3. OVERVIEW OF NUMBERS OF STUDENTS

3.1 Description of Qualifications Offered

The German universities reported data for the traditional Diplom which would translate into English as Diploma. This degree is studied over four and a half years, with the half year usually being in placed practical work. In recent years, in accord with the Bologna agreement, the diploma has been replaced or augmented by a three years Bachelors degree and a one and a half years Masters. Most students proceed from the Bachelors to the Masters, thus completing four and a half years and gain a qualification equivalent to the old diploma. In Scotland the pattern is a three year ordinary Bachelors followed by one year to gain a BSc with honours. In England the undergraduate degree is one year shorter, i.e. two plus one to achieve honours, reflecting the fact that English students stay in school for a year longer than the minimum expected in Scotland. For this exercise, therefore, it seems reasonable to treat the German Diploma, the German Masters and the British Bachelors with Honours as being equivalent qualifications. For convenience these will simply be termed "degrees".

Also in this category, although from a rather different education philosophy, are the Bachelor degrees from the University of Central Lancashire (Newton Rigg) and Inverness College. The former have offered since 1996 a four year sandwich (i.e. one year in the middle spent on practical work in the woods) Bachelors degree in Forest and Woodland Management. Both Newton Rigg and Inverness have top-up courses that enable students who have completed the technical diploma to study for a further year to convert their qualification into a Bachelors degree (a total study period of three years plus one year on practical work in the woods). Students can come from other institutions, including some from outside Britain, to take these conversion courses. Newton Rigg have recently offered this conversion course on a distance learning basis over two years.

Most institutions offer post-graduate MSc degree programmes. In Britain these degrees at Aberdeen, Bangor, Edinburgh and Oxford can serve either as a specialism on top of a previous forestry year or, more usually, as a conversion on top of a previous non-forestry degree (generally in a related subject such as botany or ecology). Although many of these MSc programmes were designed primarily for overseas students they have become increasingly populated by home students, except possibly at Edinburgh. Other than at Oxford numbers are usually small. As graduates from both types of courses compete for the same jobs the data for these MSc degrees will sometimes be compounded with the undergraduate degrees discussed above and sometimes analysed separately.

Freiburg reported figures for their two year Master of Sustainable Forestry and Land Use Management which is only for students who already posses a forestry degree and is directed entirely at foreign students. Tharandt also has a two year Masters in Tropical Forestry but they have compounded the data for this in with those for the Bachelors and Masters.

Technical qualifications in Britain have a confusing terminology, often based around the words "diploma" and "certificate", with the latter being in some way or another a lesser qualification than the former. It is important to understand that these diplomas are not equivalent to those offered by German universities.

The longest established qualification is the Higher National Diploma which is modelled on the forestry courses originally provided within the state forest service. Students were originally required to have some experience of working in the woods when recruited but this is no longer insisted upon. The first year is spent in the classroom, the second on supervised experience in the woods followed by a final year in the classroom. Such diploma courses are offered by Newton Rigg, Inverness, Myerscough and Sparsholt. The latter also offers a National Diploma in Forestry, again a three year course. The numbers on these programmes have been totalled for purpose of analysis.

There are also shorter technical programmes of one or two years, usually called certificates. Again these have been totalled for the purposes of analysis.

3.2 Numbers Accepted to study for Degrees in Great Britain

Acceptance on degree programmes are shown in Table 3.1 separated into the total of those accepted by the "old universities", i.e. Aberdeen, Bangor, Edinburgh and Oxford, and the new degrees offered since 1994 by the University of Central Lancashire, since 1996 by Inverness College and since 2000 by Myerscough, together with the total of all degrees.

Table 3.1 Numbers accepted onto degree programmes in Britain by year, both totalled for programmes at the old universities and for new programmes elsewhere, as well as the total for all programmes.

The numbers admitted remained fairly steady, or even climbed slightly, until 1997 since when there has been a marked decline in the numbers accepted on degree programmes at the old universities but not on the new degree courses. The decline at the old universities was such that by the end of the period there was an overall decline despite the steady popularity of the new degree programmes.

It would be unwise to assume that the new degree programmes are simply robbing applicants from the old for undoubtedly many of those graduating with the new Bachelor degrees would originally have graduated with technician diplomas. However, some well qualified students are undoubtedly opting to study the more vocationally orientated degrees at the new universities rather than seek admittance to an old university.

3.3 Numbers Accepted to study for Technical Diplomas in Britain

These are programmes of three years duration with an inculcated practical year. The values for the first four years at Inverness are only estimated (but are unlikely to be out by more than 2 or 3) so figures for these years should be treated with a little caution.

Table 3.2 Numbers accepted onto technical diploma programmes in Britain by year

Increasing numbers were accepted until 1999 since when there has been a fall off, a decline that continued into 2002 (data not shown).

3.4 Numbers Accepted to study for Technical Certificates in Britain

These are courses of one or two years' duration full-time or two or three years part-time.

Table 3.3 Numbers accepted onto certificate programmes in Britain by year.

The rise between 1995 and 1997 was due to the appearance of new programmes at widely differing parts of the country. If the only two courses that existed over the entire decade are considered the figures from 1995 on become 42, 43, 45, 36, 25, 38, and 30 with the fall being entirely among those students studying forestry, the ones studying arboriculture remaining fairly constant at around 17 to 19.

3.5 Numbers Applying to Study Forestry in Britain

Acceptances do not reveal the real extent of any problem because they can hide how close the tail is getting to the head, i.e. numbers are being kept up by accepting poorer qualified students. Data on numbers of applicants, as against acceptances, is harder extracted from records so relatively few institutions were able to respond to this request. In any case simply totalling numbers of applicants across institutions, even if possible, would be misleading because interested students invariably apply to two or three universities or colleges and select their preferred one at a later date. There would be multiple counting if totals are used. Fortunately complete data on numbers applying were provided for at least one post-graduate Masters degree, one Bachelors degree, one diploma and one certificate programme. This data is given in table 3.4.

Table 3.4 Numbers applying for entry to specific programmes in four different institutions in Britain, by year.

A proportion of the fall in applicants to most of these programmes might be ascribed to the increasing number of programmes to choose from. However, this can only be a very small part of the explanation. There can be little doubt that in Britain the interest in studying forestry at almost all levels has fallen dramatically since about 1997. A longer run of figures would show a slow decline since some time in the 1970s with a small recovery in the early 1990s, but the rapid fall in the last five years is nothing short of catastrophic. There is little suggestion of any improvement, for example in 2002 applicants for the Bachelors course shown above amounted to 37, and acceptance to 9, as against a target of around 40.

Acceptances as a proportion of applicants for these courses are shown in Table 3.5.

Table 3.5 Acceptances as a percentage of applicants for the British programmes shown in Table 3.4.

There is some indication in these figures of a small increase in the proportion of applicants accepted onto the MSc and Bachelor programmes with time, but not such an increase as would imply a disturbing drop of standards. The diploma figures, by contrast, suggest that it was considerably easier to gain acceptance in the latter part of the decade than earlier, however this may in some part be due to the introduction of new degree programmes. Nothing very much can be concluded from the figures for the certificate programme.

3.6 Numbers Seeking and Gaining Professional Status in Britain

As already discussed, the Institute of Chartered Foresters in Britain set professional examinations, the Part II of which has to be passed by all wishing to become Chartered Foresters, irrespective of initial academic qualifications. The numbers sitting and passing this qualification are detailed in Table 3.6.

Table 3.6 Candidates sitting and passing ICF Part II professional exams.

Again a drop but interestingly there is no sign of the delay that might be expected given that applicants have to have been in professional employment for at least two years since graduating before they can take this examination. However, there are many routes to this examination. Suffice it to say that numbers are now worryingly low.

3.7 Numbers Accepted to study at University in Germany

The total numbers of students accepted onto undergraduate degree programmes (Diploma, Bachelors and Masters) at the four forestry universities in Germany are shown in Table 3.7.

Table 3.7 Total numbers of students accepted onto degree programmes in Germany by year

There was a steady and worrying fall throughout the first half of the decade, when interestingly British figures were if anything rising, but then, just when the comparable figures in Britain started to decline rapidly, those in Germany started to show a strong improvement, increasing by 40% between 1996 and 2000. The pattern was remarkably similar at every institutions, all showing the initial decline, although this was less marked at Tharandt and Göttingen, followed by a rise to a peak in 1998, a marked drop thereafter followed by a recovery that was most pronounced at Freiburg..

3.8 Numbers Accepted to study at Fachhochschule in Germany

Two institutions provided relevant figures, although in one case not for the full number of years surveyed because of a change in curriculum in 1995.

Table 3.8 Numbers of students accepted by two Fachhochschule in Germany

There is no strong evidence of any decline in these figures, although Institution A was admitting a few more in the first half of the decade than in the second.

3.9 Numbers Applying to Study at University in Germany

An incomplete run of data on numbers of applicants was provided by one university.

Table 3.9 Numbers applying to study forestry at one university in Germany and the percentage accepted onto the course.

Despite the rise in number of students accepted by the university in Table 3.9 over the decade numbers of applicants appear to have fallen somewhat over the same period, hence the percentage accepted has increased.

3.10 Numbers Applying to study at Fachhochschule in Germany

Details from two fachhochschules are given in Table 3.10. At the first of these there has been a dramatic decline in numbers applying from 1992 until 1998 and as a result the percentage accepted rose from about 15% to over 40% during the decade. The pattern at the other institution is less obvious because the data set only starts in 1995; however, what information that is available shows no indication of a decline in interest although the proportion accepted has been around 40% or a little more over the period 1995 to 2001. Any fall prior to 1995 would not be shown by these figures.

Table 3.10 Numbers applying to study forestry at two German Fachhochschule and the percentages accepted.

3.11 Post-graduate taught Masters

Details of one of the post-graduate masters programmes in Britain and one in Germany are given in Tables Table 3.11 below.

Table 3.11 Numbers of students accepted to for a post-graduate Masters degree at one German university and on British (see also Tables 3.4 and 3.5).

*Changes in the structure of the programme meant no students enrolled in 1997

The fall in enrolment in Britain is much more marked than in the German university, although at another British university (Table 3.4) numbers have declined much less dramatically than at either of the above. To some extent numbers on all of these programmes are dependent on recruiting foreign students so are presumably very susceptible to the amounts of foreign aid available at any particular time.

3.12 Drop-out Rates

In Germany many students take longer than the minimum period to complete their degrees and in Britain a variable number in each cohort may opt to take a voluntary year out to gain practical experience. Because of this it is difficult to match figures for graduation to those for acceptances to establish the numbers that drop-out, i.e. fail to complete the qualification they have enrolled upon. The British figures, however, do suggest that for degrees, diplomas and certificates it is rare to have more than three students drop-out from any one cohort and it is usually much less than this. One exception is those studying part-time where drop-out rates can be quite high. In Germany, by contrast, drop-out rates seem to have ranged from 10% to in excess of 40%, with some suggestion of an improvement in recent years.