CANADA (9 February)
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada reported their outlook for the 2004/05 crop seeding in early February. The relatively small winter wheat crop for harvest in 2004 has already been sown and the area is estimated at some 600 000 hectares, about 10 percent down from the record level in the previous year. Plantings decreased sharply in Eastern Canada due to poor conditions in the autumn for fieldwork. Early indications for the main spring wheat crop to be sown later this year point to a marginal decrease in soft wheat area and production but a significant increase for durum. The soft wheat area is expected to decrease by about 4 percent in response to a reduced price outlook compared to the previous year, particularly for soft wheat relative to some other crops. Thus, even assuming normal weather throughout the season and an average yield, production could decline marginally to just about 19 million tonnes. By contrast, the durum seeded area is expected to increase by about 4 percent, reflecting continued premiums for durum in the previous year compared to soft wheat. Furthermore, assuming that the average durum yield returns to normal after a poor level in 2003, durum output is expected to increase by over 20 percent to about 5.2 million tonnes. The aggregate wheat crop in 2004 is tentatively forecast at about 24.3 million tonnes, 3.3 percent up from 2003.
Production of coarse grains is also expected to increase in 2004 by about 5 percent to 27.9 million tonnes. Although the area seeded to barley, the main coarse grain, is forecast to decrease slightly, the amount cut for fodder is expected to be less than the average in recent years and thus the area harvested for grain should increase. Barley yields also seen to increase somewhat this year after drier than normal conditions continued to affect some crops last year. However, as in the previous year, cereal yields in 2004 will depend largely on timely rains as sub-soil moisture conditions remain below normal in some areas still suffering from the drought since 2002.