FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report - November 1997:

SOMALIA

CURRENT SITUATION

Planting of the 1998 secondary "Der" season, accounting for some 20 percent of the annual cereal production, has started. Early prospects are favourable. Above-average rains in the first dekad of October in the main growing areas provided adequate soil moisture for sowing and benefited early planted crops. Following three reduced harvests in a row and depletion of farmers’ stocks, the outturn of this crop season will be crucial to the food supply situation in the country. The 1997 main "Gu" cereal crop, harvested in August, remained at the below pre-war level of last year as a result of dry spells during the growing season, uncontrolled pests and diseases, as well as persistent insecurity in several areas.

The food supply remains tight throughout the country. Prices of sorghum and maize have declined after the harvest but remained substantially above last year’s level. Assuming a normal 1998 secondary "Der" crop, the cereal deficit for 1997/98 (August/July) is estimated at 247 000 tons from which 215 000 tons are expected to be covered commercially and 32 000 tons by food aid. However, increased fighting and insecurity in the important southern growing regions continue to disrupt the movement of domestic surpluses and imported goods, as well as the distribution of food aid. The food situation is reported to be particularly serious in districts of the central Hiran region, in the Bay, Bakool and North-west regions where the crop was sharply reduced. Child malnutrition is reported at high levels for some districts in southern areas.