International prices for oilseed products were subject to strong downward pressure during the 1998/99 season (October/September), mainly because of large harvests and abundant stocks. While the decline in prices for oilcakes and meals came to a halt at the beginning of the 1999/2000 season, prices for oils and fats - as measured by FAO's price index -dropped further, reaching their lowest level since 1992/93. The decline in oil prices has been caused by unusually sharp, but temporary, increases in palm oil production, as oil palm plantations in Asia recovered from the 1998 weather anomalies. However, towards the end of 1999, changes in market fundamentals caused prices for most oilseeds and products to move upward, a trend which is expected to continue for the remainder of the current season.
Production
After two seasons of significant expansion in global production of oilseeds, in 1999/2000 output of the seven major oilcrops is forecast to rise to 299 million tonnes, only slightly exceeding last season's level. The expected increase in production would be mainly on account of a record-breaking crop of rapeseed (for the second consecutive year) and of a recovery in global production of cottonseed and copra. Together, these increases would more than offset the decline anticipated in global soybean, sunflowerseed and groundnut production. The rise in rapeseed output is expected to occur in the main traditional producing countries, i.e. the EC, Canada, China and India, as well as in Australia, where production was expanded only recently. The recovery in cottonseed production would occur mostly in the United States and Pakistan, while in the Philippines and Indonesia copra production is expected to recover from the effects of adverse weather conditions in the last two years. Global soybean output is forecast to fall by more than 3 percent from last year's record level due to reduced crops in all major producing countries. Production is expected to drop in spite of further increases in area planted, as the average yield level is anticipated to fall. The drop in global sunflowerseed output would be mainly onaccount of reduced harvests in the EC and Argentina, while world groundnut production would be lower due to harvest shortfalls in China and India. In India, overall oilseed output is again expected to remain well below the record crop harvested in 1996/97. The on-going contraction in production - after a decade of steady expansion - is due to declining yield levels (caused partly by adverse weather and partly by reduced input use) as well as a significant erosion in domestic prices for oilcrops.
1994/95 1996/97 |
1997/98 |
1998/99 |
1999/00 |
|
Average |
Prelim. |
Forecast |
||
Million tonnes |
||||
Total |
281.1 |
301.7 |
308.0 |
309.1 |
Soybeans |
132.3 |
158.5 |
159.4 |
154.2 |
Sunflowerseed |
28.8 |
24.4 |
27.3 |
26.4 |
Groundnut |
30.0 |
29.5 |
31.9 |
30.6 |
Cottonseed |
38.1 |
36.0 |
33.4 |
34.9 |
Rapeseed |
32.5 |
33.8 |
36.3 |
41.9 |
Copra |
5.3 |
5.1 |
4.1 |
5.2 |
Palm kernels |
5.1 |
5.1 |
5.7 |
5.8 |
Others |
9.1 |
9.4 |
9.9 |
10.2 |
1 The split years bring together northern hemisphere annual crops harvested in the latter part of the first year shown, with southern hemisphere annual crops harvested in the early part of the second year shown. For tree crops, which are produced throughout the year, calendar year production for the second year shown is used. |
||||
Based on the above crop estimates, world production of edible and soap oils and fats in 1999/2000 is forecast to exceed last season's level by about 3 percent (i.e. at a rate close to that recorded in the last four seasons), reaching a record 114 million tonnes. The expansion in total output would be largely on account of the sharp increase in global rapeseed oil production, but also total output of tropical oils is forecast to reach near-record or record levels (the case of coconut oil and palm oil respectively), as plantations have been recovering from the effects of adverse weather conditions in the previous two years. Soft oils2 are estimated to continue to account for roughly 54 percent of total output of edible/soap oils and fats (41 of which will be soybean oil), while palm oil is likely to increase its share to 19 percent. The anticipated rise in total production and above average stocks at the beginning of the season would cause global supplies of oils and fats to rise by more than 3 percent to 127 million tonnes. At 75.8 million tonnes, world aggregate production of oilcakes and meals expressed in protein equivalent is forecast to fall slightly short of last season's record level. While production of soy, sunflower and groundnut meal is predicted to decrease, the output of rape, cotton, copra and fish meal is expected to rise. Global supplies of meals and cakes in 1999/2000 should increase marginally compared to last season due to higher inventories at the beginning of the current season.
1994/95 1996/97 Average |
1997/98 |
1998/99 Prel. |
1999/00 F'cast |
|||||
Million tonnes |
||||||||
WORLD TOTALS |
||||||||
All fats and oils2 |
99.2 |
104.6 |
110.3 |
113.9 |
||||
Soybean |
21.1 |
25.6 |
25.7 |
24.9 |
||||
Sunflowerseed |
9.1 |
8.9 |
10.0 |
9.7 |
||||
Groundnut |
5.1 |
5.1 |
5.5 |
5.2 |
||||
Cottonseed |
3.6 |
3.6 |
3.5 |
3.7 |
||||
Rapeseed |
11.0 |
11.6 |
12.7 |
14.7 |
||||
Olive |
2.2 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
||||
Coconut |
3.3 |
2.9 |
2.6 |
3.3 |
||||
Palm kernel |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
||||
Palm |
17.1 |
17.2 |
20.4 |
21.2 |
||||
Marine |
1.3 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
||||
REGIONAL TOTALS |
||||||||
Africa |
5.3 |
5.4 |
5.8 |
5.7 |
||||
Nigeria |
1.5 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
||||
Asia |
40.0 |
39.3 |
42.2 |
44.0 |
||||
China |
9.5 |
9.8 |
9.6 |
10.1 |
||||
India |
8.7 |
8.1 |
8.2 |
7.8 |
||||
Indonesia |
6.5 |
6.4 |
7.3 |
8.5 |
||||
Malaysia |
9.5 |
9.4 |
11.6 |
11.6 |
||||
Philippines |
1.5 |
1.6 |
0.9 |
1.4 |
||||
South America |
12.6 |
15.0 |
15.3 |
14.8 |
||||
Argentina |
4.8 |
6.2 |
6.5 |
6.0 |
||||
Brazil |
5.4 |
6.9 |
6.5 |
6.6 |
||||
North America and |
||||||||
the Caribbean |
22.6 |
24.3 |
25.5 |
25.7 |
||||
Canada |
3.3 |
3.4 |
4.0 |
4.5 |
||||
United States |
18.4 |
19.9 |
20.5 |
20.2 |
||||
Europe |
13.3 |
15.1 |
15.6 |
17.2 |
||||
EC |
10.3 |
12.4 |
12.5 |
13.7 |
||||
Eastern Europe |
2.7 |
2.4 |
2.8 |
3.2 |
||||
CIS |
3.7 |
3.4 |
3.4 |
3.9 |
||||
Russian Federation |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
||||
Oceania |
1.7 |
2.0 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
||||
Australia |
0.9 |
1.1 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
||||
1 The output of vegetable
oils in a given year is not based on actual crushings but is calculated by applying
extraction rates to the proportion of the oilseed crop that is estimated to be available
for crushing, regardless of whether it is crushed in producing countries or exported in
unprocessed form for crushing in importing countries, or put into stock. |
||||||||
1994/95 1996/97 Average |
1997/98 |
1998/99 Prel. |
1999/00 F'cast |
|
Million tonnes |
||||
WORLD TOTALS |
||||
All fats and oils2 |
40.6 |
45.0 |
46.6 |
48.5 |
Soybean |
11.8 |
14.5 |
14.2 |
13.8 |
Sunflowerseed |
4.3 |
4.7 |
4.8 |
4.8 |
Groundnut |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
Cottonseed |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
Rapeseed |
3.7 |
3.8 |
4.4 |
5.2 |
Olive |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
Coconut |
1.8 |
2.2 |
1.4 |
1.9 |
Palm kernel |
1.0 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
Palm |
10.8 |
11.3 |
13.2 |
14.0 |
Marine |
0.7 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
REGIONAL TOTALS |
||||
Africa |
0.8 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
Asia |
15.1 |
16.3 |
16.6 |
17.9 |
China |
0.9 |
0.8 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
Indonesia |
3.0 |
3.1 |
3.5 |
4.5 |
Malaysia |
7.9 |
8.5 |
9.9 |
9.9 |
Philippines |
1.1 |
1.3 |
0.6 |
0.9 |
South America |
7.5 |
9.1 |
10.2 |
9.7 |
Argentina |
4.0 |
5.3 |
5.6 |
5.3 |
Brazil |
2.4 |
3.1 |
3.4 |
3.4 |
North America and |
||||
the Caribbean |
10.7 |
10.9 |
10.8 |
11.3 |
Canada |
2.6 |
2.6 |
2.9 |
3.3 |
United States |
8.0 |
8.1 |
7.7 |
7.9 |
Europe |
3.9 |
4.8 |
4.9 |
5.3 |
EC |
3.0 |
3.9 |
3.9 |
4.2 |
Eastern Europe |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
CIS |
1.1 |
1.3 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
Oceania |
1.5 |
1.6 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
Australia |
0.6 |
0.8 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
1 Including oil
equivalent of oilseeds; excluding main re-exports of oil from imported oilseeds. |
||||
1994/95 1996/97 Average |
1997/98 |
1998/99 Prel. |
1999/00 F'cast |
|||
| Million tonnes | ||||||
WORLD TOTALS |
||||||
All fats and oils |
40.2 |
45.0 |
46.5 |
48.5 |
||
REGIONAL TOTALS |
||||||
Africa |
3.9 |
4.2 |
4.1 |
4.4 |
||
Egypt |
0.9 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
||
Asia |
17.6 |
19.8 |
22.1 |
23.5 |
||
China |
3.8 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
5.2 |
||
India |
1.5 |
2.3 |
4.6 |
4.9 |
||
Pakistan |
1.3 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
||
Turkey |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
||
South America |
1.7 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
||
North America and |
||||||
the Caribbean |
4.4 |
5.3 |
5.0 |
5.3 |
||
Mexico |
1.7 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
||
United States |
1.7 |
2.2 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
||
Europe |
11.1 |
12.2 |
11.6 |
11.9 |
||
EC |
9.3 |
9.8 |
10.0 |
10.2 |
||
Eastern Europe |
0.7 |
1.2 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
||
CIS |
1.0 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
||
Oceania |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
||
1 Including the oil equivalent of oilseeds. |
||||||
1994/95 1996/97 Average |
1997/98 |
1998/99 |
1999/005 |
|
FAO price index 1990-92=100 1 |
||||
All fats and oils1 |
143 |
155 |
127 |
104 |
Edible/soap |
142 |
154 |
125 |
101 |
Soft2 |
146 |
161 |
125 |
101 |
Oilcakes and meals3 |
118 |
116 |
82 |
87 |
Oilseeds4 |
116 |
109 |
89 |
82 |
1 Fats and oils index
excludes butter and lard. |
||||
1994/95 1996/97 Average |
1997/98 |
1998/99 Prel. |
1999/00 F'cast |
|||||
Million tonnes(protein equivalent) |
||||||||
WORLD TOTALS |
||||||||
Meals and cakes2 |
66.1 |
74.0 |
76.3 |
75.8 |
||||
Soybean |
41.1 |
49.9 |
50.2 |
48.7 |
||||
Sunflowerseed |
3.9 |
3.9 |
4.4 |
4.2 |
||||
Groundnut |
3.4 |
3.2 |
3.5 |
3.2 |
||||
Cottonseed |
4.9 |
5.0 |
4.8 |
5.0 |
||||
Rapeseed |
6.0 |
6.3 |
6.7 |
7.8 |
||||
Copra |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
||||
Palm kernel |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
||||
Fishmeal |
4.3 |
3.2 |
4.1 |
4.3 |
||||
REGIONAL TOTALS |
||||||||
Africa |
1.6 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
||||
Asia |
15.7 |
15.7 |
16.3 |
16.0 |
||||
China |
6.8 |
7.0 |
7.1 |
7.0 |
||||
India |
5.5 |
5.2 |
5.4 |
5.0 |
||||
Indonesia |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
||||
Pakistan |
0.6 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
||||
Malaysia |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
||||
South America |
17.4 |
21.6 |
21.9 |
21.5 |
||||
Argentina |
5.5 |
8.1 |
8.2 |
7.9 |
||||
Brazil |
8.6 |
11.1 |
10.5 |
10.6 |
||||
Chile |
0.9 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
||||
Paraguay |
0.8 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
||||
Peru |
1.2 |
0.5 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
||||
N. America/Caribbean |
25.4 |
28.5 |
29.3 |
28.9 |
||||
Canada |
1.8 |
2.0 |
2.3 |
2.5 |
||||
United States |
23.0 |
26.0 |
26.5 |
26.0 |
||||
Europe |
4.2 |
4.5 |
4.8 |
5.0 |
||||
EC |
3.0 |
3.4 |
3.5 |
3.6 |
||||
Eastern Europe |
0.9 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
||||
CIS |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
||||
Oceania |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
||||
1 The output of
vegetable oilmeals in a given year is not based on actual crushings but is calculated by
applying extraction rates to the proportion of the oilseed crop that is estimated to be
available for crushing regardless of whether it is crushed in producing countries or
exported in unprocessed form for crushing in importing countries, or put into stocks. |
||||||||
1994/95 1996/97 Average |
1997/98 |
1998/99 Prel. |
1999/00 F'cast |
||||
Million tonnes (protein equivalent) |
|||||||
WORLD TOTALS |
|||||||
Meals and cakes 2 |
33.3 |
36.2 |
38.3 |
38.9 |
|||
Soybean |
25.0 |
28.9 |
30.0 |
30.1 |
|||
Sunflowerseed |
1.6 |
1.7 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
|||
Groundnut |
0.6 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
|||
Cottonseed |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
|||
Rapeseed |
1.7 |
1.6 |
2.0 |
2.4 |
|||
Copra |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
|||
Palm kernel |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|||
Fishmeal |
2.6 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
2.1 |
|||
REGIONAL TOTALS |
|||||||
Africa |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
|||
Asia |
3.3 |
2.9 |
3.1 |
2.9 |
|||
China |
0.8 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
|||
India |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.3 |
|||
Indonesia |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|||
Malaysia |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
|||
Philippines |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|||
South America |
14.9 |
16.3 |
19.1 |
18.7 |
|||
Argentina |
5.2 |
6.6 |
8.1 |
7.9 |
|||
Brazil |
6.7 |
7.7 |
8.3 |
8.2 |
|||
Chile |
0.7 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
|||
Paraguay |
0.8 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
|||
Peru |
1.2 |
0.4 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
|||
N. America/Caribbean |
12.8 |
14.0 |
12.7 |
13.9 |
|||
Canada |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
|||
United States |
11.3 |
12.4 |
11.0 |
11.9 |
|||
Europe |
1.4 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
|||
EC |
0.7 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
|||
Eastern Europe |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
|||
CIS |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|||
Oceania |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
|||
1 Including the cake
equivalent of oilseeds; excluding main re-exports of cake from imported oilseeds. |
|||||||
1994/95 1996/97 Average |
1997/98 |
1998/99 Prel. |
1999/00 F'cast |
|
Million tonnes (protein equivalent) |
||||
WORLD TOTALS |
||||
Meals and cakes |
33.1 |
36.2 |
38.3 |
38.9 |
REGIONAL TOTALS |
||||
Africa |
1.1 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
Egypt |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
Asia |
11.1 |
12.3 |
12.8 |
13.7 |
China |
1.7 |
3.1 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
Indonesia |
0.8 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
Malaysia |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
Turkey |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
South America |
1.4 |
1.5 |
1.9 |
1.7 |
Brazil |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
N. America/Caribbean |
2.7 |
3.4 |
3.3 |
3.5 |
Canada |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
Mexico |
1.2 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
United States |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
Europe |
16.2 |
17.2 |
18.2 |
18.0 |
EC |
14.6 |
15.2 |
16.4 |
16.3 |
Eastern Europe |
1.1 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
CIS |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
Oceania |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
1 Including the oilcake equivalent of oilseeds. |
||||
1 Note on methodology: Almost the entire volume of oilcrops harvested world-wide is crushed in order to obtain oils and fats for human nutrition or industrial purposes and cakes and meals used as feed ingredients. Therefore, rather than referring to oilseeds, the analysis of the market situation is mainly undertaken in terms of oils/fats and cakes/meals. Hence, production data for oils (cakes) derived from oilseeds refer to the oil (cake) equivalent of the current production of the relevant oilseeds, while the data on trade in and stocks of oils and cakes refer to the sum of trade in and stocks of oils and cakes plus the oil and cake equivalent of oilseed trade and stocks.
2 This group of oils comprises soybean, rapeseed, sunflowerseed, cottonseed, groundnut and olive oil.
