CHINA (12 September)
Total cereal output in mainland China in 2003 is expected to fall by 2.8 percent from 399 million tonnes in 2002 to 387 million tonnes, reflecting a decline in planted area and unfavourable weather conditions. Many areas have been switched to more profitable crops such as vegetables, flowers, tea, fruits and soybeans. In the western provinces, the government forestry policy has reduced grain-planting areas, while farmers in the northeast have switched from corn, rice and wheat to soybeans for the higher returns from government support. The reduction of cereal output this year may also be attributed to bad weather. The spring drought in the northeast, flooding along the centrally located Huai river and high temperatures in the south of China hurt summer grain and rice production.
Extremely hot and dry weather in July was relieved in part of southern China in early August. However, little or no rain has been reported in most of Fujian, Jiangxi and Zhejiang since late August, raising concerns about the status of the maturing rice crop, which is usually harvested during October and November. About 30 percent of the late double-crop rice is grown in the three provinces where the driest conditions still prevail. Topsoil moisture in most of the three provinces declined to very low levels during early September as afternoon temperatures close to 40 °C were recorded. Meanwhile, Guangdong, Hunan and Anhui, also major rice provinces, were hit by violent rainstorms during the summer. China’s 2003 rice output is currently expected to remain at the same level as the previous year at 174 million tonnes. The output of early rice, already harvested in May and June, was estimated 3 percent lower than last year at 29.5 million tonnes, the lowest level since 1985.
In the first dekad of September, 200 percent more rain than normal fell across the North China Plain and temperatures were low. The wet and cool weather is unfavourable for the late development of maize. Mainland China’s 2003 maize crop is officially estimated at 116 million tonnes, down 4.4 percent from the previous year and 3.7 percent below the average of the past five years.
Facing foreign competition within the framework of the World Trade Organization, Taiwan’s farmers are growing less rice on fewer acres. Rice output in 2003 is forecast at 1.7 million tonnes, some 8 percent below the average of the previous five years.