CHINA (10 February)
Mainland China’s grain area (rice, wheat and maize) has been declining by 2.8 percent annually since 1998, and even more for wheat (5 percent) due to urbanization and government agricultural policies. Wheat output in 2003 declined to its lowest level since the mid-1980s with the area reduced to the lowest level since 1950. Maize output for 2003 was some 7 million tonnes lower than in 2002, and rice some 8.8 million tonnes lower compared to last year’s level. The steady decline in output has forced the government to draw from state-held stocks to meet domestic demand. The government recently has set the 2004 target of grain output which is 20 million tonnes more than that of 2003 grain output.
Wheat production declined in 2003 for the fourth year in a row to 86 million tonnes, some 5 percent below 2002 and 15 percent below the average of the past five years. The decline is mostly attributed to the reduction of wheat planting areas. The sowing of winter wheat due for harvest in May and June 2004 has been completed, and the area planted is estimated to have declined slightly from last year. The condition of most of the wheat crop in the northern China plains is normal, and the recent cold weather has not significantly affected crops in dormancy.
The harvesting of maize in China was completed last November. The estimate for maize output has not changed from the last estimate of 114 million tonnes, some 6 percent below 2002 and 5.4 below the average of the previous five years.
To date, 14 of the 31 provinces in Mainland China have confirmed or suspected outbreaks of the avian influenza virus, which has reduced domestic demand for animal feeds such as soy meal and maize. More than 1.2 million chickens have been destroyed. So far 98 000 fowl have been destroyed on farms infected with the virus in Taiwan.