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Economic viability of nfp

The survey of forest products consumption and national forest resources inventory conducted under nfp have attempted to quantify the demand and the supply. They both had their limitations. The demand survey was conducted in a distorted demographic situation; with some 3.0 million people from Southern Sudan (10% of the total population) displaced by the civil war to the most wood-deficit areas of Sudan. Again, due to the civil war, the forest inventory was restricted to areas north of Lat 10ْ . In this way the most tree covered, wood-surplus areas of Southern Sudan, Southern Blue Nile and Southern Darfur were not covered.

The demand survey indicated that the per capita annual wood consumption in 1994 was 0.653 cm. The total consumption of wood in 1994 was 15.771 million m³. Projected to 1998, the total consumption was 18.19 million m³. The forest inventory covered 62.27 million ha, equivalent to 24.9% of the total surface area of the country. Of the inventoried part the forest area with 10% crown cover or more was 4.94 million ha. The total standing wood volume in the inventoried area was 166 675 600 m³, with an overall average of 2.49 m³/ha. The annual allowable cut was calculated at 11.67 million m³ , on the basis of 7% of the total standing volume. On the face of it there is an annual over-cutting of 7.0 million cm., in which case the supply of goods and services by the forestry sector is not sustainable. But, taking into consideration the fact that half the population of the forested part of the country (the South) live temporally in the forest deficit part (the North), and that the entire forested part had not been inventoried, and the recent changes in energy supply and consumption on the advent of Sudan's utilization of its oil resources, the sustainability of supply of goods and services is perhaps better than it looks.

Resource requirements to manage forests sustainably to generate goods and services at the current level.

The Forestry Resources Conservation Project (FRCP) which was the outcome of FSR (1.2.1.) was costed at US $ 59.2 million. Not nearly half of it was realised. Some of the components have been implemented. Other components have changed in nature and so has their cost. Several projects have subsequently been formulated and party funded as indicated in table (6). But due to the decentralization process, expansion in forestry education, the lag in forestry research and the need to rehabilitate the areas denuded of forests before and after the nfp, it is reckoned that something twice to the magnitude of the FSR is required to sustainably generate the envisaged goods and services.

 

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