 3 percent or less of the population. But many countries are expected not to be able to reach this DES level by the year 2010, and together they would host 3 billion people of whom nearly 550 million are expected to be undernourished. Indeed, for those among them who have at present very low DES, to reach a target of 2 700 Calories by the year 2010 would require aggregate food consumption to grow at 5 percent per annum, or even more, depending on population trends. This level of growth implies overall economic prospects far above those currently considered to be a reasonable expectation in many of these countries. (For example, the latest World Bank assessment foresees a per caput income growth of only 0.9 percent per annum in sub-Saharan Africa, where most of the countries with very low DES are found.) This paper analyses the nature, conditions and implications of an achievable target for reducing undernutrition, given these considerations.
The additional amount of global food production required to meet the implied increased demand is small – for instance, 2 percent of global cereal consumption in the year 2010 for this component of the food basket. However, this modest global amount results from the fast growth of aggregate food supplies in several low-DES countries. Empirical evidence from the past demonstrates that a number of countries, over time spans of one to two decades, as is relevant here for comparison, have been able to achieve fast growth in food consumption and/or production, in most cases during periods of recovery from crises. Many of the countries with a need for accelerated growth of food supplies in the future start from crisis or near-crisis situations reflecting to a large extent the confluence of adverse factors (war or warlike conditions or natural, economic or policy disasters). Eventual recovery from such conditions can create the prerequisites for success in policies to improve food security at an accelerated pace.
The accelerated growth of food supplies in low-DES countries is analysed as requiring a combination of faster and more equitable growth of incomes, particularly more vigorous agricultural and rural development, as is fit for countries with a high dependence on agriculture, and special improvements in social support and food assistance. Domestic food production and net imports must contribute to further progress beyond that projected in the FAO study World agriculture: towards 2010 (WAT 2010) (FAO, 1995).
The paper concludes that it is feasible and realistic to target a reduction in the number of undernourished by the year 2010 to about half the level of the early 1990s, by ensuring that all countries that would not have otherwise reached the level of 2 700 Calories achieve accelerated growth of per caput food supplies at 1 percent per year, modulated to secure a minimum of 2 300 Calories in any country, and considering 2 700 Calories as a level that allows further progress through less inequality of access in priority over even higher supplies.
The target so defined would reduce undernutrition in the developing countries to some 440 million by the year 2010, and this number could be further diminished through more equitable access, in countries above the 2 700-Calorie target as well. But this should not be understood as implying that the baseline projection described in companion paper 1 will itself be achieved without determined and well-adjusted policies at all levels.
The causes of food insecurity are many and interrelated. Policy responses to the problem will vary among countries, but some generalizations as to the essential ingredients of success can be made (see WFS companion papers 1, 2 and 3). Among the factors that determine growth in food requirements, population, in combination with the different dietary patterns that prevail around the world, will be dominant until stabilization is reached (see WFS companion paper 4).
Peace in society and among nations is foremost. Governance, transparency, participation and progress in equality between men and women are factors of equity, efficiency and social stability. The full potential of private initiatives needs to be unleashed within an enabling policy environment that depends upon macroeconomic stability (see WFS companion paper 3).
The role of government in the provision of public goods – directly or indirectly through independent agents as required for effectiveness and efficiency – for infrastructure, research, education and health and in the creation of conditions for well-functioning markets for goods, services and factors, cannot be substituted (see WFS companion papers 3, 8, 9 and 10).
The alleviation of poverty and its eventual eradication are prime conditions for achieving sustainable food security at the household level. An economic policy conducive to job opportunities with fair rewards for work; a broadened and secure access to productive resources, especially land and water; and a social policy that develops human skills and capabilities, with particular attention to rural areas and people, are basic elements under any society’s conditions. For food insecurity to be abated, people-centred policies need to address the multifaceted causes and manifestations of malnutrition at the local and individual level, with a clear focus on women as the critical link in the nutrition complex (see WFS companion papers 2, 3, 5 and 6).
The number of food-insecure people is and will remain in the hundreds of millions for years. Food assistance, in forms that avoid the evils of wastage, dependency and economic unsustainability, will need to be provided through mobilization of governments, society and international solidarity. Preparedness for and timely reaction to emergencies remain a priority, with emphasis on the transition from relief to recovery and development (see WFS companion papers 5 and 13).
The vital role of trade, both domestic and international, in fostering food security needs to be recognized, while the flow of food from surplus to deficit areas and the exchange of goods and services to the mutual benefit of trading partners need to be facilitated. The social costs of trade-induced economic shocks to sectors or regions are nevertheless real: the vulnerable and food-insecure cannot be left without support for the sake of new opportunities created for others (see WFS companion paper 12).
Sustainable agricultural and rural development policies are essential for attaining universal food security; they are needed to make food production possible at affordable prices on the basis of environmentally sound management of natural resources. Balancing the priorities for environmentally sustainable and economically efficient rapid advances in food production from high-potential areas, with those of enabling agriculture-dependent populations in low-potential areas to enhance their on- and off-farm income-earning opportunities and access to food without degrading the resource base, is a necessity. The concepts of the new green revolution, the more efficient utilization and control of water, and the adaptation of the whole food chain infrastructure and management to the changes brought about by rapid urbanization in particular, have an essential role to play (see WFS companion papers 1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 11).
The aggregate resources for net investment in developing countries for primary agricultural production, the post-production sectors, rural infrastructure and human development, are not dramatically above past levels, but their regional distribution shows greatly increased needs in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, while gross investment has to increase in order to face the replacement of a growing capital stock (see WFS companion paper 10). The present paper shows that, in countries with currently very low levels of DES and high undernutrition, such investments would have to be some 20 to 30 percent above the levels required in the WAT2010 projections in order to sustain the accelerated agricultural growth needed in these countries so that rural poverty is reduced and food supplies are augmented as required by the still modest target of 2 300 to 2 700 Calories by the year 2010 as discussed above.
Policies are essential to create the conditions for private resources, the main source, to flow and produce yields as required. Public investment has, however, an indispensable role to play, and sectoral allocations must reflect the need to redress the costly neglect of agriculture and rural development in past priorities. Stronger, more efficient and refocused agricultural research is identified as a key priority for food production, poverty reduction and improved food security (see WFS companion papers 9 and 10).
