Prospects for the 2001 winter grains, for harvest in May/June, remain poor mainly due to adverse weather and persistent insecurity that resulted in yield losses and large population displacements.
The 2000 drought devastated crops and livestock across the country. Total cereal production was an estimated 1.82 million tonnes (with rice in paddy form), about 44 percent and 53 percent below the 1999 and 1998 crops respectively. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission is planned to visit the country from end-April to assess overall food supply conditions and estimate cereal import requirements in 2001/02 (July/June), including food aid.
The food situation is tight for a large number of displaced people. In 2000, WFP distributed some 161 000 tonnes of food to 3.3 million worst affected people, compared to 82 631 tonnes in the previous year. An Emergency Operation was jointly approved in February 2001 by FAO and WFP for food assistance to 3.8 million drought affected people, worth US$76.6 million for a period of one year (April 2001/March 2002).
The outlook for the 2001 cereal harvest has improved with good rains in March, which helped replenish soil moisture and irrigation reserves. However, rains in the coming months remain crucial if a good harvest is to be achieved. Persistent drought in 2000 reduced grain production by 25 percent to 225 000 tonnes and has resulted in a shortage of seed. As a result the area sown to winter crops (mainly wheat) for harvest in 2001 has fallen by 30 percent to 70 000 hectares. It is hoped to increase the areas sown to spring cereals to 115 000 hectares. Snowfall this winter has been well below normal but rains have now started to fall. Satellite imagery indicates limited areas of better crop development than last year (in parts of Kotaik, Vaiots Dzor and southern Siunik). The food supply outlook in 2001 will depend crucially on increasing the areas sown to loweryielding spring grains, and the mobilization of seed potato to enable farmers to plant this staple crop. Animal feed and pastures were also affected by the drought. Aggregate meat and egg production has increased by nearly a fifth in 2000 while milk production declined marginally.
The cereal import requirement in 2000/01 (July/June) is estimated at 515 000 tonnes including 458 000 tonnes of wheat, and 44 000 tonnes of feedgrains to provide survival rations for livestock, a major source of protein and income for rural households. The import requirement is well above average and includes 146 000 tonnes of food aid. Cereal imports in the first 8 months of the marketing year amount to some 239 000 tonnes of cereals and include 78 000 tonnes of food aid.
Up to 68 percent of the population are destitute, poor or close to the poverty line. This finding is based on survey data including the systematic study of households undertaken with World Bank sponsorship. The survey found that 55 percent of the population is either poor or destitute. Poor households are defined as having a per capita level of consumption below the poverty line (a minimum basket of food and consumer goods), and destitute households as having a per capital level of consumption below the food line (a minimum basket of food goods), with the two lines set at 11 735 drams (US$21.5) and 7 194 drams. Some 32.14 percent of the population are in poverty and 22.91 percent are destitute; the corresponding figures for households are 30.53 percent and 19.14 percent respectively. Moreover, some households are regarded as potentially poor, as their incomes are in the range 12 000-12 500 drams, only narrowly exceeding the poverty line. As a result, up to 68 percent of the population could need some form of poverty- related social protection. The survey also revealed that the real level of unemployment is 27.3 percent, well above the official estimate of 10.0-11.5 percent. The average monthly salary is 20 157 drams, or less than twice the poverty level, and some 17 percent of the workforce earn too little to secure an income above the food line. However, wages are not the main source of monetary income: they comprise only 24.6 percent of incomes, whereas sales of agricultural production account for 32.1 percent, revenues from selfemployment for 10.6 percent, and state pensions and allowances for 9.3 percent. Some 19.3 percent of incomes are transfers from relatives, including 12.8 percent from relatives living abroad (this item alone is more significant than state pensions and allowances). Only 0.1 percent of incomes are related to property (i.e., leases, interest, dividends etc), highlighting the limited impact of privatisation on earning patterns. There is a high degree of income inequality. The income level among the wealthiest 20 percent of the population is 32.2 times that of the poorest 20 percent. The survey also confirmed that at least 620 000 A rmenians (and possibly up to 1 million), out of an official population of 3.8 million, are currently abroad seeking alternative sources of income. Most of those abroad are of working age, and two- thirds are men.
Debilitating political, economic and social problems over the past decade have resulted in widespread un- and underemployment and food insecurity. Some 15 percent of rural children face chronic malnutrition even under normal circumstances. WFP plans to provide targeted emergency food assistance to an estimated 297 000 subsistence farmers and other vulnerable households with 22 480 tonnes of iron- fortified wheat, vegetable oil and pulses from 1 November 2000 until 1 July 2001. The proposed Emergency Operation (EMOP) will be fully integrated with the ongoing Protracted Relief and Rehabilitation Operation (PRRO), also effective until June 2001, which targets another 170 000 beneficiaries. The combined outstanding tonnage of the planned EMOP and the ongoing PRRO amounts to more than 28 000 tonnes up to mid- 2001.
The outlook for the 2001 cereal harvest is somewhat uncertain, as winter precipitation has ranged from 30-80 percent of normal over the country and is also below normal in the catchment areas of the neighbouring countries. Following last years summer drought, irrigation water reserves are low and the final outcome of this year's harvest will depend crucially on rains in the coming months and snowmelt. Emergency works carried out this winter (deepening irrigation canals etc.) could help to maintain production levels of remunerative crops. Satellite imagery indicates more robust crop development, better than at the corresponding stage last year, so far.
The area sown to winter crops has increased further to 650 000 hectares, including 523 000 hectares sown to wheat and 122 000 hectares to winter barley. The first stage of land privatization has virtually been completed. The areas sown to winter cereals in the last two years have increased sharply as farmers switch to winter grains which mature in June, before the summer heat and peak water needs. The shift also reflects difficulties in marketing cash crops such as grapes and cotton.
The final official estimate of the 2000 grain harvest is 1.5 million tonnes, including 1.148 million tonnes of wheat, 209 000 tonnes of barley, 104 000 tonnes of maize. Rice production, which is being expanded, increased sharply to 22 000 tonnes and pulse output was 13 000 tonnes. The 2000 winter grain crop by and large escaped drought damage but the yield of spring-sown crops (potatoes, vegetables, cotton, fodder and fruit trees) was affected.
Following the well above average harvest, the cereal import requirement is expected to decline somewhat. However, grainfeed for animals is likely to rise, as fodder supplies are low and domestic farmers face import competition. The bulk of the cereal import requirements will be covered commercially, though vulnerable groups, including the internally displaced, still need targeted food assistance. WFP continues to support 485 000 beneficiaries through a 3year Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation which started in July 1999. Total food commodities committed for the life of the project amount to 47 880 tonnes of food aid.
Rabi (winter) wheat and irrigated Boro rice are currently the main crops in the ground. Wheat is planted in November/December for harvest from late March, whilst the boro crop is planted from November through January for harvesting from April. This year's wheat crop is forecast at 2 million tonnes, up from last year's 1.84 million tonnes. The country produced a record wheat crop of around 2 million tonnes in 1999 and has averaged around 1.68 million tonnes in the last five years.
Rice is the most important cereal crop accounting for 73 percent of total cropped area. Boro rice production is expected to reach last years record production of 11 million tonnes. If this level materialises, 2000/01 milled rice production is projected at a around 24 million tonnes, a record. Boro rice accounts for approximately 45 percent of aggregate rice production annually, the monsoon (Aman) a further 45 percent, whilst roughly 10 percent comes from the third Aus crop.
Following devastating monsoon floods in 1998, the food supply situation in has improved considerably, due largely to consecutive record grain crops. At the end of February, there was a total of 1.06 million tonnes of grain in stocks including some 733 000 tonnes of rice and 322 000 tonnes of wheat in the Public Food Grain Distribution System.
During the 2000 wet season, the country was affected by one of the worst floods in recent history, resulting in large scale destruction of crops, principally rice, infrastructure, property and lines of communication. An estimated 3 million people were affected, half a million displaced from homes and almost four hundred died.
An assessment of the food supply situation in the aftermath of the floods by an FAO/WFP mission found that the floods reduced overall wet season rice production on some 400 000 hectares. Notwithstanding the loss due to floods, however, rainfall was generally above average, as a result of which the overall season was favourable and yields were above 1999, which was a bumper year. Harvesting of wet season and flood recession rice has been completed. Latest estimates from the Ministry of Agriculture of 2000 wet season paddy production is 3.2 million tonnes, around 100 000 tonnes lower than official estimates for wet season output in 1999. Dry season production is forecast at 800 000 tonnes, bringing overall production for 2000/01 to around 4 million tonnes.
Despite a satisfactory rice supply/demand situation from a national perspective, last year's floods made a large number of people, who are normally on the borderline of subsistence and food insecurity, more vulnerable to food shortages. In general, there are three broad categories of "food insecure" people in the country. The largest group currently are the chronically food insecure, comprising approximately 2 million people. The second group are the "vulnerable groups" (handicapped, disease victims, orphans, etc.), which accounts for a further 500-600 000 people. The third group are the "transitory food insecure", due to factors such as fires, floods, and droughts, and would normally account for some 50 000 people. This year, however, due to the exceptional flooding, the number classified as transient food insecure is estimated at 3 million people. Of these, vulnerability analysis indicates that some 500 000 people would be classified as the most food insecure. Given the magnitude of the problem, this group could become chronically food insecure, if they have to resort to extreme coping strategies such as sale of land, incurring high interest debt, etc, to meet the household food deficit resulting from flood damage. However, if targeted food assistance is provided, almost all this group can be expected to recover by the next harvest. To cover the food needs of the half a million people who are most at risk, the mission advocates additional food assistance for four months. Part of the requirement (one and half months) will be met through a current Emergency Operation (EMOP 6296.00), whilst an additional 16 000 tonnes will be required to meet the remainder of food needs.
During the first half of March, in eastern parts, temperatures 2-3 degrees Celsius above normal favoured developing winter wheat, whilst showers along the Yangtze river basin increased moisture supplies for winter crops. Although seasonably light rain was received in southern parts of the country, overall rainfall has been below normal.
Winter snow in January/February benefited soil moisture levels, favouring the winter wheat crop in main producing areas. Winter wheat production in 2001 is forecast at around 92.5 million tonnes, over a million tonnes higher than earlier forecast. Total winter and spring wheat production this year is currently projected at around 100.5 million tonnes, some 500 000 tonnes below last year's reduced crop. Winter wheat accounts for most of the country's wheat produced annually. Due to declining support prices for staples, the area under wheat declined further for the 2000/01season as farmers continue to switch to other more lucrative crops. The area planted is estimated at around 23 million hectares, 1.17 million hectares or and almost 5 percent below 1999.
Prospects for the 2001 wheat and barley crops, to be harvested from May/June, seem to be about average. The aggregate area sown was about 61 000 hectares, similar to the previous year. Production of cereals in 2000, mainly barley, is estimated at 101 000 tonnes, about 1 percent below the average for the previous five years.
Imports of wheat in 2000/01 (May/April) are forecast at 95 000 tonnes, while aggregate imports of barley and maize are forecast at some 540 000 tonnes, unchanged from last year.
Harvesting of the main rice and maize crops, planted in November/December will commence shortly. Despite disruption to the agriculture sector due to civil disturbances in 1999, agriculture recovery continues with improvements in access and marketing. Last year, rice and maize production were estimated by FAO at around 30 500 tonnes (milled) and 94 000 tonnes respectively.
The outlook for the 2001 harvest has improved with good rains in March which helped to replenish soil moisture and irrigation reserves. However, as precipitation during the winter months has again been well below average, rainfall in the coming months will be the determining factor in this year's harvest. There are indications that the area sown to winter wheat may not have been fallen as sharply as originally reported. However, many plantings were delayed and many farmers used whatever seed they could mobilize. It is hoped to mobilize enough seed to increase the area sown in the spring to potatoes and maize, to offset any potential reduction in wheat output. Dividing the country in two halves lengthwise, satellite imagery indicates that crop development to date is satisfactory in the cropped areas of southern half, and importantly, better in parts of Khakheti, a major wheat producing area.
The aggregate 2000 cereal harvest is less than 400 000 tonnes, nearly half that achieved in 1999 and 40 percent below average due to drought and the poor state of the irrigation system. Output of potatoes, other basic foodcrops and fodder is also down, negatively affecting livestock production.
With a minimum national cereal consumption requirement (including food, feed seed, losses) estimated at 1.1 million tonnes, Georgia's cereal import requirement in 2000/01 is estimated at 748 000 tonnes (620 000 tonnes of wheat, 88 000 tonnes of maize, 35 000 tonnes of barley and 5 000 tonnes of rice). Registered cereal imports between July and December 2000 have amounted to 104 000 tonnes, but substantial volumes enter informally. Against the estimated food aid requirement of 311 000 tonnes, confirmed pledges to date amount to 85 400 tonnes. Food aid deliveries of wheat are proving difficult to market as cheaper supplies are being sourced in the CIS.
WFP appealed last year for almost 66 000 tonnes to cover the basic needs of 696 000 most vulnerable drought-affected victims until the next main harvest, for a period of eight months (November-June). Response to this appeal has been slow and limited; the first commodity consignments only reached Georgia in January. Distributions started late in February and by the end of March 270 000 beneficiaries received a twomonth ration. Based on the confirmed pledges and quantities received and expected to date, WFP plans to complete the first round of distribution to some 270 000 additional beneficiaries early in April and to start a second one t some 540 000 beneficiaries by mid- April. By the end of March pledges covered only 35 percent of the total amount requested (23 000 tonnes against 66 000 tonnes in the appeal) and only 6 650 tonnes had reached the country.
Due to drought in some of the country's main wheat producing states, the wheat crop, to be harvested in the next few weeks, is expected to be considerably down, some 5 to 7 million tonnes from last year's record crop of 75.5 million tonnes. The area under wheat is reported to have declined by some three million hectares, from 27.4 million hectares in 2000, principally in rain fed states like Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan and parts of Maharashtra. However, the crop in large surplus wheat growing states of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh is generally satisfactory, though unlikely to match last year's record output. While the season has been generally free from pests and diseases, fertilizer consumption has declined marginally due to drought conditions. As a result of this decline, overall Rabi grain production is likely to fall to around 95-96 million tonnes this year, compared to 104 million tonnes in 1999/2000. The overall food grain production target for the 2000/01 marketing year is 212 million tonnes.
Earlier, the worst earthquake in fifty years ravaged the western state of Gujarat exacerbating existing food and water problems due to the second drought in succession. Ground water tables had already fallen appreciably, whilst many people had started to migrate. The country has had to endure a succession of natural disasters last year, including earlier drought and severe flooding in a number of states during the last monsoon season, which left many dead and thousands homeless.
At the end of the current marketing year, wheat stocks are projected at more than 20 million tonnes, some 40 percent above last year and five times the desired level. This is attributed to increases in farm support price (resulting in higher procurement), higher sales prices of wheat and rice through the PDS (resulting in low offtake) and weak world prices (limiting export opportunities). Government rice stocks have also increased significantly due to good harvests in recent years and increasing procurement.
Seasonal rain in March further improved soil moisture for main season rice in the main producing province of Java, but resulted in localized flooding in parts. The main rice crop is planted in the period November to January for harvest from April.
Paddy production for the 2000 calendar year was around 51 million tonnes, some 2 percent above last year and some 4 percent above the fiveyear average. Higher production is attributed to a long wet season and only minor incidences of pests and disease. The area harvested remained around an average 11.5 million hectares.
The overall food situation in the country continues to stabilise, following the economic crisis in 1997/1998, which was also compounded by a poor agricultural year due to El Ni�o. As a result of good domestic production and ample stocks, Indonesia, the world's leading rice importer, has announced that it would not import rice in 2001. However, concerns persist for the food and humanitarian situation in parts of the country affected by violent civil disturbances.
IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF (21 March)
Light rain was received in the main winter wheat growing areas in the western and northeastern parts of the country during the first two dekads of March. Wheat is normally planted in September/October and harvested in April/May. Rain fed barley which is essential for livestock feed is also planted from September onward for harvest in March.
In 2000 the affect of two successive years of drought seriously affected agriculture and livestock production. The drought was the worst since 1964 and affected an estimated 37 million people or over 50 percent of the population. Consequently 2000 wheat production is estimated to have fallen to around 8 million tonnes, some 700 000 tonnes lower than the already drought reduced crop in 1999 and almost 2 million tonnes below the five year average.
Prospects for the 2001 cereal harvest in May/June remain uncertain. Lingering effects of two consecutive years of severe drought and inadequate availability of essential agricultural inputs are constraining production.
An FAO/WFP/WHO Food Supply and Nutrition Assessment Mission in May 2000 found that in the most affected centre/south areas, not only were the plantings reduced, but also some 75 percent of the cropped area under wheat and barley was heavily damaged and mostly used as grazing for livestock. Cereal yields were reduced to all time low levels. As a result, total cereal production in 2000, estimated at some 796 000 tonnes, is about 47 percent below 1999 and 64 percent below the average of the past 5 years.
In December 2000, the UN Security Council approved the ninth phase of the SCR 986 "Oil-forfood" programme, from January to June, to buy food, medicine and health supplies, and for emergency repairs to infrastructure. In March 2000, the oil spare parts allocation was doubled from US$300 million to US$600 million to help the replacement of ageing equipment. Cereal imports under the oil for-food deal have led to significant improvements in the food supply situation. However, long delays in the flow of food imports continue to be reported. Also, despite significant increases in the food ration since SCR 986, child malnutrition rates in the centre/south of the country do not appear to have improved significantly and nutritional problems remain serious and widespread. The existing food rations do not provide a nutritionally adequate and varied diet which is lacking in vegetables, fruit, and animal products and is therefore deficient in micro-nutrients.
The prospects for the 2001 wheat and barley crops, to be harvested from April/May, are favourable, reflecting favourable rains during the growing season. Domestic production of wheat in normal years covers less than onefifth of total requirement, the rest being imported commercially.
Production of the wheat crop in 2000 was estimated at 80 000 tonnes, more than double the previous year's drought affected crop, but below average. Imports of cereals in 2000/01 (July/June) are forecast at some 2.9 million tonnes.
Since 1995, as part of the country rice area adjustment programme, area has declined by some 16 percent. As a consequence domestic (milled) rice production has declined from some 11 million tonnes in 1994 to an average of around 9 million tonnes in the last five years.
The prospects for the 2001 wheat and barley crops, for harvest in May/June, remain uncertain due to the lingering effects of two consecutive years of severe drought and erratic rainfall during the current season. In 2000, aggregate output of wheat and barley, estimated at 42 000 tonnes, was more than double the previous year's output, but still about 54 percent below average. The livestock sector was also seriously affected, particularly small scale sheep herders.
However, despite the serious impact of the drought on rainfed crops and livestock, vegetable production from the irrigated Jordan Valley has increased substantially. As a result, vegetable prices plummeted affecting farmers incomes. Lack of adequate processing facilities and export markets are major constraints.
An FAO Mission which visited the country in September 2000 identified priority needs for assistance to mitigate the impact of drought on agricultural production. Accordingly, an appeal for US$ 13.5 million was launched, on 21 December 2000, to provide seeds and other inputs for the 2001 cropping season, to assist in the distribution of animal feed and health services, and to support forest and range land reserves.
The bulk of cereals are sown as of May, with winter crops accounting for only 0.5 million hectares. The spring planting target is 11.7 million hectares to be sown to cereals and output is targeted at 11.6 million tonnes.
The 2000 official estimate of the 2000 harvest is 11.6 million tonnes of cereals and pulses, in cleaned weight, including 9.1 million tonnes of wheat. This is less than the previous year's bumper harvest of 14 million tonnes but will still allow the country to cover domestic requirements and export between 4-5 million tonnes of cereals. Cereal exports have totalled 2.3 million tonnes in the first six months of the 2000/01 marketing year.
The country exported nearly 7 million tonnes of cereals in 1999/2000 including 6 million tonnes of wheat, mainly to other CIS countries.
KOREA, DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF* (23 March)
There are renewed concerns regarding the food supply situation in the county following the widespread effects of the coldest winter in decades. In mid-January temperatures are reported to have fallen to the lowest levels recorded in 50 years. The cold weather conditions continued almost to the last dekad of February, after which temperatures increased to allow land preparations for double cropping. The earlier start to the season is in contrast to 2000 when cold temperatures prevented agricultural operations till mid- March. Due to the very cold conditions this year, the incidence of pests is likely to be lower. However, given erratic climatic conditions generally in the Asia region the situation still remains uncertain.
The food supply situation for the majority of the population still remains extremely difficult, especially as they have already had to endure years of serious food shortages. Cereal provision through domestic resources is reported to have ceased in January with supplies currently only through bilateral food assistance.
Last November, an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission, assessed domestic grain availability, in cereal equivalent, for the 2000/01 marketing year at 2.92 million tonnes compared to grain demand for food and other utilisation needs of 4.79 million tonnes. The cereal import requirement, therefore, was estimated at 1.87 million tonnes, of which commercial imports were anticipated to cover 200 000 tonnes, whilst a further 810 000 tonnes of the import requirement has been pledged as food assistance through WFP and 500 000 tonnes more through bilateral concessional imports. Taking these into account, the uncovered import requirement is estimated at 360 000 tonnes, which needs to be covered by additional food assistance in order for the country to meet minimum food needs until end-October 2001.
Prospects of economic recovery and growth, in the aftermath of the financial crisis in Asia, continue to improve signalling stronger demand for grains for food and feed. Wheat and maize are almost entirely imported, whilst the country on average produces around 5 million tonnes of rice (milled) per annum, during the main season which extends from around May to October. In general, the number of productive farms and rice acreage is declining in the country as more land is made available to infrastructure and urban development. Any future expansion will come mainly from marginal and reclaimed land, including land subject to flooding.
The 2001 grain production target is 1.7 million tonnes. Greened crops in the lower reaches of the SyrDarya valley (Osh, Djalabad) are in a better condition than at the corresponding time last year, but satellite imagery indicates that much of the country is still covered by snow or crops have not yet come out of dormancy. A cold winter and heavy snows are helping to recharge irrigation water supplies. The 2000 grain harvest is now officially estimated at 1.57 million tonnes including 1.04 million tonnes of wheat. This is somewhat less than the previous year's harvest (1.63 million tonnes) and below target, reflecting crop losses due to dry weather and early snows.
The overall food supply situation remains satisfactory and indeed the country exports cereals to neighbouring Tajikistan and Afghanistan. However, a significant proportion of the population is poor, and access to adequate food is a problem for the large number of poor. The country also imports wheat in part due to the demand for quality wheat, to supplement the State Security Reserve (via food aid deliveries), and due to poor internal communications.
In September 2000, flooding which also affected neighbouring Cambodia and Vietnam devastated monsoon rice crops in central and southern parts of Lao PDR. The worst affected provinces were in the country's rice basket and included Bolikhamsay, Khammuan and Savannakhet. In addition, rice production was also seriously damaged in Attapeau and Champassak, which are relatively more food insecure. In view of flood damage and concerns over developing food shortages, an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission was requested by the Government and fielded to the country from 10 to 24 February. The main objectives of the Mission were to assess the overall rice supply situation and possible need for food aid for the 2001 marketing year (January/December). The findings of the Mission are based on discussion with Government and UN agencies and on field visits to affected rice producing provinces including Bolikhamsay, Khammuan, Savannakhet and Attapeau. In view of the growing commercial and trading importance of Vientiane Municipality and Vientiane Province, the Mission also visited these areas to assess any impact on markets.
The Mission found that in keeping with the Government's strong emphasis on agricultural development in recent years, there has been appreciable growth in rice output due to increased adoption of high yielding varieties and an increase in the area under irrigated dry season farming. In addition, in spite of the floods during the last wet season, rainfall overall was satisfactory, resulting in generally favourable production. Although precipitation was slightly lower than in 1999, it was normal in most of the main rice producing provinces. Moreover, relative to flood losses in other countries, especially in Cambodia and Vietnam, and to the devastating floods in Lao PDR in 1991 and 1996, the extent of damage to agriculture in 2000 was lower. Based on official data for 2000 wet season production and a tentative forecast for the 2001 dry season, the Mission projects milled rice production for the current marketing year at some 1.28 million tonnes. In addition there are around 22 000 tonnes of bilateral programme and emergency rice aid pledged or delivered for 2001. Total rice availability will amount to approximately 1.30 million tonnes which would entirely cover estimated utilisation needs.
However the Mission notes that the area under dry season cropping may not entirely materialise due to flood damage to irrigation pumps and structures and high pump and other input costs which may deter producers. As the extent of dry season output would have a significant bearing on total rice availability and, possibly, needs, it is recommended that a subsequent assessment be undertaken at the time of the dry season harvest to verify the overall food supply situation.
Although based on current projections Lao PDR will have a generally satisfactory rice situation in 2001, poorer sections of the population are unlikely to benefit as the level of market integration and development remains low due to enormous problems of transport and access, inadequate market information and because rice production remains largely for subsistence and agricultural incomes are low. Moreover, these factors, together with the precariousness of farming systems and the lack of adequate coping strategies, will mean that in areas where the entire rice crop was lost to the floods last year, households in 2001 will be exposed to serious food shortages. Such households, therefore, will need external assistance to bridge the gap between now and the next harvest. In addressing their needs, the Mission used ongoing WFP vulnerability analysis undertaken in collaboration with the Government and other partners. Based on this analysis, it is estimated that approximately 450 000 people were most affected by the floods last year, of whom an estimated 390 000 do not have access to dry season cropping. Based on village baseline data, an estimated 170 000 are transitory food insecure due to the floods These people will on average have food deficits of six months on average, and 52 percent of these will have more than eight months deficit. To cover the food needs of these vulnerable groups, the Mission advocates a total of 15 000 tonnes of rice, of which 8 680 has already been covered under EMOP6300 and 6311. Up to mid-February almost 3 000 tonnes of glutinous rice have been delivered to 111 000 beneficiaries in 266 villages.
The prospects for the 2001 winter harvest in June/July remain favourable. Aggregate production of wheat and barley crops in 2000 is estimated at 62 000 tonnes, about the same as the previous year.
Imports of wheat in 2000/01 (July/June) are forecast at some 0.51 million tonnes, similar to last year.
Annual paddy production is around 2 million tonnes, with 60 percent from the main and 40 percent from the off season crop. Normally a third of domestic consumption requirements of rice are imported into the country, whilst wheat and maize are almost entirely imported. To enhance production, the Government has announced various strategies to enable sustainable food production and reduce dependency on imports. These include improving efficiency and productivity, introducing food production zones, strengthening marketing systems and food processing industries, developing infrastructure and human resources. The priority areas will be on rice, fruit, vegetables, fisheries and poultry farming.
Following the worst winter in decades last year, which seriously undermined the food security of large numbers of people especially nomadic herders, this year again the country faces a devastating winter which will greatly exacerbate food supply problems. Thick snow continues to disrupt transport and communications, whilst an estimated 114 000 nomadic families in 20 provinces remain stranded. Already the conditions have killed an estimated 850 000 animals, on which a third of the population rely entirely for their livelihood and income. Livestock losses are projected to reach 1 million by the end of the winter. Due to the conditions, there are also considerable problems in transporting food and medical supplies to areas where the population is particularly vulnerable to food shortages. The cold winter also comes on top of a summer drought which reduced the fodder crop for animals. The conditions are expected to deteriorate further as the winter progresses.
The impact of another cold winter and reduced fodder supplies on livestock will be of immense importance. The sector plays an extremely important part in the economy providing the main source of household income and contributing a major source of foreign exchange. The heavy loss of livestock and the consequent reduction in meat supplies, have also meant that there has been a large increase (up to 40 percent) in livestock prices. This in turn has had a knock-on effect on inflation and the cost of living further exacerbating the food security of the poor and vulnerable groups. In addition to meat, there is also a serious shortage of milk, especially in rural areas, further restricting an important source of protein and nutrients in the diet. It has also been very difficult for nomadic herd families to find alternative sources of income, as most are poorly educated and trained for alternative employment. Nonetheless, many have migrated to towns and urban centres compounding existing problems of un-employment and vulnerability to food shortages.
Current food shortages follow several years in which nutritional standards in he country have been falling due to significant changes in economic circumstance of large sectors of the population as the economy has been reoriented from one which was centrally planned to one which is market driven. This in particular has left many groups who were formally dependent on state employment and welfare exposed to economic uncertainties due to limited alternative earning opportunities. Various reports in the mid 1990s indicated that those most affected by poverty and food insecurity included the unemployed, the elderly, female headed households, children, pensioners and small herders. Recent studies by Save the Children Fund and ADRA report high levels of chronic malnutrition in a number of nomadic areas, with many families living in extreme poverty with almost no resources.
A UN/Government appeal for international assistance was launched at the end of January. The appeal was for vulnerable populations in the most severely affected provinces and on building the disaster management and co-ordination capacity of the State Emergency Commission (SEC) and other relevant national partners to enhance preparedness and future response. The appeal covers a period of four months, from 1 February to 31 May 2001 and is for US$7 million in cash and US$4.7 million in kind to assist beneficiaries in 73 affected counties.
Harvesting of the second, dry season paddy crop will commence from April and continue into May. The dry season crop accounts for around 15 percent of aggregate production the bulk coming from the main monsoon crop . Paddy production in 2000/01 marketing year is estimated at around 20 million tonnes.
The main crop currently in the ground is winter wheat, harvesting of which will commence from next month. Average wheat production in the last five years has been around one million tonnes. The government is considering ways to assist farmers affected by falling agricultural prices, by introducing fixed support prices. Last year, the price of paddy fell sharply, due to imports. The cost of production has also risen as various subsidies have been removed on inputs, like fertilizers and irrigation
The main crop currently in the ground is winter wheat which is planted in October/November for harvest in April/May. Due to severe drought and reduction in irrigation supplies production this year is forecast to decline from around 21 million tonnes last year to 17.5 million tonnes. The decline is attributed to both a reduction in area and yield. The shortage in irrigation supplies is reported to be the worst since completion of extensive irrigation network in the 1970s. The main reasons for the shortage are two consecutive weak monsoons and inadequate glacier and snow melt due to below normal snowfall and cooler than normal temperatures. In addition to production problems in irrigated areas, the rainfed crop, which is less than 10 percent of total production, is in poor condition, particularly in the southern province of Sindh, where water shortages are most acute and where harvest will begin shortly.
In view of successive poor rainfall years, concerns of food and water shortages are mounting in Baluchistan in the North West and Sindh in the south. Reports indicate that the situation for vulnerable groups is becoming critical. Rice farmers are reportedly being urged to switch to less water intensive crops.
Planting of main season maize and rice, for harvest from August/September and September/October respectively, will commence from April and extend into May. In the first two dekads of March, however, heavy rains in east, central and southern parts of the country disrupted field work. Paddy production for the 2000 calendar year was put at a record 12.45 million tonnes, up 4 percent from the previous year's harvest, whilst maize output was 4.5 million tonnes, some 2 percent lower than 1999. The increased availability of water in traditional maize producing areas led farmers to switch from maize to rice, which accounted for the reduction in maize production. The target for the current calendar year is 13 million tonnes, which the country aims to achieve through intensive agricultural extension; use of modern certified rice varieties and irrigation.
Despite considerable increases in domestic rice production, the country still does not produce sufficient quantities to meet demand. For the half of the current year, the National Food Authority (NFA) will import 450 000 tonnes of rice, which will be used to replenish stocks to provide a 90day national buffer for the lean period between July and September. Of targeted imports 200 000 tonnes are expected by March and the balance by June.
Prospects for the 2001 wheat crop, for harvest in April/May, are favourable following some good rains at the beginning of the season. Production of wheat in 2000 is estimated at 1.5 million tonnes, similar to the previous year but about 9 percent below the average.
No desert locusts were reported in January and February, but the good rains in late January are expected to have created suitable conditions for breeding.
Import of cereals in 2000/01 (July/June) is currently forecast at about 6.8 million tonnes, slightly lower than last year.
The main crop in the ground is currently the main Maha rice crop, which is planted in October to December for harvest from March. The crop is grown during the country's main rainy season; the north east monsoon. The main crop accounts for two thirds of annual production the rest coming from the dry season (Yala) crop. In the last five years from 1995 to 1999, paddy production has averaged around 2.5 million tonnes. In addition to rice, the country's main staple, some 850 000900 000 tonnes of wheat are imported annually to meet demand for bread and other wheat based products.
Despite late start of rains, prospects for the 2001 cereal crop to be harvested in April/May have somewhat improved with good rains received as the season progressed.
In 1999 and 2000 severe drought have decimated cereal crops and led to a significant increase in sheep mortality rates that seriously affected household incomes. Latest reports put the 2000 wheat production at 2.7 million tonnes, about 4 percent above the previous year's well below average crop but 25 percent below average. Barley production, which is almost entirely rainfed, is estimated at 130 000 tonnes, about 88 percent below the previous five-year average.
The outlook for the 2001 cereal harvest remains a cause for concern because of shortages of seed after last year's drought reduced crop, the poor state of the irrigation/water management system and inadequate drainage which is causing salination. Satellite imagery indicates that crops have come out of dormancy only in southern areas (Khatlon), where, however, early crop development is less than at the corresponding time last year. A severe drought has reduced the 2000 cereal harvest to 236 000 tonnes, down by 47 percent compared to 1999. Output of all other crops, including potatoes, vegetables and cotton have also been affected.
The severe drought last year has rendered almost half of the 6.2 million people in the country vulnerable to food shortages and donor response to the appeals for food aid have been slow. The cereal import requirement in the 2000/01 marketing year (July/June) is estimated at 792 000 tonnes. After taking into account a projected commercial import of some 403 000 tonnes and pledged food aid of 138 500 tonnes, the uncovered food aid requirement remains at 250 500 tonnes. A shortfall of this magnitude for this impoverished country, if not addressed by the international community, could have serious implications for the population. Many households are already in dire conditions and will find it difficult to bridge the lean season. An estimated 3 million people fall in this category, with about 2 million facing a very difficult situation. The evolving critical food supply, production and access situations need to be monitored carefully with a view to making adjustments to the ongoing assistance programmes and/or designing appropriate new ones.
WFP has launched an appeal for 126 000 tonnes of food aid worth $62 million to implement an emergency operation to assist over one million people who are in serious need of food assistance. The first large scale distributions started in December 2000 and are planned to be ongoing until June 2001. Without adequate assistance, about 1.2 million people will face a very difficult situation with virtually no employment opportunities or other sources of income to purchase food from the market.
Heavy rainfall in the first two dekads of March in southern and north-western parts of the country slowed fieldwork for second season rice. Earlier harvesting of main wet season rice crop was completed in January/February. 2000/01 rice production is forecast at around 24 million tonnes providing weather conditions remain satisfactory.
Rice exports dropped slightly from a record of 6.68 million tonnes in 1999 to 6.54 million tonnes last year. Exports are projected to decline further this year due to weaker demand.
Despite recent favourable rains, prospects the 2001 winter crops, to be harvested from June, are uncertain due to warm and dry weather in major producing areas. The 2000 wheat production is estimated at 19 million tonnes, about 5 percent above the previous year's reduced crop but about average.
The government has significantly reduced its grain support prices in June 2000 with the objective of reducing inflationary pressures and lowering government outlays. For instance, support prices for Anatolian Hard Red Wheat, which is most commonly produced, has been reduced by about 14 percent to 166 US$/tonne compared to 1999.
Turkey's state grain board (TMO) purchase from farmers in 2000 is estimated at about 4.5 million tonnes of cereals.
The 2001 winter crop remains mostly dormant except in southern areas of Mary. The area sown to winter cereals is planned to increase to 775 000 hectares, 100 000 hectares more than sown last year. The production target of winter cereals has been raised to 2 million tonnes, following the reported achievement of the 1.7 million tonne target in 2000 and aggregate cereal production (including maize and rice) estimated at 1.8 million tonnes. However, most private sources find the production estimate unrealistic. On the one hand, land privatization and private responsibility for production under leasehold has provided incentives to maximize yields. The bulk of cereals is grown in the winter and escaped the worst of the drought, although rice and cotton, both spring crops, were affected. Cotton output fell by 20 percent. Reflected imports of wheat and flour have also decreased sharply. On the other hand, the fact that wheat, rice and cotton are crops which remain under state marketing orders, and for which inputs can be mobilized, could also mean that the areas sown are being overestimated and inputs are diverted to other foodcrops. Unofficial sources indicate that actual wheat yields are between 1.5-2.0 tonnes per hectare rather than the 2.5 -2.6 tonnes per hectare officially reported since 1999. Salinization due to excessive irrigation of fragile desert soils and poor drainage is a growing problem.
Imports of wheat have fallen sharply in recent years. However, data on trade is difficult to come by but there are reports of informal flows of wheat flour.
At this early stage of the season, crop development is less than at the corresponding time last year in most areas except Tashkent oblast. However, this could be due to colder weather and/or later plantings. Early reports indicate that the area sown to winter cereals has increased slightly, despite late and reduced planting in the northern areas affected by severe water shortage in the summer and autumn of 2000. The final outcome will depend crucially on precipitation in the coming months and the adequacy of snow and glacier melt in neighbouring countries to replenish irrigation reserves affected by last year's drought.
The 2000 grain harvest is officially estimated at 3.9 million tonnes, below target (5.8 million tonnes) and some 10 percent below the previous year. Output was reduced as a result of a shortage of irrigation water following a mild winter and poor management of water resources, with catastrophic impacts on agriculture in the down river regions of the AmuDarya, the Autonomous Region of Karakalpakstan and Khorizem, but particularly the former. Output of cotton, a major export crop with which imports of wheat and machinery are financed, has fallen to 3 million tonnes compared to 3.6 million tonnes last year. The rice harvest (irrigated) is also sharply down to 155 000 tonnes from 421 000 tonnes in 1999.
Imports of foodstuffs have declined in recent years in part due to a sharp increase in cereal production (notably wheat), and in part, to maximize funds available for the creation of import substituting industries. Nevertheless, the import requirement for wheat in 2000/01 is estimated at over 800 000 tonnes. The bulk of cereal imports will be mobilized commercially but the government has requested (and received) 38 200 tonnes of durum wheat for pasta production. Larger volumes of cereals than normal will have to be transferred to drought affected populations. Budget constraints may reduce the capacity of the government to make adequate provision for the affected populations but the central government has not requested any emergency food assistance. A rapid nutrition assessment in November-December in Karakalpakstan showed low levels of acute malnutrition but led MSF to conclude that there is evidence for widespread stunting in children under five.
Harvesting of winter spring rice has begun in the south and will commence shortly in the north. Generally, in the north the crop is planted in January to March for harvest in June/July, whilst in the south planting and harvesting are around a month earlier. In view of weaker rice prices cropped area has declined. Consequently to stimulate production and replenish stocks, the Government recently introduced a floor paddy procurement price. The minimum price has been set at 1 300 dong ($1=VND14 536) a kilogram. Other measures to stimulate production include the postponement of firsthalf year agricultural taxes from rice farmers till the end of June.
Due to a slow down in rice trade in the world market, rice export revenues were lower in 2000 than anticipated. Compared to a revised target of 3.8 million tonnes some 3.7 million tonnes were exported. The 2001 rice export target has been set at 4 million tonnes.
Rainfall and temperatures for the main, sorghum and millet crops to be harvested towards the end of the year, are reported to be normal. Total cereal output in 2000 is estimated at 721 000 tonnes, similar to the average for the previous five years.
The Desert Locust situation remains calm but with recent winter rains along the Red Sea coastal plains, conditions are likely to be favourable for breeding.
Imports of cereals in 2000, mainly wheat, are estimated at some 2.6 million tonnes.
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